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Fantasy Hockey: Calling All Questions

Hey folks. With the season starting to ramp up, I'll be stepping up coverage here as well. If anything's keeping you up at night, fire away. I mean, if it's fantasy hockey related. I don't want to know the other stuff. You can post questions here or e-mail them directly to me at JackWeiland@gmail.com.

Today's question comes from PostmanMatt:

"I found out about Niemi signing with the Sharks a couple of days back and I was wondering how his signing affects the rank of Niittymaki and Niemi respectively."

Wisdom after the jump:

Star-divide

So Antti Niemi signed with San Jose, eh? (See what I did there?). And you want to know how that affects his value and the value of Antero Niittymaki. Gotcha.

Step 1: PANIC!!!!!!

Seriously. If you own Niemi or Niitymaki this is a relatively crushing blow. They both go from the "Average Goalie, Good Team" category into the dreaded and unruly "Average Goalie Tandem" ... anyone who owned Manny Fernandez and/or Dwayne Roloson circa 2000-2006 can relate. 

Step 2: Keep Panicking!!!!!!

I am not kidding. Find your fantasy ledge and jump. It's better this way.

Step 3: Alright. Relax. Deep Breath. This Can All Be Fixed.

I'm just saying that. Nothing is fine, everything is ruined.

Step 4: For Realizes, ****ing Chill Out Bro.

Niemi and Niitymaki are remarkably similar goalies. Both Finish, both a tad over 6 feet, both right around league average. In 39 games last year Niemi saw just 24 shots a game and stopped 91.2% of them. In 49 games with the Lightning, Niittymaki saw about 28 shots a game and stopped 90.9% of them. In Niittymaki's last four seasons he's had save percentages of .894, .907, .912 and .909, which really runs the gamut from "Totally Awful" to "Passably Average." Playing for one of the league's best teams in San Jose, and behind a strong defense, it's easy to see why people saw value there earlier in the offseason. He (like Niemi last year with Chicago) won't have to stand on his head to put up numbers. As long as he plays well enough to keep his job Niittymaki was a pretty solid bet for a .910 save percentage, a 2.50 goals against average and a buttload of wins. Now with Niemi in town ... well, everything changes.

It obviously remains to be seen how the two will split time. Will they share the crease evenly? Will the Sharks go with the hot hand? What happens in camp will probably determine a chunk of that, and there's no way of knowing how that will shake out until it does. For the time being, Niemi and Niittymaki still have some value. After all they are both still league average goalies who will play on one of the best puck possession teams in the game. When they're in the net, they'll put up strong numbers. If you can afford to walk that line and check the lineups, so be it. If not, it's time to cut bait and find someone who will play every day. From the Sharks' perspective, a Niittymaki-Niemi combo makes sense, and is probably better than a Niittymaki-Greiss combo. From a fantasy perspective, trying to play that platoon is an absolute nightmare. I'd avoid it at almost any cost. If league average starters are out there who stand a better chance of playing 60+ games, grab 'em. Guys like Jean-Sebastien Giguere, Carey Price, Cam Ward, Kari Lehtonen, Pekka Rinne, Niklas Backstrom, Steve Mason and Marc-Andre Fleurymight still be available and ripe for the picking. Any of those guys would be better options than Niemi or Niittymaki at this point, but as some have learned everything is subject to change. This is precisely why I prefer grabbing safe options in net to speculating on something like an average goalie getting a boost from playing on a strong team. Talent always wins out.

Poll
San Jose's goalies ... now what?
Niittymaki
4 votes
Niemi
23 votes
Neither
8 votes
Both
8 votes

43 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 7 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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The poll

It was pretty satisfying to cast my vote, the only one, and watch that bar run all the way to 100%. Success.

by jackweiland on Sep 8, 2010 10:16 AM EDT reply actions  

Overpaying...

I’ve been doing some 12 team mock drafts lately on Yahoo and people have been consistently drafting Niemi in the 6th round, likely assuming he gets the starting job. I think Niemi could win the job over time but with the timeshare not clear at all, it’s very odd that people are overreacting to this news, don’t you think?

by PostmanMatt on Sep 8, 2010 8:29 PM EDT reply actions  

Extremely so

It’s probable that they’re overvaluing Niemi based on him being a “Cup winning goalie” … but in reality that means nothing. He won a Cup but was probably the 5th or 6th most important factor in doing so. I’d expect more of a 50-50 split. At most, it’ll be more along 65-35 (53 starts vs. 29). As I said above I would take almost any full-time starter above those two. They still have value in a platoon, but not much unless you can be REALLY on top of who is starting on which days and your league allows you to cycle them through.

Either way 6th round is INSANELY early. Avoid.

by jackweiland on Sep 8, 2010 8:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

Also

Consider which goalies went in the 6th round of the Mock Draft I did: http://www.faketeams.com/2010/9/8/1650113/fantasy-hockey-experts-league-mock

Ward, Vokoun, Hiller, Turco … Niemi would fit right in there if he wasn’t in a timeshare. So would Niittymaki, honestly, but the reality is they’re in a timeshare, and one that is probably going to be unclear/wishy-washy all season long. I’d steer clear if possible. If not, try to acquire both and go from there. They can’t be trading for that much these days.

by jackweiland on Sep 8, 2010 8:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

I Love It!

No votes for NiIttymaki! Niemi should be pretty valuable fantasy asset going forward in San Jose.

by bezeerk on Sep 8, 2010 10:15 PM EDT reply actions  

Really?

I just don’t see it. He could be valuable if you got him really late, but at the price you’re going to have to pay? No way Jose.

by jackweiland on Sep 9, 2010 9:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

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