Say Do You Remember Dancing In September: Late Season Call-ups Who Could Make Fantasy Impact in 2011
Just like Earth Wind and Fire reminisce about a love found in September it's always a good idea to look back to the fall before and see if you can dig up that hidden gem that takes you to fantasy supremacy and all the glory, cash and Vegas showgirls that comes with it. (I'm still holding out belief that such a league with these winnings exists.) Late season call-ups who experience immediate success can be a tricky lot to forecast. Carlos Gonzalez, Dan Hudson, Wade Davis, and Julio Borbon, among others had strong late season debuts in 2009 with differing degrees of success in 2010. The past season brought a new crop of call-ups and we saw the likes of Jeremy Hellickson, Craig Kimbrel, Logan Morrison and Lorenzo Cain emerge as small sample success stories. What can we learn from 2009's men of September and is there another Car-Go waiting to explode?
more after the jump...
First let's start by taking a look at how some of the 2009 group fared.
Wade Davis - Davis shined in his 2009 debut and followed up with a strong start to 2010 until a disastrous start in Texas put a dent in his ERA that took him all season to climb out of. If he shows the ability to go deeper into games he could be a good candidate for improvement in 2011. He has strikeout upside and a strong enough team to provide him wins in a tough division. He should do a nice job filling the shoes left by Matt Garza and won't be sought after til much later in the draft than Garza.
Julio Borbon - Playing time could be an issue for Borbon but the young speedster could put up some nice statistics if given a chance to play. The former first round pick has hit above .300 every season up until last year when he posted .276. He got off to a horrendous start but after April he hit .292. Watch to see if Ron Washington gives him playing time and a green light. If he gets both he could turn into a very nice waiver pick-up providing a decent batting average, SB and R if he's hitting lead-off in place of Andrus.
Drew Stubbs - In 2009 stubbs got a 42 game look so he's not quite a september call-up but he could be the game's next break-out star. Never much of a slugger in the minors Stubbs hit 8 in his quarter season with the Reds in 2009 and cynics wrote it off as a fluke but he proved them wrong by following up with 22 in 2010. He struggles with contact and unless he gets that under control it could be his downfall. But you gotta love the power speed upside he brings and he has shown better contact skills in the past. not to mention improving as the season went on. In 2011 he will hit at the top of a potent Reds lineup that could also see strides made by Jay Bruce. Stubbs may not reach the coveted 30-30 plateau but he has a fair shot at 25-35. Just don't be shocked when there's an AVG in the .260s to go along with it. It's not quite Car-Go heights but he could be a nice find if he slips through the cracks a bit.
As for those who found success late in 2010 Jeremy Hellickson and Aroldis Chapman are at the forefront of people's minds, however, there are a few lesser known players who could live up to the promise shown at the end of the year and a few who could flame out
Lorenzo Cain - Julio Borbon's 2010 should act as warning for those looking to draft Cain in 2011. Cain shows better patience at the plate and similar speed but doesn't have the same consistency with batting average that Borbon does. The move to Kansas City likely helps his playing time situation along with a possible bump up the batting order. The Royals offense isn't going to turn him into a 100 R producer anytime soon so unless he's able to repeat that 2010 AVG he's unlikely to be a major factor next year. I'm still holding out hope for 2012 and beyond but 2011 should be very telling of what to expect for Cain.
James McDonald - McDonald is among 2010's crop of late season studs to emerge. He already had 69 innings mostly in relief heading into 2010 but it wasn't until a mid-season trade to the Pirates that he truly got to display his talents as a starter. He had 8.6 K/9 in 11 starts with the Pirates and is the closest thing the team has to an ace. McDonald struck out nearly 10 batters per game in the minors so there's reason to believe the K-rate above 8 is here to stay. Many will write him off in 2010 due to the weak Pirates lineup behind him but they could be better than you think. With Pedro Alvarez and Andrew McCutchen emerging the Bucs may not be as starved for runs as they once were and McDonald could have a win total in the teens. Let someone else take a chance on Brandon Webb or Chris Young when you most likely have McDonald still available.
Craig Kimbrel - There is technically a competition for the closers role in Atlanta but it is clearly Kibrel's to lose in Spring Training. Jonny Venters is Kimbrel's competition but the lefty will likely be kept out of the closer role so he can be used situationally. Kimbrel is a strikeout machine that likes walks as much as Grandma on a sunny summer day but Carlos Marmol showed last year that it's possible to be effective when wild if you don't give the hitters a chance to put the ball in play. Kimbrel could be a top 8 closer at the end of the year if he is able to keep those free passes from scoring. Chris Sale is another late season pitcher that could make an impact but the question surrounding him is whether he will end up in the rotation or bullpen. If given the closer role, Sale could be another solid find.
Logan Morrison - There are questions surrounding Morrison's power and whether or not it arrives will be the difference between a plus fantasy player or an on-base machine with little else to offer. He hit only 2 deep in the majors last year but drove the ball well with 20 doubles and showed a fantastic eye with 41 BB in only 244 AB. The Marlins youngster doesn't turn 24 until August so it's best to be patient with him. For the next couple years the HRs should inch up until he hits his physical peak when 30 HR could be in the realm of possibility. In 2011 it's best to expect moderate gain in most areas of his game.
Peter Bourjos - Bourjos has excellent speed and a bit of pop (6-12 HR) in his bat. He struggles to make contact so the batting average isn't likely to approach .300 yet and the lack of walks will keep his SB numbers lower than they could be. He should get playing time in Anaheim with their aging outfield but it may not be as often as someone like Cain in Kansas City who has little competition. Of the speedsters in this article Bourjos has the most upside due to the power potential and in a few years he could team with Mike Trout to make a fairly notable young outfield. He's a gamble heading into 2011 but not a terrible option in keeper leagues.
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Borbon, Stubbs, Kimbrel & McDonald
I will be targeting all four players myself. Stubbs is going the earliest, and it seems as if other drafters have written off Borbon after one poor season. Kimbrel is lights out if he can control his walks, and not too long ago, McDonals was a top prospect for LA Dodgers. Nice work.
agreed
McDonald could have just needed a change of scenery in Pitt….Kimbrel, if given the chance, could be a stud closer. If not, he could be a setup guy who provides 80-100 Ks in 2011.
I am rooting for Morrison…..he is a sleeper imo….
Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Jan 29, 2011 5:58 PM EST up reply actions
I have McDonald on my keeper team so I"ve had my eye on him for a while and that trade to the Pirates did wonders for him cause all he really needed was the chance to play. He should be a real bargain for whoever picks him up this year. He’s Pittsburgh’s ace and could get 180+ innings with over 8 K/9 and an ERA under 4. Kimbrel is a bit scary cause if the walks get out of control he’ll lose his job fast but there’s so much promise with him.
by Jeremy Miedzinski on Jan 30, 2011 2:14 AM EST reply actions
agreed
on both. I think Kimbrel will get the first shot at closing. He pitched well in September, didn’t walk many and struck out a ton.
Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Jan 30, 2011 10:58 AM EST up reply actions
McDonald is not a slam dunk IMO!
1. the guy gets behind hitters
2. walks hitters
3. Only throws 2 good pitches…he barely throws a changeup..
4. allows too many flyballs . He had an unrealistic hr/fb rate when he was in pitt
the guy IMO is not that good….he’ll be more of a headache than anything else
I agree he's not a slam dunk
but he does have a lot of potential in fantasy with the Ks alone. His GB% in the bigs last year was dreadful but he should do better next year based on his past. I was probably getting a bit too excited when I commented an era under 4 but something in the low 4s should be possible. He has a lot to fix but he looked fantastic when I watched him last year. Tons of red flags but plenty of upside to make some owners take the chance.
Jeremy Miedzinski
www.faketeams.com
mattinglyssideburns.blogspot.com
by Jeremy Miedzinski on Feb 10, 2011 12:40 PM EST up reply actions
McDonald over Johan?
I’m in a deep H2H keeper league with a somewhat older pitching staff. My SP are Cliff Lee, Dan Haren, Chris Carpenter, Roy Oswalt, Josh Beckett, Ryan Dempster, Matt Garza, Jordan Zimmermann, Jorge De La Rosa, Anibal Sanchez, Gavin Floyd, Bud Norris, Johan Santana and Shelby Miller. There is a 14 GS weekly limit, so we usually keep 13 SP at all times.
Would it be unreasonable to deal Johan for a draft pick and keep McDonald instead?
not a bad idea
Johan is going to miss significant time this year and even when he comes back there’s no guarantee he’ll be back to pitching the way he used to. Even before the injury he was showing signs of decline. If you get a deal you’re happy with I say go for it. McDonald isn’t going to drop much in the strikeout department and should be a decent SP option for years to come. The Pirates should improve and McDonald’s value will rise with his team’s.
by Jeremy Miedzinski on Feb 1, 2011 1:15 AM EST up reply actions
agreed
Jeremy nailed it on the head. Santana is no sure thing. If you’re gambling that late, go for upside.
+1
I will be surprised if we ever see the old johan when he returns.
Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Feb 1, 2011 10:52 PM EST up reply actions
on a somewhat related note,
I think we’ve seen the last great Chipper Jones season. I love that he’s coming back. The play he made when he injured himself was incredible. It would have been a beautiful way to end a career but he’s giving it one more shot.
Jeremy Miedzinski
www.faketeams.com
mattinglyssideburns.blogspot.com
by Jeremy Miedzinski on Feb 1, 2011 11:21 PM EST up reply actions
agreed
I was going to do a post on whoever will benefit with him on the bench. Has to be an OFer, right? Prado to 3b?
Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Feb 2, 2011 1:26 PM EST up reply actions
yeah Prado will get 3B if Chipper's out.
Jeremy Miedzinski
www.faketeams.com
mattinglyssideburns.blogspot.com
by Jeremy Miedzinski on Feb 3, 2011 1:51 AM EST up reply actions
Awesome write up!
Why is this not on the front page?
They got a name for the winners in the world...They call Alabama the Crimson Tide!
it was....
Ray Guilfoyle
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www.sbnation.com
www.minorleagueball.com
by Ray Guilfoyle on Feb 1, 2011 10:52 PM EST up reply actions
Bud Norris over Johan?
Thanks for the advice. I’m definitely going to reserve a keeper spot for McDonald. I’m wondering if the same advice would hold for keeping Bud Norris over Johan. If I deal Johan away for a draft pick, I can either keep Bud Norris or stash Kris Medlen away on my DL. Which option sounds like the best way to go?
DL
If you’re going to store Medlen on the DL, why not just stash Johan there until he returns? At least Johan gives you a chance to succeed this season.
I like Norris' K-rate
but I’m skeptical about how much more improvement we’ll see from him. He’s a better GB and K guy than McDonald with much worse walk totals. He gives up too many hits and HRs to be giving up that many walks so at least a couple of those areas should be fixed. I expect the HRs allowed to drop but less sure about hits against and walks declining. Pitching in Houston doesn’t help either.
I’m a Medlen fan but sadly he’s probably not worth stashing. He won’t have a spot in the rotation waiting for him when he gets back and who knows if he’ll return to the way he was pitching before getting hurt. He’ll probably be a decent innings soaker in the bullpen with the odd spot start. He’s still only 25 and had great numbers coming up so I wouldn’t count him out though.
I’d rather take my chances with Johan returning in time to help out on the stretch run. Think of him as a trade deadline acquisition.
Jeremy Miedzinski
www.faketeams.com
mattinglyssideburns.blogspot.com
by Jeremy Miedzinski on Feb 3, 2011 2:15 AM EST reply actions
I like McGee
if he gets the closer job he should be a good pick-up. He has good strikeout numbers in the minors but he may see some troubles as he adjusts to the majors. I’d put him a bit below Kimbrel due to less Ks but he’s the next best option if you’re looking for a cheap closer.
Jeremy Miedzinski
www.faketeams.com
mattinglyssideburns.blogspot.com
by Jeremy Miedzinski on Feb 4, 2011 12:36 AM EST up reply actions
I just see McGee as just a good a chance at the closer role as Kimbrel
maybe even better, sine there really isnt a guy like Venters in house.
I just don’t have a lot of faith in Howell being good to go and take the job back.
Would that be jack cheese? ~RWShow
Kimbrel
was used in high leverage situations last year in Sept-Oct….but I think McGee eventually gets the closer gig in TB this season, assuming he doesn;t have it out of ST.
Ray Guilfoyle
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www.sbnation.com
www.minorleagueball.com
by Ray Guilfoyle on Feb 7, 2011 4:32 PM EST up reply actions
Borbon
Not high on him at all. Washington is committed to Andrus at leadoff, and even if he decides to go a different direction, the feeling is that he could revert to Ian Kinsler in that spot. If Borbon isn’t hitting leadoff (and seriously, the possibility of that is extremely low), he’s at #9 – the hidden leadoff hitter that LaRussa made popular a couple of years ago. That means fewer PAs. Even with those PAs, he’s not very productive. An OPS of .649, a BABIP way higher than it should be, an ISO of .058 at the Ballpark in Arlington…no thanks.
There are two reasons that Borbon is going to get playing time this year: (1) His glove, and (2) the organization’s reluctance to play Josh Hamilton in CF. If not for that, the starting 3 would certainly be Murphy, Hamilton, and Cruz. In fact, Borbon may get even less playing time than last year. With Michael Young, Mike Napoli, and Mitch Moreland sharing 1B/DH responsibilities, there’s no reason to expect Hamilton or Cruz to get many days off in the field by playing DH, and Wash will want to give Murphy plenty of opportunities.
Borbon may end up doing something with his (limited) opportunity, but there’s really no good reason to think so.
by Robert L. Bishop on Feb 4, 2011 1:07 AM EST reply actions
I dont like Borbon that much either
but Im pretty sure he lead off way more than Andrus last season.
Would that be jack cheese? ~RWShow
Andrus was #1 in the lineup in 134 games (out of 148 played) last season
Borbon was #1 14 times and #9 100 times.
by Robert L. Bishop on Feb 4, 2011 10:56 AM EST up reply actions
huh.
I didnt look it up, but since I own Elvis in a keeper league it sure felt like he was at the bottom of the order more than that.
Would that be jack cheese? ~RWShow
Borbon
I mentioned playing time might be an issue for Borbon but I still like him if he’s given a chance to play. He has well above average contact skills so he’s going to have a high average and as for his BABIP being way higher than it should, it was only .313 which could even be considered low for a player with his speed. He’ll help roto teams with AVG and SB and you’re right about it being a long shot to lead off but even hitting #9 he’ll score a decent number of runs. He won’t contribute any power but he should be solid in 2 categories with some contribution in Runs. Not a stud but useful late in the draft.
Jeremy Miedzinski
www.faketeams.com
mattinglyssideburns.blogspot.com
by Jeremy Miedzinski on Feb 4, 2011 7:22 PM EST up reply actions
BABIP should always be used in relation with LD%
With an LD% of 13.3, his xBABIP was .253. The .313 is actually a pretty big outlier.
by Robert L. Bishop on Feb 6, 2011 9:22 AM EST up reply actions
I wouldn't count on that low LD% repeating
The reason he struggled early is he wasn’t driving the ball. He was being timid and trying to place the ball in play and turned things around after he began driving the ball more. I’m pretty confident he won’t repeat that 13.3 LD% so his BABIP shouldn’t be much of an issue next year unless he goes back to hitting the ball softly every time trying to place it.
Jeremy Miedzinski
www.faketeams.com
mattinglyssideburns.blogspot.com
by Jeremy Miedzinski on Feb 6, 2011 10:16 AM EST reply actions
however
if he repeats that 13 LD% you’re absolutely right about doubting him. I just suspect we’ll see something closer to 16-17%. I think he’s worth watching to see how his playing time is handled cause he could help teams looking for AVG and SB as a mid season waiver pick up. Washington doesn’t seem like much of a fan so that will probably hurt him but a better start than last year where he’s hitting near .300 with that defense and speed and it will be hard to justify sitting him.
Jeremy Miedzinski
www.faketeams.com
mattinglyssideburns.blogspot.com
by Jeremy Miedzinski on Feb 6, 2011 7:46 PM EST up reply actions

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