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Fake Teams Hits the Fantasy Baseball Links

MILWAUKEE, WI - OCTOBER 16:  Lance Berkman #12 of the St. Louis Cardinals hits a RBI single in the top of the first inning against the Milwaukee Brewers  during Game Six of the National League Championship Series at Miller Park on October 16, 2011 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.  (Photo by Scott Boehm/Getty Images)

I've lumped in a bunch of World Series links in with today's fantasy stuff, for which I will not apologize.  World Series!

Can Lance Berkman Repeat His 2011 Season? | Roto Hardball

In short: if Berkman starts hot, whether due to BABIP luck or just solid performance, I expect pitchers to keep approaching him in a way that he's proven he can exploit. If he doesn't, they'll treat him like 2010 Berkman which, combined with his age, could be his downfall in 2012.

Big Veggie Trims His K Rate | Baseball Analytics

Fielder cut his two-strike miss percentage to 22 percent this past year. That helped make him one of the best two-strike hitters in the game. Prince batted .249/.347/.447 when he didn't have a strike to spare in 2011, compared to the pitcher-like .180/.247/.274 league average in such situations. While Fielder's price tag and girth could give teams pause, he's still in the prime years of his career and enters free agency with a highly impressive hitting dossier. With a 143 career OPS+, Prince ranks in the top 50 all-time among batters through their age-27 season. If he retains his two-strike contact boost, Fielder could be even more of a threat at the plate.

Ryan Roberts and Burden of Proof | FanGraphs Fantasy Baseball

While [Roberts] will strike out a decent number of times, his ability to draw a walk and command of the strike zone doesn’t lead me to believe that a lot of what we saw in 2011 flirts with a fluke.

Star-divide

R and RBI: Michael Young is Predictably Unpredictable | Roto Hardball
A good point here: Next spring, watch Michael Young to see where he's deployed in the lineup.

David Freese Just Saw His Draft Cost Jump | FanGraphs Fantasy Baseball

Freese probably wasn’t going to be valued too highly by fantasy leaguers in 2011. His postseason performance has now certainly gotten him noticed and his cost in drafts will likely rise as a result. However, he has real potential to contribute positively in the batting average category, while hitting near the 20-homer plateau. In a weak third base position, that is quite solid. Thus, I don’t think he will necessarily be overvalued, but your chances for making a nice profit have obviously decreased.

Buy or Sell: Rafael Furcal's 2012 Value | Roto Hardball

If [Furcal] could even play 125 games, his peripherals still suggest that he could approach double-digits in both HRs and SBs while maintaining an average between .280 and .290. Assuming he sticks in the leadoff spot, add 75-80 runs to the equation. That can be especially helpful in NL-only leagues, where the top shortstops after the first tier of Tulo, Reyes and Hanley are Jimmy Rollins, Stephen Drew and an endless supply of question marks.

Prospect Report: Could Ryan Lavarnway Provide Value In 2012? | Rotoprofessor

Exactly how we value Lavarnway will depend on how the Red Sox offseason unfolds. However, the one thing that we know is that he should be on all fantasy radars for 2012. We’ll revisit him again as the start of the season nears, but make sure you keep his name in mind.

Taylor Green: Milwaukee's Solution at Third Base? | Roto Hardball

The only two-time winner of Milwaukee's Minor League Player of the Year award, the 5'10" Green doesn't have anything more to prove on the farm. He's not particularly impressive physically but has decent pop in his bat from the left side, good knowledge of the strike zone, and is a "hard worker" with "amazing heart" who was compared by Zduriencik to legendary Los Angeles Dodgers firebrand Ron Cey.

2011 End of Season Player Rankings | FanGraphs Fantasy Baseball
A valuable resource as you get ready for 2012.

Projected 2012 Fantasy Baseball Top 15 | RotoRob
Are we comfortable with Matt Kemp at #1?

Preliminary 2012 Rankings: Top 20 Starting Pitchers | Rotoprofessor

2011 Positional Review – Second Base | Baseball Guys
Looking forward, who do you like better: Cano or Pedroia? (or Kinsler?) My answer: Cano, hands down.

Top 20 3rd Basemen, 2011 Fantasy Baseball | Razzball

2011 Positional Review – Third Base | Baseball Guys
This position is so terrible, guys. Good thing Jose Bautista is eligible there next season.

Top 20 Shortstops, 2011 Fantasy Baseball | Razzball

2012 NL Starting Pitching Keeper Rankings: Tier One | FanGraphs Fantasy Baseball
Fangraphs posted the first tier of their keeper rankings for every single position yesterday. I'm not going to link to every one (that would take up too much space). This is the most recent one. Click on it, then look for "Recent Stories" on the right to find the others.

AL: Beyond the Elite First Basemen | Roto Hardball
American League first basemen thin out quickly and the next tier options have warts large enough that sticking with elite might be your only option for success.

Shelby Miller, Cardinal Of The Future | Roto Hardball

There's no rush for you to go out and draft him in your standard league formats, and in dynasty and long-term keeper leagues, Miller is already off the board. But for those of you who focus more on who is in the majors now, keep Miller in mind as someone who might be there sooner than later.

Under-the-radar prospects in the AFL | Roto Hardball

WORLD SERIES LINKS

World Series Prospectus: The Midwest Showdown | Baseball Prospectus
Hands down the best preview of the World Series out there...and it's free!

The History of the World Series Baseball Program | NYTimes.com
Love it.

Saturday Night Live World Series Sketches | NBC.com
Classic baseball sketches to honor the World Series. "GET ON THE BAG!"

And your 2011 World Series Winner is… | Seamheads.com
Using the Bill James Prediction System.

The 2011 World Series: History vs. History Of Disappointment | Baseball Nation

Let’s Go, Rangers | Mike Scioscia's tragic illness
Must read sections: Joe Buck & Tim McCarver and Michael Young.

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Kemp at 1

I am…..he won’t repeat his 2011 in ’12, but he could go 30-30 again.

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Oct 19, 2011 12:11 PM EDT reply actions  

What about Braun?

I don’t have a fully formed opinion on this yet, so I’m really asking. Braun seems like a surer bet to me.

by Robert L. Bishop on Oct 19, 2011 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Kemp

had one bad year that was flukish in that his BABIP was well below his career average. Kemp hits for more power and steals more bases. 2011 was the first year Braun had more than 20 SBs, let alone 30 SBs.
Braun is more consistent with the BA.

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Oct 19, 2011 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

Has to be Jose at 1

3B and OF eligibility as well as consistent power and won’t hurt you anywhere. With Lawrie hitting in front of him next season, he could see a few more RBI’s and fastballs with someone as quick as Lawrie on the basepaths.

by dudedudedude on Oct 19, 2011 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

Jose??

Kemp > Jose….similar power, more RBI, SBs, better BA….

Lawrie is moving up to 3rd?

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Oct 19, 2011 8:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

Jose hits 3rd

But Lawrie has to move up to 2nd. Farrell isn’t that dumb, I don’t think. Similar power? Last year maybe, and Jose still had a half dozen more home runs, but I’m not buying into that huge power upgrade for Kemp. Can he hit 30? Absolutely, but Jose is basically a lock for 40. Consistent power at a weak offensive position? Yes please.

You seem to be assuming that this past season is what will happen next season, which isn’t the best idea. Better BA? Kemp had a pretty high BABIP this season, even for him. RBI’s aren’t really a predictive stat, and it’s more of an indication of who will be hitting in front of you, but I’d be pretty confident in Lawrie and Escobar getting on base more often than Rajai Davis and Aaron Hill to begin last season.

In the end, it really comes down to position. I’ll take the 3B over the OF 11 times out of 10.

by dudedudedude on Oct 19, 2011 9:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

me

I’ll take the 30-30 guy 100 times out of 10!!! lol…..seriously though.

Kemp has always been a high BABIP guy, 2010 was a fluke year…blame it on RIRI.
Who did Kemp have hitting in front of him? Jamey Carroll, Tony Gwynn and Ethier in a down year.

Kemp has impressive power and this could be just the start. He is a totally different hitter than when he came up. I have watched him mature as a hitter over the years.

I don’t think Kemp will duplicate his 2011 season, but he can go 30-30 again.
Bautista slumped in the second half no?

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Oct 19, 2011 9:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

A .380 BABIP though?

No one is a true talent .380 BABIP hitter, so while he can have a high one, not nearly that high. Having poor players hitting in front of you doesn’t matter, just as long as they are on base when you get hits, and over time, it balances out.

He might be a different hitter, but he also had a huge jump in HR/FB rate. Something to be wary of when considering his power. Yes, the SB’s are nice, but SB’s come cheap, especially in the OF.

by dudedudedude on Oct 19, 2011 9:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

agreed

.380 BABIP is not repeatable, imo….but he can BABIP .350 and hit .290 and go 30-100-30.

not many 30-30 guys running around….Braun, Kinsler and Kemp.

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Oct 19, 2011 9:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

How many players can...

Hit 45 homers, steal double digit bases, hit .300, and get on base while playing both 3B and OF? If you want to talk scarcity of talent, Jose has everyone beat.

by dudedudedude on Oct 19, 2011 9:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

I am not

a position scarcity believer…..third base will rebound in 2012….not taking anything from Bautista, just like Kemp better.

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Oct 19, 2011 9:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

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