Saturday Links


A couple of Marlins' links for your Saturday perusal.

Roto Hardball has a piece up by Marc Normandin on Ozzie Guillen's impact on the 2012 Marlins. As Normandin points out, Ozzie Guillen loves to have his team steal bases and the previous Marlins' administrations avoided stolen bases like the plague. Speaking of Bonifacio, Coghlan, and potentially Jose Reyes, Normandin says that

whether these guys are considered threats or not, if they are capable of stealing, Ozzie is going to send them more often than they are used to. It's something to remember on draft day when trying to shore up those stolen base numbers.

Ricky Nolasco is a player who never seems to live up to his potential. Baseball Prospectus has a piece up (behind the subscription wall) by Derek Carty and Jason Collette that debates Nolasco's 2012 ownability.

To summarize Carty's anti-Nolasco argument:

I know it’s tempting to look at Nolasco, see that he has posted four straight seasons with a FIP, xFIP, and SIERA all below 4.00, and fervently circle his name on your cheat sheet, but there are reasons to be very cautious. Yes, his overall numbers are good, but he struggles mightily with runners on base, and that’s when it matters most; that’s when runs score. If you’re expecting 2012 to finally be the year that Nolasco’s ERA comes down to match his FIP, you’re probably going to be disappointed.

Collette argues that a lot of the problem is that John Buck is a terrible catcher who can't control the run game because ALL the Marlins starters struggle with runners on base.

The move indoors to a friendlier environment that will help his balls in play when the roof is closed and help keep him out of the heat that has worn him out by mid-August each season are just two of the reasons why I will take yet another chance on Nolasco in 2012. The skills from 2008 are still there, somewhere.

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