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Thoughts on Johnny Cueto for 2011?

Despite only being 24 years old, it seems like Johnny Cueto has been around forever. I can still remember his debut in 2008 when he put up 7 IP of one hit ball (1 ER) with 10 Ks and no BBs. Having watched baseball for over 20 years, Cueto's debut ranks right up there as one of the best I've ever seen. Unfortunately, that debut set the expectations and hype to unprecedented levels to which it was almost impossible for Cueto to fulfill.

Fast forward to 2010, it appears that Johnny Cueto has been an underachiever. However, if you look closely at the numbers, he's making improvements. For the third year in a row, Cueto has lowered his BB and HR rate, and increased his GB rate. Furthermore, he has also been increasing his strand rate of base runners. Some may argue that is fluky, but it's quite possible that Cueto is learning to pitch better under high stress situations, rather than unraveling. The slight concern is that his K rate is also dropping, but his stuff (93+ mph FB, mid 80s slider) is still as good as it was when he debuted with a 8.17 K/9 in 2008. Has he made the decision to pitch to contact in order to go deeper into games? It would partially explain his IP per start increase to a career high in 2010. With his excellent fastball/slider combination, I do expect the K rate to increase soon. He's had to do a lot of his 'learning' at the MLB level. I think its just a matter of time before he begins to utilize his arsenal to its potential.

In his 3rd year in the Majors, Johnny Cueto put up his best season in terms of Wins (12), IP (185.2), ERA (3.64), and WHIP (1.28). I guess you can call this a 'breakout' season. It wasn't sexy by any means, but it does show promise that the young kid is getting better and making improvements in his game. These are the qualities you want to see in a young arm. I still think he might be a year or two away from a 'wow' season, but he's definitely headed in the right direction. In my opinion, Johnny Cueto will no doubt out perform his ADP.

My projection for Johnny Cueto in 2011:

200 IP, 16 W, 3.55 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 160 K

What are your thoughts on Johnny Cueto for 2011?

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