Fantasy Baseball 2012 Early Position Rankings: Catcher

by Robert L. Bishop on Oct 24, 2011 12:01 PM EDT in 2012 Fantasy Baseball Position Rankings

CLEVELAND, OH - SEPTEMBER 23: Carlos Santana #41 of the Cleveland Indians hits a solo, walk-off home run to defeat the Minnesota Twins 6-5 at Progressive Field on September 23, 2011 in Cleveland, Ohio. The Indians defeated the Twins 6-5. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images)

Starting today, Ray, Jason, and I will be releasing our early fantasy baseball ranks for 2012. We will release an initial list for each position, then return the following day with brief profiles of each player ranked. You can see a rough schedule here.

It's important to note that these are preliminary lists. If our lists are the same on March 1 as they are today, we aren't doing our job. Our opinions will change based on analysis we do, arguments you make, and real-world developments that obviously can't be foreseen at this point in time.

That said, let's jump into the catcher ranks. The position was very deep last year, and it will continue to be so, though in my mind there's a pretty sharp decline right around the #10 spot. I'll be back tomorrow with some deeper thoughts on the catcher landscape. Until then, I await your criticism and comments on the initial list (praise is welcome, too!).

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well done

I couldn’t disagree with any of the rankiings except maybe Napoli could be higher, but I like the guys ahead of him as well. Nice job.

oh….and I LOVE the Mauer ranking….that’s about where I would have ranked him.

Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Oct 24, 2011 12:09 PM EDT reply actions

Thanks, Ray.

I ranked Napoli low because of opportunity. I don’t see his playing time increasing much, if at all, next year. I’ve written a more detailed explanation in his capsule that will be published tomorrow.

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by Robert L. Bishop on Oct 24, 2011 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions

Napoli

I don’t pretend to be an expert on most subjects, and I’m certainly not here. However, I have trouble understanding what logic you would use to suggest Napoli will not get increasing playing time. To me, he’s one guy who is almost guaranteed to increase his playing time, injuries aside. If you look at 2011, in the first 66 games (prior to injury, not a random cutoff point) he started only 39. In the last 75 after he worked with the Rangers’ new hitting coach, he started 63. He only missed 3 games in August and September. His trend is certainly toward more playing time based on what I’ve seen first hand.

by RobertC on Oct 24, 2011 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Well, those are good points.

However, 3 games missed in 2 months spread out over a full season equals 153 games played. While that’s not out of the realm of possibility for a catcher, it’s certainly highly improbable. In other words, even in a perfect situation for Naps, he’s not going to be used like he was in September and October. Any incremental playing time gains you can expect from his injury period will be mitigated by not being used at the same pace afterward.

Also, recall that Napoli received a lot of playing time in 2010 by playing first base (35 games). Don’t be surprised if the Rangers go after a first baseman this winter, and even if they don’t, every single one of their infielders is coming back. That means that Ron Washington will have to continue to find ways to get Michael Young at bats while using the DH role to give “half days,” as he calls them, to oft-injured stars Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz. In other words, he’s still somewhat blocked. The only way up for him is to play more behind the plate, and while he has been praised for improving his defense this season, I believe the Rangers would be uncomfortable with him calling much more than 100 games. I really think his ceiling in terms of games played is 120, barring any major developments.

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by Robert L. Bishop on Oct 24, 2011 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions

I've heard this argument before

Only it was about how Michael Young was not going to get 500 ABs this year because there wasn’t a spot for him in the lineup. He ended up with almost 700.

Napoli was one of the key cogs in the lineup this year. He will play well over 120 games. I think 140 is more likely. Carlos Santana played 95 games at C and 155 overall.

But more importantly, he’s trending up. The Rangers didn’t realize what they had at the beginning of 2011 and once they did, he became an every day player. I think it is incorrect to suggest his playing time will not decrease since the perception of the player by the front office has obviously changed.

I do agree that the Rangers may target a 1B, however I don’t think it will dip into Napoli’s playing time as much as you do. It would be counterproductive to sign a big bat just to reduce Napoli’s playing time. I wouldn’t be suprised if they target a guy who can play 1B or a corner OF spot – like Moreland did in 2011 – taking ABs away from Murphy and Moreland.

by RobertC on Oct 24, 2011 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Well, I agree with you about Michael Young.

However, as a Rangers fan I know you know that Young gets a special exemption for his official status as Face of the Franchise. It’s also worth noting that Young got his at bats down the stretch when he spent significant time filling in for Adrian Beltre at third base. Of course there is no guarantee that there will be no such injuries in 2012, but that development opened up first base for Napoli where it otherwise would have been time promised to Young.

To your last point, I doubt that Jon Daniels would hesitate to pull the trigger on a productive first baseman in the name of finding PAs for Naps. The Moreland-Young-Napoli platoon has been a stopgap, nothing more.

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by Robert L. Bishop on Oct 24, 2011 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Special Exemptions

I know it sounds silly but Napoli is already to the point where he gets a special exemption. He’s that highly regarded in Arlington, and I think rightfully so considering the season he’s had.

I think the key to your “stopgap” argument is Moreland. You are right that this was a stopgap only, but mainly because Moreland won’t have nearly the role next year that he had in 2011. He was huge in the postseason last year, and he had his chance in 2011, but unfortunately he did not capitalize on it.

In a vacuum, I agree that Jon Daniels wouldn’t hesitate to pull the trigger on a productive first baseman. However, given limited resources (a limitation at some point for everyone outside of NY), I don’t know that this is a top priority to be honest.

by RobertC on Oct 24, 2011 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Napoli

Sorry to reply to myself but I now have even more data to support this. I sat in the lower OF tonight at game 5 and the NA-PO-LI chants were amazing. The Rangers are going to find a way to get him in the lineup every day.

I am confident that 140 games is the realistic number here.

by RobertC on Oct 25, 2011 12:36 AM EDT up reply actions

Glad you were at the game

I was at ALDS Game Two, where the Napoli chants started. He obviously had a very good game. I would continue to argue that he’s going to get plenty of days off.

Go Rangers.

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by Robert L. Bishop on Oct 25, 2011 1:05 AM EDT up reply actions

+1

I’d slot him in at #4, maybe even 2/3…

by PrincetonCubs on Oct 24, 2011 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Napoli

Could even be the #1 catcher in 2012. He only missed 3 games the last 2 months of the season — only Victor Martinez should be penciled in for more PAs than Napoli.

He has been amongst the top 20 in HR/PA every year for the past 4 years or so amongst players with more than 300 PAs.

Contract year in Arlington…

by YouthofToday on Oct 25, 2011 2:27 AM EDT up reply actions

I get what you're saying

I absolutely do not believe in players performing well in contract years. Please don’t point to one or two guys. Anecdotal evidence is not enough.

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by Robert L. Bishop on Oct 25, 2011 9:26 AM EDT up reply actions

Agree

Contract year arguments are silly at best.

by RobertC on Oct 25, 2011 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions

I think the two players who are the most interesting for next year are Posey (whether or not he can return to form) and actually Salvador Perez. Perez hit well during his callup and could be an interesting sleeper.

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by Jason Hunt on Oct 24, 2011 12:58 PM EDT reply actions

Sal Perez will be over valued on draft day

2011 LD% = 29%

They were are LDs as I watched the games, but he won’t keep it.

Number of players with a 3-year LD% over 25%:
.
.
.

Huge regression in his future.

- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …

by Jeff Zimmerman on Oct 24, 2011 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions

There should be a disclaimer

Never be the guy to draft the catcher early. Only two catchers finished in the top 100 this season, and neither were the full time catchers (Napoli, Martinez), so while drafting a guy like Santana seems awfully appealing in the 6th round, he won’t be worth it in the end. The gap between the best catcher and the 10th best catcher is not a big gap.

That being said, the rankings look pretty good. I’d probably bump Mauer up a bit. I understand his injury history but all catchers are a risk to drop at any point in time, just as Posey and Santana have in these past two seasons.

by dudedudedude on Oct 24, 2011 1:54 PM EDT reply actions

I agree but with a caveat

I think your exceptions were key. Guys that are not full time catchers may not fit the rule to “never” be the guy to draft a catcher early. If you can get 1B production out of your C, you have a huge advantage. And those two project to do so.

by RobertC on Oct 24, 2011 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions

Santana dropped?

I think he jumped up.
Re: Mauer, Target Field appears to be a pitchers park, and with his injuries, I don’t see his power returning. BA is fine, but his SLG was very low this year, IIRC.

But, I agree that all catchers are a risk…..

Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Oct 24, 2011 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions

I think he might be referring to Santana's 2010 injury.

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by Robert L. Bishop on Oct 24, 2011 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions

ahhhh

that makes sense…..my bad

Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Oct 24, 2011 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions

Good point - Santana and Posey are two good examples

Plus add in Mauer’s injury history.

I bet someone has done some in depth analysis on catcher health. I wonder exactly how much more injury prone they are. It almost seems like we could do a straight deduction of value based on increased injury risk due to being a catcher, if it exists.

by RobertC on Oct 24, 2011 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions

Regarding Mauer

Power is one category, in standard leagues anyways. So while his home run totals might be below 10, everything else is still extremely solid for a catcher. I’d take 10 homers, a .300 average and 80 RBI’s and Runs and be happy. I’d be hard pressed to predict anything close to that for other catchers.

by dudedudedude on Oct 24, 2011 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions

Mauer

He also missed ~50 games this year which I think was the reason you suggested avoiding catchers, right?

If you are bumping Santana and Posey down, you certainly bump Mauer down.

Also in keeper/dynasty leagues there has to be some concession that he may not retain C status.

by RobertC on Oct 24, 2011 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions

Mauer has already been bumped down

A bump down for him is to the 3 or 4 spot, he is the number 1 catcher assuming he stays healthy.

by dudedudedude on Oct 24, 2011 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions

mauer

he won’t hit 10 HRs in that park….and with Morneau still suffering from the conscussion, along with other ailments, and Cuddyer and Kubel possibly leaving, that lineup will be ugly.

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by Ray Guilfoyle on Oct 24, 2011 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions

He's a 6'5'', 230 pound line drive hitter

There isn’t really an accurate way to say what he will and won’t do. An increase in HR/FB rate and he could hit 20, and I wouldn’t be surprised. Mall of America field where he hit 28 home runs in a season put up worse HR park effects than Target field which they are using now, so can’t isn’t a word I’m willing to use.

by dudedudedude on Oct 24, 2011 6:51 PM EDT up reply actions

agree with the dude

mauer will likely be undervalued in 2012.

by DB11 on Oct 24, 2011 7:41 PM EDT up reply actions

Mauer

how do you explain the drop in SLG? He became a singles hitter this year.

I won’t be bidding on him.

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by Ray Guilfoyle on Oct 24, 2011 8:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Shit happens

His BABIP was way below his career numbers and he played hurt for the 99% of his at bats. He was the number 1 catcher for who knows how many seasons and we are really going to drop him down because of one season where he didn’t put up god like numbers? Call me crazy, but Mauer is still the most talented catcher in baseball.

by dudedudedude on Oct 24, 2011 9:01 PM EDT up reply actions

not a fan

way below?? it was not much lower than his career BABIP of .342…..even if he hits .300, how many runs and RBI will he have in that lineup? other than his outlier 28 HR season, he’s hit more than 10 HRs once in his career…and that was when he was healthy.

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by Ray Guilfoyle on Oct 24, 2011 9:09 PM EDT up reply actions

ISO numbers don't stabilize in half a season

You have to remember what Joe Mauer has done for the past 10 seasons, and not just this previous one here. You can blame it on the park but he did alright the season before in the first year that the park opened. In 2010, he finished as the number 1 catcher, in 2009, he finished as the number 1 catcher, in 2008 he finished as the number 1 catcher.

You don’t seem to hate on the Buster Posey ranking much when his slugging percentage took a nose dive this season. Your Mauer hate just isn’t backed by solid arguments.

by dudedudedude on Oct 24, 2011 9:27 PM EDT up reply actions

huh?

I have questioned his power drop…..Posey’s SLG did nose dive…I agree. I guess I just have more confidence in Posey hitting for power than Mauer.
I think I stated a fact when I mentioned that Mauer’s 28 HR season was an outlier at this point, and he has hit more than 10 HRs just one other time. How is that not solid?
You can have Mauer. I will take Santana and his 30-90 potential. Mauer won;t be the #1 catcher in 2012, imo. I don’t see it.
I can’t wait to post my first base rankings next week.

We need more of this type of discussion here at FT.

Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Oct 24, 2011 9:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Why do you have more confidence in Posey?

It makes no sense. You complain about Target Field, but you make no reference to the fact that Posey plays in AT&T park which is worse than Target Field for power. Posey is also coming off an injury. Mauer is in his prime. There isn’t any rhyme or reason to just drop Mauer while not dropping others for the same reasons.

by dudedudedude on Oct 24, 2011 10:10 PM EDT up reply actions

just a matter of opinion

been wrong before….both could bounce back strong. I just see all the years of <10 HRs from Mauer and I am not a fan. Posey has less major league experience, so his 2010 could be a fluke, maybe not.

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by Ray Guilfoyle on Oct 24, 2011 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions

Nice peice, very well done.

I really like Santana the Dodgers must be pissed, hows Casey Blake doing LA?
Look at that Mauer number 9 who woulda though, thats what injuries can do i guess.

Two guys i think should be a bit higher are Posey and Arenibia, J.P has proven he is a decent defensive catcher who can throw out runners, his average is bad but any catcher that can hit you 25+ dingers is Valuable.

by Jt Malley on Oct 24, 2011 4:55 PM EDT reply actions

Arencibia

You’re right, he will be valuable. I think his average will regress and the power seems to be real. Who do you place him over, though? I can see putting him in front of Molina if you’re looking for power, but Yadier offers some certainty, while you need to have a better season from JPA for him to reach that level of value.

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by Robert L. Bishop on Oct 24, 2011 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Id put him ahead of Molina and Montero.

Molina does have his good things though, great defensivly. And montero hasnt proven anything to me yet so that would be why.

by Jt Malley on Oct 24, 2011 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Blake

went to 2 NLCS with LAD…..and they had Martin at the time of the deal, who they thought was their catcher of the future….

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by Ray Guilfoyle on Oct 24, 2011 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions

yea your right but who is there young up and comming guy now.

Besides Kershaw they have no one, Blakes done now and he didnt exacle tear it up in the playoffs, Blake i mean.

by Jt Malley on Oct 24, 2011 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions

no one? they have plenty

Rubby de la Rosa
Nate Eovaldi
Allen Webster
Zach Lee
Jerry Sands
Alfredo Silverio-had 79 XBH in AA
Kenley Jansen-major league record of 16k/9 this season
Shawn Tolleson

I will wager that 4-5 of these guys will be in several Top 100 lists.

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by Ray Guilfoyle on Oct 24, 2011 7:24 PM EDT up reply actions

I'll take the under

by dudedudedude on Oct 25, 2011 2:17 AM EDT up reply actions

yeah

Eovaldi and RDLR probably threw too many innings to be eligible….my bad on the estimate.
I can see Lee, Webster and Silverio making it though….Silverio had 76 XBH in AA, not 79

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by Ray Guilfoyle on Oct 25, 2011 7:24 AM EDT up reply actions

Where would you rank Ryan Lavarnway?

Alex Bunbury = good. Teal Bunbury = a colour

by Lesean25 on Oct 24, 2011 4:55 PM EDT reply actions

Good question

Lavarnway is in a group of about 5 or so players that I considered but left off. I wouldn’t know where to rank him in that group without looking further. He definitely has upside in regards to power, but average is an issue, and playing time is going to be a problem. I will definitely reconsider him for the next iteration of ranks.

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by Robert L. Bishop on Oct 24, 2011 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions

I really don’t see the issue with his BA to be honest with you in the minors hes never hit lower then .268 barring his first season in rookie ball where there was only a small sample size. I don’t think he’ll hit upwards of .300 but I wouldn’t be scared to rate it at .275-.290 which is a pretty decent BA for a catcher.

And if Oritz does leave, he may split time at DH and C.
Will you be including him in your more detailed article ?

Alex Bunbury = good. Teal Bunbury = a colour

by Lesean25 on Oct 24, 2011 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions

I wasn't planning on it,

but since you asked, I will do a little more research and include him as “Just Missed.”

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by Robert L. Bishop on Oct 24, 2011 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions

Auction Values

I know it’s hard to do, but is there any way we could give tentative auction values to these guys?

For example, I have Santana at around $20, Wieters $15, and Arencibia $10.

by RobertC on Oct 24, 2011 5:04 PM EDT reply actions

I would be hesitant to do so until all of the position ranks are revealed.

I certainly understand the desire, but it’s very early, and values can’t be treated in a vacuum without considering other positions. For what it’s worth, those numbers look about right to me. Sorry I can’t offer more at this time.

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by Robert L. Bishop on Oct 24, 2011 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions

fair

I understand that.

by RobertC on Oct 25, 2011 12:34 AM EDT up reply actions

Jesus Montero

I’d be interested to see if he qualifies at catcher next season. Logic tells me he probably should, but if they base it solely on his time in the Majors, he won’t (3 games vs. 18 as DH only). Something to watch as sites start releasing their lists come at the start of the year.

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by Jason Hunt on Oct 24, 2011 6:57 PM EDT reply actions