Dollar Bin Vulture Wins- fantasy baseball stretch run

It's hard to believe that we are in the stretch run of the fantasy baseball season but with most leagues having their weeks remaining in the single digits it is time to consider addressing needs, especially in roto baseball categories.  One difficult category is wins.  Expected wins for a pitcher could probably be laid out in some Pythagorean record stat but I have my own theory (more like an educated guess) that a set up pitcher who throws the entire season for a winning team should end up with 6-7 wins.  That total is from skimming the stats over the past several years.  

The first time I checked out the stats of set up pitchers was several years back when I picked up Rudy Seanez late in the year.  He had an unusually low number of wins at the time but by the end of the year the win total was where it should be.  The bright side of all this is he picked up like 3-4 wins in a month's time during this period.

So I checked out this year's set up pitchers,  listed by mlbdepthcharts.com .   And I used a number of criteria to whittle down my list to a final roster of pitchers who could be looking at a high number of wins as we finish this season.  

Here's the criteria-

1.  Must be a set up pitcher (not middle relief) according to mlbdepthcharts.com  ;

2.  Must pitch for a team with a Pythagorean Record of at least .500;

3.  Must have pitched at least 35 innings;

4.  Cannot have more than two wins total thus far this season

5.  Must have an ERA under 4.00 and a WHIP under 1.40.

The reason a pitcher must throw in a set up role is simple for a couple reasons- first, he's normally the second best bullpen arm on the team (if not the best).  And secondly, even though you may need wins, you don't want to get killed in the other categories.  Set up guys come into games in winning situations- either a tied game or his team has a lead.  If the set up guy gets into trouble the manager is going to yank him.  A pitcher who throws in losing situations, ie long relief or when the team is losing, may be left on the mound when they get in trouble.  That can kill your fantasy team's stat line.  About the only situation where you will see a true set up guy in a losing situation is when he has not pitched in several days and the manager is just trying to get him some work in.

The reason a pitcher must throw for a team with a Pythagorean Record of at least .500 is because wins for a reliever are not much different than wins for a starter.  A team that has a lot of wins is more likely to trickle down some of those to the bullpen guys.  And on that note,  a team's Pythagorean Record may be a better overall gauge of how many games a team will win down the stretch to finish the year.

A pitcher has to have at least 35 innings because they have to be "due" wins.  This should be simple enough to explain and understand.  But a set up guy with only a handful of innings and a win or two is really not off the pace he should be on.

A pitcher cannot have more than two wins, otherwise his win total thus far (based on the other factors involved) are not an anomaly.  We are trying to find pitchers who will get an unusually high number of wins down the stretch.  Guys that are due a few extra wins are the target.

 The ERA and WHIP totals are just to insure your pitcher will be, at least, fairly solid.  These stats will be indicative of a set up guy who will be able to remain in that role the remainder of the season.

One caveat is that mlbdepthcharts.com lists all teams with two set up guys.  Unless things have changed since I last watched baseball, there is one set up guy who is the man, not two.  So when you check out the Rays, just remember one of the two listed may be more likely to be the set up guy than the other.  Whether this makes a ton of difference on a team that will win as many games as the Rays is a question I can't answer.  If I needed wins I would grab any guy on this list, although not all will be available in most leagues.  And another caveat- I tweaked the info provided on Kyle McClellan because of Jason Motte going on the DL and I really doubt TLR has two lefties as his set up guys, although mlbdepthcharts.com says differently- believe who you want.  And Matt Guerrier was given the ** treatment because his status may have recently changed with the Jon Rauch injury and demotion from the closer role.

Now let's get started with the list and see who all qualifies based on the above criteria-

National League

Takashi Saito,  1 W, 42 IP Braves Pythagorean Record 63-45

Clay Hensley,  1 W, 49.2 IP, Marlins Pythagorean Record 55-53

Guillermo Mota, 1 W, 40.1 IP, Giants Pythagorean Record 64-45

** Kyle McClellan, 1 W, 51.2 IP,Cardinals Pythagorean Record 62-48, (listed as mid. relief but should be set up guy IMO since Motte's on the DL and the two set up guys listed are both lefties)

American League-

Daniel Bard, 1 W, 50 IP,   Red Sox Pythagorean Record 61-48

Jesse Crain, 1 W, 45.1 IP, Twins Pythagorean Record 64-45

Brad Ziegler, 2 W, 44.1 IP,  A's Pythagorean Record  56-51

Darren Oliver, 0 W, 46 IP, Rangers Pythagorean Record 64-44

Joaquin Benoit, 0 W, 39.1 IP, Rays Pythagorean Record 67-41

Dan Wheeler, 2 W, 35 IP, Rays Pythagorean Record  67-41

** Matt Guerrier,  2 W, 49 IP, Twins Pythagorean Record 64-45 (listed as middle relief, this may have recently changed to set up role)

Now if we take all eleven of the guys above and figure we should have around 60-70 wins by the end of the year, based on my previous belief that set up guys should end the season with 6-7 wins each.  But the eleven guys above have a total of 12 wins with maybe a third of the season to go.  In its purest form that would mean we could expect 50+ wins from these guys to finish out the year.  I don't think we could get that fortunate.  But I definitely think we could see 30-35 wins out of this crew, possibly more- health permitting.  And remember these guys are not going to hurt your  stats in other areas.  Most have very nice stats across the board- the best of which is they will be getting bailed out by the bullpen of any trouble they get themselves into...at least that's what is supposed to happen.