Fantasy Baseball 2012: Early First Base Rankings
by Ray Guilfoyle on Oct 31, 2011 9:30 AM EDT
in 2012 Fantasy Baseball Position Rankings
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Robert did an excellent job with the catcher rankings last week, and today I will provide my early first base rankings for 2012. My ranking of Albert Pujols is probably going to be quite different than others on the internet, and I will have a separate article detailing my reasons for dropping him in 2012.
Royals first baseman Eric Hosmer impressed me enough in 2011 to rank him at #7 for 2012. I think he could easily move up in these rankings, but that may take a few years, as he could show more power as he gains more experience. The Ryan Howard ranking is low, and it assumes he will be out for more than just April 2012, so he could move up if he is healthy as we approach draft day 2012.
Now here is my early 2012 First Base Rankings:
1. Miguel Cabrera, DET
2. Adrian Gonzalez, BOS
3. Albert Pujols, STL
4. Joey Votto, CIN
5. Prince Fielder, ?
6. Mark Teixeira, NYY
7. Eric Hosmer, KC
8. Paul Konerko, CHW
9. Carlos Santana, CLE
10. Mike Napoli, TEX
11. Mark Reynolds, BAL
12. Michael Young, TEX
13. Michael Morse, WAS
14. Ryan Howard, PHI
15. Freddie Freeman, ATL
16. Adam Lind, TOR
17. Ike Davis, NYM
18. Lance Berkman, HOU
19. Michael Cuddyer, ?
20. Gaby Sanchez, MIA
Just missed: Mark Trumbo, LAA, Carlos Lee, HOU, Carlos Pena, ?, Paul Goldschmidt, ARI
A couple other guys to keep tabs on this offseason are Justin Morneau and Kendrys Morales.
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Don’t really see why Albert is ranked lower than Cabrera/A-Gon to be honest. You would be hoping for more HR than you got from either Cabrera or A-Gon. Actually, Cabrera regularly seems to top out at around 30HR, and A-Gon had a ridiculously high BABIP last year (.380). Pujols’ BABIP was .277.
Further down, I think I like Ike Davis more than a lot of those above him, especially if they do bring in the fences. Also like Pena if you can deal with the average, or in OBP leagues.
Hosmer at 7 is high, although there is a huge drop-off after the top 5 or 6. I think Howard should be further down really – there’s a fair chance he could hardly play next year. 1B actually gets thin quite quickly once you take out the multi-position guys that won’t be used at first (Santana, Napoli, Young, Reynolds, Cuddyer, and possibly Morse and Berkman too).
So many conflicting reports on Howard
I’ve read some injury experts say that April is entirely possible. On the other hand, many are saying most of 2012 is gone. I think it’s a good idea to at least keep him on the radar until we know more.
by Robert L. Bishop on Oct 31, 2011 10:15 AM EDT up reply actions
Davis
I do like him as well, and want to see if he is healthy come spring training….the Mets haven’t always given us the full info on injuries.
Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Oct 31, 2011 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions
Howard
Would he slot in at 7 if health wasn’t an issue?
No
I would probably rank him around 8 or 9 if he was fully healthy. His power has dropped off the lsat few years.
Hosmer hits for a better BA and steals double digit bags….
Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Oct 31, 2011 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm looking forward to reading what you've got on Pujols.
I think I like Morse better than you do.
by Robert L. Bishop on Oct 31, 2011 10:12 AM EDT reply actions
Pujols
I started it last night…..hope to finish tonight or Tues night….will publish on Wed AM.
Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Oct 31, 2011 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions
Pujols
it may reduce your excitement for the Rangers signing him….but the thought that he could DH to “rest” him would be very beneficial in the long run, I imagine.
Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Oct 31, 2011 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Morse
I really could see him doing well next year, but I hesitate to do so right now….I could move him up a few spots in teh final rankings. He was definitely a surprise this season, and wonder if he can duplicate his breakout season, ala Bautista this season.
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Oct 31, 2011 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Why the Morse love?
.344 BABIP for a guy who didn’t hit a ton of line drives and had one of the worst speed scores in the league. There could be a huge drop off in average next season. Is a .250 average, 30 home runs and 80 runs/80 RBI’s all that valuable at first base?
by dudedudedude on Oct 31, 2011 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions
the power
is, and .250 is not that far off league average. Power and runs scored was down in 2011, so 30 HRs is valuable. Only 23 hitters hit 30 or more HRs in 2011.
Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Oct 31, 2011 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions
It's more about being able to find those numbers later in the draft.
I may be wrong, but I don’t think people are chomping at the bit to draft him. Anyway, depending on what Ray writes about tomorrow, I may look a little closer at him in a separate piece.
by Robert L. Bishop on Oct 31, 2011 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions
please do
he is a hitter who will have plenty of bulls and bears this offseason.
Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Oct 31, 2011 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions
So many good first basemen its redicoulous.
Ryan Howard 14th and thats a godo spot , just shows you how many good ones there really are. Think this was a pretty good list, think Votto will have a great season next year but im still not sure if he will be number 1. Going to be interesting to see where Fielder goes, as a toronto fan ive heard rumours of us making offers to him or at least being interesting. I can imagine our offense with him and i love it, although if we get him Adam lind will probably go.
I hope we don't sign him
He will be insanely overvalued in the long run. Wouldn’t mind getting him on a 3 year deal, but I know that won’t be happening since someone is bound to give him a long term deal.
by dudedudedude on Oct 31, 2011 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions
even with all the Ks?
he strikes out plenty. But he does have some nice power.
Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Oct 31, 2011 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions
As well as some speed
He is a good version of Mike Morse in my eyes. Yes, he strikeouts a lot, but he also has a good history of taking walk. His power is unquestioned of course.
by dudedudedude on Oct 31, 2011 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions
goldschmidt
Won’t hit .300 though
Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Oct 31, 2011 4:52 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
morse
Already did tho and hit a lot of line drives this year
not sure he can repeat tho
Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Oct 31, 2011 5:07 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
He hit lines drives at a league average rate
Morse: 19.5%
League Average: 19.6%
Speed was way below league average. There’s a .49 point gap in BABIP between Morse and the league. There is no reason to believe he can sustain that BABIP, and should it fall below league average, it should come as no shock to anyone.
by dudedudedude on Oct 31, 2011 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions
well
many power hitters who strike out alot -Kemp comes to mind-consistently hit for a high BABIP. We don’t have enough data on Morse to conclude he can or can’t sustain the high BABIP.
Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Oct 31, 2011 7:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Not a big Goldschmidt fan
Reminds me of Jack Cust, but with less walks.
- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …
by Jeff Zimmerman on Nov 1, 2011 1:02 AM EDT up reply actions
Totally different players
Kemp has above average speed, while Morse is one of the slower players out there. Kemp also hits more line drives and ground balls.
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