The Kansas City Royals: The Next Fantasy Gold Mine
For years, the mere mention of the Kansas City Royals has sparked gales of laughter among baseball fans, fantasy or otherwise. Aside from a Carlos Beltran here or a Mike Sweeney there, for the better part of two decades, the Royals' fantasy cupboard has been bare. In the last ten years, the only truly noteworthy things to come out of Kansas City have been Zack Greinke and a viral video featuring George Brett discussing his gastrointestinal problems. Most years, Kansas City was regarded as a dead zone on draft day. However, as Roger Waters might proclaim in a pretentious concept album, the tide is turning.
The stacked Kansas City farm system is just now starting to bear fruit at the major league level, and any astute fantasy manager should keep a close eye on what is transpiring in the Royals lineup. The team wielded a surprisingly potent offense last season and looks poised to become even more imposing as their young hitters develop further. For the first time in a long time, the Royals are projected to feature a collection of major fantasy producers, and if you're paying attention, you're the one who stands to benefit.
Let's get the big one out of the way first. Eric Hosmer made waves in the big leagues in 2011 by bashing 19 home runs and putting his name in the running for AL Rookie of the Year. His sweet swing and power potential have had scouts drooling since he was drafted. He has legitimate 30 homer/100 RBI ability that could manifest itself as soon as this season and he could realistically turn into a Top 10 first baseman at the tender age of 22. Other managers might fall all over themselves going after Prince Fielder, but Hosmer might be nearly as good for half the cost.
He's not one of the young 'uns, per se, but Alex Gordon is Exhibit A for why high-round talents continue to get myriad opportunities in the big leagues. After being essentially written off as a bust, Gordon finally had the year we knew he had in him, bashing 23 home runs, OPSing .879, and even stealing 17 bases. Gordon has always had the ability to post these kinds of numbers, and I don't think there's good reason to think his 2011 was a fluke; sometimes it just takes certain players longer to click. While it would be nice if he were doing this while still third base eligible, Gordon is a solid mid-round pick for your outfield and there's an outside chance he could be a 30 homer guy.
Next we come to two of my favorite 2012 sleeper picks on the team. Mike Moustakas was horrible upon being called up to the majors this year, and if you're lucky, that bad stretch left a lasting impression in the minds of the other managers in your league. Moustakas absolutely mashed in the final month of the season and I'm predicting a major breakout from him this season. This is a guy who bombed 36 home runs between AA and AAA as a 21-year-old in 2010. He's going to be a monster, and with the overall lack of quality at third base, he could be an insane bargain this year.
The other super-sleeper candidate is Salvador Perez, the 21-year-old catcher who stole the starting catcher job with the big club when they got tired of the craptastic stylings of Matt Treanor. Perez had a rep as a defense-first catcher in the minors, but his hitting got better at each level and he raked to a .334 tune in his two-month stint as a regular in Kansas City. He probably doesn't project to hit for much power but, come on now, he's a catcher who can hit .300 and he's definitely worth a late-round flyer. The Royals are known for self-immolation and could go the Bryan Pena route, but if Perez is announced as the starter, take a very long look.
Johnny Giavotella is a player whose production would be uninspiring in a vacuum, but at the barren second base position, his ability to hit .300 with doubles power makes him a person of interest. Like Perez, Giavotella was given a starting role for the last two months of the season when the Royals realized they had been starting a charred husk (i.e. Chris Getz) at the position. There have been rumblings that Giavotella doesn't have the glove to handle second base, which would suck for any potential buyers. For now, however, second base is his to lose and he could be a nice source of batting average and steals at a position that is hard to fill with quality.
Finally, I'd be remiss if I failed to mention one of my favorite prospects, masher Wil Myers. Myers' future as a catcher is officially dead, but his bat, which includes opposite field pop and a knowledge of the strike zone to die for, should pretty much play anywhere. The Royals bafflingly decided to extend Jeff Francoeur for two more seasons, effectively blocking Myers's path to the majors, which means Myers is headed to AAA to start the season. However, if he rakes enough and Francoeur reverts back to his feeble pre-2011 ways, Myers could come in and have a major fantasy impact in the second half of the season. Think something along the lines of, well...Jeff Francoeur in 2005, only with way more walks and a lot less clueless hacking. He's a must for keeper leaguers, but everyone else should at least keep an eye on him.
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Myers
I did not realize he played AA ball last year. Will they move him to AAA to start the season with Franceour blocking him? Or will they take it slow with him now?
Moustakas-I would mention that he hit .283 in August and .352 in September this season, after hitting just .160 in July and .260 in June. He will have to be more consistent with the power from month to month as he hit just 1 HR in June and 4 in September. I am sure he will.
Perez-will he repeat the .362 BABIP in ‘12? He doesn’t walk much, but I can see a .270-.280 BA should the BABIP drop, as expected.
Ray Guilfoyle
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Myers
He will probably start the season back at AA, even though he absolutely crushed in the AFL. The Royals like to take it slow, and, at just 20 years old, Myers has plenty of time for some more seasoning. I would expect a fairly quick move to AAA, though, and a possible cup of coffee in September. I traded him for Chase Utley and Matt Joyce in my keeper league last year, and am trying to get him back now.
Perez should lock up the CF job out of spring training, I am very interested to see how he responds to full-time ABs. That BABIP is unsustainable with his extreme contact rate (84.9%, jesus). Even our pie-in-the-sky buddy Bill James has it dropping to a more legitimate .306. The BB and K rates seem to be his norm, both quite low. He actually has a very interesting batting profile; extreme contact, not exactly a slap hitter, but no real power, and no speed at all.
Small sample size shenanigans are rampant in Perez’s 2011, obviously. Even though his BABIP was sky-high, his line drive percentage was 25% (by comparison, Billy Butler’s was 20%). Looks like he was at least hitting balls hard. I think his upside is something like a somewhat better, right-handed version of A.J. Pierzynski.
Everything I’ve read has Myers starting the year in AAA, but I could be wrong. He didn’t have a great year in AA last season, and it wouldn’t be surprising if the Royals started him there this spring, seeing as how a lot of prospects skip AAA anyway.
Your writing is the only thing giving your alcoholism any credibility. -Stewie Griffin
The Royals don't like to skip levels
I wouldn’t be surprised to see him start in AAA, after he absolutely destroyed the AFL. I could also see them starting him back in AA, just to make sure he’s outgrown the level, then moving him up.
I think Perez’s LD% was even higher, actually, maybe 29%?
Yeah, just looked it up, 29.2%. He’s got potential to hit for decent average, solid doubles, but I don’t see those doubles becoming HRs, like we are still kind of hoping for from Butler.
Cain
anyone have any thoughts on how he will handle full time at bats in the big leagues this season?
Ray Guilfoyle
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My expectations are modest
He’ll be 26 just after Opening Day, which seems to be largely due to having to completely repeat the Brewers’ minor league system, after making it all the way to AAA in 2008. Anybody have any insight on this? Seems unusual, and I can’t find any explanation for it after exhaustively checking one page of Google results.
His power saw an unprecedented jump at AAA for the Royals last year, so we’ll see if that is legitimate. It accompanied a much lower walk rate, however. His K% has dropped a bit over the last few years, which is encouraging. The speed seems decent, too, and I would think, with good coaching, he could potentially steal 30 bases a couple of seasons.
Bill James is unsurprisingly bullish on him, with a triple slash of .284/.337/.416. I would maybe drop the average and OBP a little bit, as his LD% doesn’t make a BABIP of .334 all that likely. I see a slightly above average regular, probably only fantasy relevant for relatively deep leagues.
by pooptallica on Nov 17, 2011 11:14 AM EST up reply actions
Cain
I thought about including Cain here, but is he really considered much of a prospect anymore? Most of the scouting gurus I’ve read have him as an extra outfielder-type who can’t handle center for a full season. Of course, if he sustains the power from last year, I’ll look pretty dumb.
Your writing is the only thing giving your alcoholism any credibility. -Stewie Griffin

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