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Project Prospect's Early Look at Top 25 Low A Prospects

PHOENIX, AZ - JULY 10:  World Future's All-Star Jurickson Profar #10 of the Texas Rangers triples in the sixth inning during the 2011 XM All-Star Futures Game at Chase Field on July 10, 2011 in Phoenix, Arizona.  (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

Adam Foster posted his Top 25 Low A Prospects last week and he notes the following regarding the list::

Methodology: Only players who were a deviation below level-average age were considered for the list above. The average Low-A age in 2011 was approximately 22, with a standard deviation of approximately 2. Players were ranked based simply on deviations from level-average age, strikeout percentage, walk percentage and isolated power. The position that the player primarily played for the final two months of the season was also factored into the rankings.

Here are his Top 5 Low A prospects:

1. Jurickson Profar, TEX

2. Bryce Harper, WAS

3. Xander Bogaerts, BOS

4, Ronald Torreyes, CIN

5. Cheslor Cuthbert, KC

Cuthbert hit .267-.345-.397 with 8 HRs, 51 RBI and a solid 65-36 K/BB rate as an 18 year old in Low A. If Moustakas doesn't pan out, or is traded, the Royals have Cuthbert who will be ready in 3-4 years. 

More from Project Prospect after the jump:

Star-divide

Adam also posted his Top 10 AA Position Prospects with a similar disclaimer as for the Top 25 Low A Prospects list. Here are his Top 5 AA position prospects:

1.  Mike Trout, LAA

2.  Derek Norris, WAS

3. Wil Myers, KC

4. Salvador Perez, KC

5. Tyler Pastornicky, ATL

What caught my attention with the AA list was that Adam ranked Norris ahead of Toronto catching prospect Travis d'Arnaud. Here is what he noted about Norris:

Power hitter will K & BB a lot; he's a good bet to stick at catcher

Norris hit just .210-.367-.446 with 20 HRs, 46 RBI, 17 doubles, 13 stolen bases in 14 attempts, and an excellent 117-77 K/BB rate in 334 at bats at AA Harrisburg in 2011. I imagine he will move up to AAA this season, and could serve as Wilson Ramos' backup in 2013.

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Norris surprised me

The thing with Norris that really surprised me was that if Bryce Harper had qualified for the AA rankings, Harper would have been right behind Norris. Not entirely sure what to make of that, and clearly Norris is not the better prospect. But it says something about their thinking on Norris to say that.

by Jason Hunt on Oct 19, 2011 2:55 PM EDT reply actions  

I think it’s important to point out the full disclaimer he gave (emphasis mine):

Warning: These rankings were created without utilizing scouting information. The list was assembled as a conversation starter/watch list by way of a relatively simple, objective prospect finding system. After weighing in scouting information, our rankings of players will change.

As a Nats fan, it’s nice to see Norris rated high, but he’s got a long way to go to get to the bigs.

by what Juneau about that? on Oct 19, 2011 4:00 PM EDT reply actions  

thanks

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Oct 19, 2011 6:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

Klaw tweet

keithlaw keithlaw
Fine. Yes. RT @morrsco: @keithlaw How has Norris’ receiving looked? Can he catch in the majors?

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Oct 19, 2011 7:55 PM EDT reply actions  

Thanks

First off, thanks for the link, as always, Ray.

Secondly, thanks to the posters here for reading and understanding the disclaimer.

My time to do prospect research has been limited this year, and the method I’ve come up with here has allowed me to play catchup and target guys to learn more about. I’ve already been contacted by one scout who said the Low-A list contained a bunch of his sleepers. Others have said that for a non-scouting list, it’s a good conversation starter.

I’m happy to reveal additional information about the methodology or answer any prospect questions.

- Adam

AdamWFoster on Twitter
Projectprospect.com Founder

by Adam Foster on Oct 20, 2011 2:02 PM EDT reply actions  

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