Fantasy Football: The Great Unknown?

Is it possible that when Donald Rumsfeld famously coined the term "known unknowns" he was making an allusion to training camp injuries?  We know that at least a hand full of fantasy relevant football players will be hurt over the course of the next month of useless-to-fantasy running, cutting, blocking, and tackling.  We don’t yet know the "who".

A few of the "who’s" revealed themselves this weekend as three of the NFL’s most dazzling young wide receivers were hobbled with injury.  Second year pros Percy Harvin and DeSean Jackson avoided significant injury and their draft status should be unaffected.  Rookie Dez Bryant’s rookie camp ended abruptly last week after suffering a high ankle sprain.  He is expected to miss over a month of action.

Roy Williams is suddenly fantasy relevant again

A more seasoned wideout might handle such a setback and still be mentally and physically ready for week 1.  But for a rookie, the lack of experience is a crippling blow, one that could derail Bryant’s entire rookie campaign.  Remember that in the NFL, most wide receivers (even those highly touted like Bryant) require at least a year of experience before breaking out from a fantasy perspective.

All receivers require a good deal of rep time with their quarterback; the fact that Bryant had barely one full day of practice with Romo and co. means that the rookie will have little working knowledge with the nuances of his dense NFL playbook.  Ever is it true that the kind of chemistry we see on Sunday is obtained during two-a-days in the swelter of August’s camps.  The lack of snaps are a killer.

Bryant won’t even be able to help carry pads for veteran ….

Roy Williams, the enigmatic former first round pick who, despite doing everything in his power to lose his starting flanker position since joining with Dallas, finds himself in the drivers seat for the #2 wideout spot on an offense poised for a breakout statistical season.  The Cowgirls (sorry, Giant fan) have an emerging superstar in Miles Austin, will continue to get great production out of all-pro TE Jason Witten, and can count on a three-pronged RB attack that can pound the rock (Marion Barber) or beat you with big play (Felix Jones), pass-catching (Tashard Choice) backfield ability  .

Williams ADP (average draft position) currently hovers around the 12th round of mock drafts (a number sure to rise based on the nature of Bryant’s injury) and he will go from fantasy irrelevance to sleeper status overnight.  As a potential piece of the Dallas offensive picture, the consideration is warranted, in spite of some of the concerns fantasy GM’s ought to have regarding Williams.

But while there are certainly big fat question marks surrounding Williams’ woeful slide since arriving in Big D, there is no questioning his ability to post solid totals.  He is just four years removed from an impressive 80 catch, 1300 yard season.  And remember that Williams, 28, is well before the mid-thirties threshold that seems to rob wide receivers of their potency.  While he isn’t going to blow the doors off of anyone at this point in his career, Williams still possesses above average size to break press coverage and superb leaping ability to come down with jump balls.

Williams’ hands are a bit of a concern (a team high 8 drops last season) but this summer Roy vowed to fix the problem, going so far as to say that he would "bet anybody in the world" that he will hang onto targets thrown his way this year.  So that’s good to know.  That or Williams has added a degenerative gambling habit to his litany of on-field question marks.  Either way, the injury to Bryant might mean Williams’ target number turns out much higher than anticipated.

If Williams performs as he is capable in the Dallas offense, he should hang onto the #2 receiver spot for the duration of the 2010 campaign.  He has too much talent, too much gas left in the tank.  Perhaps more importantly, Williams has more NFL experience than the rookie.  Bryant shouldn’t be counted on for considerable snaps until at least week 4 of the regular season as those games will likely serve as his "preseason".  That will buy Williams some time to shine.   If he falters however, Jerry Jones will see to it that his first round investment be on the field.  Youth movements are easy that way.  Growing pains are better than Arthritis for the same reason.  We know the direction it’s going.

I’m not saying to stay away from Dez Bryant.  But unfortunately his ADP likely won’t drop enough to warrant a selection in the middle of the fifth round.  The buzz surrounding Bryant won’t allow for it.  For a fifth round pick, Bryant would have to meet fairly lofty rookie expectations.  And this is to say nothing of the injury he suffered.  To expect what would be considered a "breakout" season at this point in time isn’t reasonable.  Bryant obviously has greater value in keeper leagues and is a top 5 dynasty wide receiver pick.

As for Williams?  He remains a high risk/high reward pick.  There are players with less athletic ability on teams with lesser offensive attacks who will receive more attention on draft day than Roy Williams.  Feel confident and take him with a tenth round selection.  It’s a fair price tag to pay for a player who by years end could be a "known known".