Who Would You Rather Have: Alex Gordon or Andrew McCutchen?

by Ray Guilfoyle on Nov 14, 2011 6:31 AM EST in Baseball

KANSAS CITY, MO - SEPTEMBER 17: Alex Gordon #4 of the Kansas City Royals breaks his bat as he hits a RBI single in the fourth inning during a game against the Chicago White Sox at Kauffman Stadium on September 17, 2011 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images)

I have started looking at my Top 50 Outfielder Rankings, which will be published on November 28th, and was surprised to see how similar Alex Gordon and Andrew McCutchen were in 2011. McCutchen is one of my favorite fantasy players, and he is NOT a Dodger. Shocking right? I just love hitters who can go 20-20, and McCutchen reached the 20-20 club for the first time in 2011.

But Gordon became another personal favorite of mine earlier this season, as he was a feel good story after getting off to a hot start to the 2011 season, and finally reaching his potential after a few hiccups at the big league level. Gordon was probably drafted in the mid to late teen rounds in fantasy drafts in 2011, while McCutchen was probably a 4th-5th round choice, yet they ended up with very similar stats. McCutchen will still probably be ranked higher amongst fantasy outfielders heading into 2012 fantasy drafts, but if you focused on their 2011 stats, you would think they should be ranked right much closer.

Let's take a look at their 2011 stats after the jump:

Here are the 2011 stats for Alex Gordon followed by Andrew McCutchen's, courtesy of Baseball-Reference:

Alex Gordon

Year	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	TB
2011	151	688	611	101	185	45	4	23	87	17	67	139	.303	.376	.502	.879	140	307
162 Game Avg.	162	675	595	85	156	38	3	20	72	13	66	145	.262	.343	.434	.777	108	258

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/13/2011.

Andrew McCutchen

Year	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	TB
2011	158	678	572	87	148	34	5	23	89	23	89	126	.259	.364	.456	.820	127	261
162 Game Avg.	162	704	608	98	168	37	7	20	77	30	82	115	.276	.365	.458	.822	123	278

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/13/2011.

McCutchen stole a few more bases and drove in a few more runs than Gordon, but Gordon scored more runs and had a better triple slash line than McCutchen last season. Gordon did benefit from a career high BABIP of .358, 100 points higher than his 2010 BABIP, and from a 23.2% line drive rate as well, so fantasy owners have to decide if Gordon's 2011 season was a career year or a sign that he has turned the corner and is finally reaching the potential we all projected from him several years ago. A few positives in Gordon's 2011 season were the increase in power last year as his .502 slugging percentage and .200 ISO indicates, and the 17 stolen bases. Royals manager Ned Yost gave the Royals the green light quite often last season, and I don't see that changing in 2012. Can Gordon become the next 20-20 hitting outfielder in 2012?

McCutchen also enjoyed an increase in power last year as he hit 23 HRs and 62 extra bases hits, but also experienced a drop in stolen bases from 33 in 2010 to 23 in 2011. Coming into the 2011 season, I projected McCutchen to steal 40 bases after reading manager Clint Hurdle's spring training comments that the Pirates would be more aggressive on the bases, but he didn't come close. He set career highs in walk rate-13.1%-and ISO-.198-and I am curious if he has laid the building blocks for a monster season in 2012. Another fantasy baseball writer has projected that he could put up a 30-30 season in 2012, and I can see where he is coming from as the increase in walks should result in more stolen base attempts next season. He also hit more line drives-20.0%-and more fly balls-41.7%- than ever before, and his HR/FB rate increased from 8.7% in 2010 to 12.2% in 2011.

So, Fake Teamers, who would you rather have in 2012? Heading into 2012 fantasy drafts, I would lean toward McCutchen, but if he were already off the board, I would not hesitate to draft Gordon, as I can see him building on his breakout 2011 season.

Poll

Who would you rather have in 2012: Alex Gordon or Andrew McCutchen?

McCutchen

111 votes

Gordon

44 votes

155 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

Surprise

I am surprised McCutch stole so few bases in 2011. My decision would be McCutch because i do not believe the drop in SB is real.

If McCutch’s drop in SBs is real, then i would take Gordon – 5 round later (?). His power production looks more likely to remain high as his 45 doubles attest.

by faketeams on Nov 14, 2011 8:45 AM EST reply actions

McCutch

I believe in the speed more than the power, so 2012 should be telling as far as what type of player he will be.

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Nov 14, 2011 10:12 AM EST up reply actions

Gordon

I agree on the power….he had 72 XBHs last year, so it appears to be no fluke. The stolen bases only increases his value. I just wonder if he will hit over .300 again.

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Nov 14, 2011 12:48 PM EST up reply actions