MLB Trade Rumors: Thoughts on Albert Pujols, Jose Reyes, Matt Kemp, Carlos Beltran and Others
Before I get started, I just want to thank everyone who participated in the fantasy baseball chat I held on Wednesday afternoon. It was a spur of the moment decision, so I didn't expect a great turnout. Usually with these chats, the more you hold them, the more people end up participating, so I will try to have them once a week or every two weeks going forward.
We learned last night that the Rockies have shown interest in Braves outfielder Martin Prado, which makes plenty of sense. Prado had a bit of a down year in 2011, hitting .260-.302-.381 with 13 HRs, 57 RBI, 66 runs and 4 stolen bases in 129 games. His triple slash line was the lowest of his career, mainly due to bad luck, as his BABIP of .266 was also the lowest of his career. I think Prado could have an excellent bounce back season in 2012 if he is traded to the Rockies. In return for giving up Prado, it is rumored that the Braves could get Rockies outfielder Seth Smith, who would probably play left field for the Braves. Prado would play second base for the Rockies. This rumored deal couldn't be more perfect for both teams.
Looking at the Rockies outfield without Smith, it appears Charlie Blackmon could get the left field job in 2012. But, I also would not rule out outfield prospect Tim Wheeler. Wheeler hit .287-.365-.535 with 33 HRs, 86 RBI, 105 runs scored and 21 stolen bases in 138 games at AA Tulsa in 2011.
More trade rumor thoughts after the jump:
If you are a top free agent this offseason, more than likely you are being courted by the Miami Marlins of all teams. The Marlins are moving into a new stadium in 2012, and they want to make sure the stadium is full on most nights. The Marlins have been tied to shortstop Jose Reyes, starter Mark Buerhle, outfielder Carlos Beltran, third baseman Aramis Ramirez and possibly Prince Fielder or Albert Pujols.
Marlins president David Samson stated in an interview on Wednesday that Reyes is "one of their top priorities". This statement assumes they will be signing more than one big free agent this offseason. Reyes makes sense for the Marlins as long as current shortstop Hanley Ramirez moves over to third base. Reyes would certainly fill the new Marlins new stadium.
What doesn't make sense to me is why the Marlins would be interested in signing Carlos Beltran. They already have Logan Morrison in left field and Mike Stanton in right field. Beltran in center field? Not happening. I remember reading that some thought he was having trouble playing right field this season, so there is no way he plays center for the Marlins. But, should Morrison get dealt, Beltran could be a fit in left field for the Marlins. Morrison has been linked to the Rays and a Morrison for James Shields deal would make plenty of sense if Morrison is trade bait.
Dodgers outfielder Matt Kemp wants to stay in LA and the Dodgers, obviously, want to sign him long term this offseason. Kemp's agent, Dave Stewart stated yesterday that he has had productive talks with Dodgers GM Ned Colletti and is optimistic that Kemp will sign an extension with the Dodgers this offseason. Whew!!
ESPN's Jerry Crasnick polled 28 front office executives and asked who would provide more value over the life of their contract: Prince Fielder or Albert Pujols. Fielder received 20 of the 28 votes. Here is an excerpt from Crasnick's piece:
The age gap between the two stars swayed most respondents toward Fielder. Pujols, who turns 32 in January, is four years and four months older than Fielder. Although Pujols steadfastly maintains that there are no surprises on his birth certificate, he's had to deal with questions about his age since he took St. Louis and baseball by storm a decade ago. Several respondents raised the issue without prompting in the ESPN.com survey.
Keith Law stated the same in a recent chat. You know the saying "where there's smoke, there is fire."
More from Crasnick on a who would you rather have question:
7. Which young pitching phenom would you rather have: Yu Darvish, Stephen Strasburg or Matt Moore?
Responses: Moore 13, Strasburg 12. The other three respondents called it a coin flip between Moore and Strasburg.
I think I mentioned something similar after Moore's outstanding playoff performance this season.
It was reported last evening that Nationals catcher Wilson Ramos was kidnapped from his home in Venezuela by 4 gunmen. Not much else is known at this time, but to follow this story, head on over to Federal Baseball, SB Naton's Nationals site.
One more thing, the Reds have shut down Aroldis Chapman from pitching in the Arizona Fall League with shoulder soreness. I have my doubts that he can handle the rigors of starting, and wonder if the Reds should just make him their closer in spring training.
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Call it
the shiny new toy syndrome. Strasburg not only has already come back from TJS in an accelerated timeframe, but he made 5 starts last year with no letodwn in performance, and actually, he came back better than he was before, showing no ill effects in his command or control, which is usually the last thing to return post-TJS. Moore on the other hand is a helluva consolation prize, but has pitched a total of 9 major league innings, and even though he has tasted success, I would always err on the side of the pitcher with a longer track record…and better pure stuff.
Moore
is more than a shiny new toy. Didn’t he shut out the Rangers in their home ballpark in the playoffs. A case can be made that Moore was left in the minors too long, as he dominated at every level.
Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Nov 10, 2011 7:56 AM EST up reply actions
Really?
Yes, he did dominate at every level of the minors. The comment shiny new toy syndrome stems from your comparison between the two, and fanboys of rookie players versus a 2nd year player. And Strasburg still, still, undeniably, has bette stuff, and elite command.
So, in a vacuum, Starsburg is the better pitcher, and dare I say, every major league executive, sans Friedman, would probabyl say Strasburg in a 1-1 duel with Moore.
but
13 executives said they preferred Moore to Strasburg, so not EVERY major league exec would say Strasburg over Moore.
Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Nov 10, 2011 8:17 AM EST up reply actions
and also
your disciple, Keith Law, has stated almost xinfinity, that small sample sizes are of virtually no consequence….and you are comparig Moore and Strasburg based on 1 playoff start?
Says the man
Who is sure Strasburg is pitching even better than before based on 5 starts, most of which were under pretty severe pitch counts.
true
he was on a pitch count and will be limited as to innings pitched in 2012.
Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Nov 10, 2011 8:23 AM EST up reply actions
it was quite the performance
but you make a good point. But, i also said that he was left in the minors too long. It’s not like he came out of nowhere to throw 7 innings of shutout ball.
So, to your point, Strasburg’s 5 starts this season are also a small sample size, no?
Ray Guilfoyle
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www.mlbdailydish.com
by Ray Guilfoyle on Nov 10, 2011 8:21 AM EST up reply actions
His 5 starts in a vacuum
are a small sample. So funnily enough, in your chat yesterday, you mentioned you look at several key factors when deciding pitchers worth:
K/9
K/BB
FIP
GB%
Now, ordinarily, guys coming back from TJS have all sorts of command issues. Let’s look at Tim Hudson as a case-in-point, as he was a successul TJS survivor. In 2008, Hudson had to go under the knife, limiting him to 142 innings that year. At that point, he had posted a whip ratio of 1.162, which is in line with his career ratios. After coming back from TJS at the ASB in 2009, he made three starts and posted a 1.465 whip. Now, understanding at the same time that WHIP is far from a perfect statistic, we can look at that and say, ok, he struggled with locating his pitches in the majors, and it was reflected in the number of hits and walks he gave up.
Here is where my argument comes in on Strasburg:
Pre-TJS, he posted a WHIP of 1.078 in 2009
When he came back in 2011, not only did he dramatically decrease his walk rate, but he lowered his whip ratio as well to an astounding .71
Given that WHIp is not an exact stat, and 5 starts at the end of the year is a small sample, I still believe Starsburg’s recovery puts him on a much higher plane than a Matt Moore who has had no medical ailments at this point in his career. Just one thing crosses my mind though, is the fact that Moore hasn’t had any medical issues yet, so is this a case of waiting for the other shoe to drop?
Moore's mechanics
are most often referred to as “clean” and “repeatable,” so I don’t expect medical issues related to mechanics. Strasburg’s “M” or “inverted W” or whatever was noticed by many people early in his career, and his TJS was no surprise.
Baseball Nation's Grant Brisbee
gives you his take on the Strasburg-Moore debate:
http://mlb.sbnation.com/2011/11/10/2550565/matt-moore-stephen-strasburg-rays-nationals
Ray Guilfoyle
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Kemp staying in LA? Ray, this air five is yours.
KEMvP
"You know Joe, if Keith Jardines last name was Johnson, the nickname 'The Dean of Mean' wouldn't work at all."
by T.C. Engel on Nov 10, 2011 12:22 PM EST via iPhone app reply actions
oh yes
they can’t afford to let him walk. Although one can dream about what they could get back in return if they traded him.
But, he is one of the best players in the league, and they don’t have much besides him as far as offense goes, so I see LAD paying up.
“air five”? is that what he does after wins?
Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com
by Ray Guilfoyle on Nov 10, 2011 1:01 PM EST up reply actions
Strasburg is the better pitcher
And it’s not particularly close. However, Moore has pretty phenomenal mechanics and his delivery is basically effortless. Strasburg puts a ton of stress on that arm. I’d take Moore for 2012 no doubt, mostly because Strasburg will be on an innings cap where as Moore should be able to put in at least 180 innings. Long term, I can easily see Moore being the more valuable pitcher to his team, mostly because I can’t see Strasburg staying healthy with that arm action and over hand curve.

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