A Closer Look: Rockies Shortstop Troy Tulowitzki

by Ray Guilfoyle on Aug 19, 2010 10:15 AM EDT in Baseball

Coming off a 2009 season that saw him hit 30 HRs and steal 20 bases, Rockies SS Troy Tulowtizki was ranked as the second best fantasy SS for 2010 behind Hanley Ramirez. Some fantasy owners had high expectations for Tulo, including me, as I ranked him as my #2 shortstop heading into the 2010 season.

But injuries and high expectations have resulted in a good, but not great, season for Tulowitzki. To date, he is hitting .317-.380-.508 with 12 HRs, 51 RBIs, and just 8 SBs. The triple slash stats are very nice, but I was expecting a bit more in the power department. I did not think he could duplicate his SB total from 2009,.

His BABIP of .348 is slightly higher than his career BABIP of .321, so there could be some regression in his BA between now and the end of the season. He is striking out less this year-17% vs 21% in 2009, and walking less-9% vs almost 12% in 2009. Tulo is still getting on base at a good clip, and he is making more contact, which is a good sign.

What is not a good sign is that he is not hitting as many flyballs as last year-39% vs 40% in 2009, and is hitting more infield flyballs (IFFB) this season-16% vs 12% in 2009. As a result, he is also hitting more ground balls than in 2009-44% in 2010 vs 42% in 2009. All in all, I think Tulo's batted ball figures are not that bad, and could be a result of him being on the DL a few times this season. Players lose their timing at the plate when injured, and it takes awhile for it to come back.

Going into 2011 drafts, I think Tulowitzki will still be the 2nd ranked SS at a very thin position. He should be drafted in the early rounds of drafts unless you want to be stuck with Yunel Escobar at SS.

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Tulo had 32 home runs last season season not 30

Also, you say that he’s been on the DL a few times this season. He’s only been on the DL once for a fractured wrist.

When you consider that he’s only played in 81 games so far this season (half of the 162 games on the schedule) because of his wrist injury you can just double the compiling stats to figure out how good his numbers would have been for the season if he did not get hurt. Take those 12 HR’s, 51 RBI’s, and 8 SB’s and turn them inot 24 HR’s 102 RBI’s, and 16 stolen bases and you have a pretty damn good season.

Tulo’s wOBA this season through 81 games is .390 compard to last year’s .393 so it’s prety safe to say that his numbers would be just about as good as last year if he didn’t get hurt especially when you consider that most of the damage he has done in his career has come from June on (He went on the DL on June 17th)

As long as Tulo doesn’t suffer any more freak injuries, I think the numbers you saw last year are pretty much what you are going to get year in and year out from him.

The 2010 Rockies are done!!!!! Do you hear me Rockies? You have NO SHOT at making the postseason. In fact I guarantee you will not make the postseason. (Okay, now that I have removed all expectations go out and make me eat these words)

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by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Aug 19, 2010 10:48 AM EDT reply actions

Isn't that the point when discussing Tulo

In Tulo’s 4 years as a full timer MLB player, 2 of those years (this one included) he has missed significant time. When he is on the field he tends to be quite good, but it does happen that some people are prone to ‘freak’ injuries.

At this point it is just as likely, in my opinion, that he plays 100 games next year or 140+ games next year.

With it being such a weak position, I wouldn’t gamble early in drafts to get him until he shows he can consistently stay on the field. Same story with someone like Ian Kinsler – regardless what the injury may be, if you aren’t on the field, you can’t contribute in the box score to your team’s success.

by Bluethunder33 on Aug 19, 2010 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions

I don't buy the notion that Tulowitzki is injury prone

Tulo has been on the DL three times in his major league career; once when he tore his quad, once when he ripped his hand open while slamming a bat in frustration after striking out, and once for a broken wrist after getting hit with a 95mph fastball.

So to review, that’s one athletic injury and two freak accidents in four seasons in the majors. You can’t keep expecting freak injuries to happen. That’s why they are called freak injuries. If he had been to the DL three times for athletic injuries then I would be concerned.

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by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Aug 19, 2010 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions

not sure

I don’t know if we can say that he is injury prone… yet. But at this point, it should be surprising if he lands on the DL for, I don’t know, rolling out of bed and straining his shoulder… he is equally as likely to play 150 games next year.

Neither scenario would surprise me… and thats why there is this word called ‘risk’… if you are willing to take the bet that he stays on the field, and he does, then you win…

Until we get another couple seasons into his career, I don’t know if we can draw any definite conclusions regarding if he is just unlucky with his health or if he can kick the DL habit and stay on the field.

by Bluethunder33 on Aug 19, 2010 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions

correction

meant to say… ‘it should not be surprising’… in the first paragraph

by Bluethunder33 on Aug 19, 2010 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions

We can draw conclusions by separating the injuries into two categories

1) Athletic injuries
2) Freak injuries

Numerous athletic injuries mean the player is injury prone, numerous freak injuries mean that the player has been unlucky but is no more likely to suffer more freak injuries than someone who has not.

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by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Aug 19, 2010 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions

maybe

but I say it doesn’t really matter because he isn’t on the field when either of those happen to him… if its his fault or not isn’t the question… its whether you feel confident he will be on the field to help your team

If he gets hit by a pitch or pulls a hammy running or stubs his toe by kicking a dog… it doesn’t really matter…

I personally don’t feel confident that he will be on the field consistently enough to use an early draft pick on him… maybe he goes to swat a mosquito from his face and ends up giving himself a concussion… doesn’t matter that it wasn’t an athletic injury – bottom line is that he will be out of action.

by Bluethunder33 on Aug 19, 2010 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree that is only matters if you are on the field or not

but I think our disagreement here is the weight we are putting on past freak injuries to predict future freak injuries. I would completely agree that you can do this for athletic injuries but I just don’t see how getting hit in the wrist makes you more vulnerable to having other freak injuries in the future.

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by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Aug 19, 2010 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree

I don’t know what some folks in here are smoking. Some people just see DL and go crazy. I guess Tulowitzki should tell pitchers not to hit him in the wrist because you know, he controls that sort of thing. Nevermind, how quickly he came back (relative to initial diagnosis) and started producing.

by bezeerk on Aug 19, 2010 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions

he has missed

40 games…..he’s not injury prone? what is it then so what if he has been on the DL once.

raygu
www.faketeams.com
www.sbnation.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Aug 19, 2010 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions

As I said above

Tulo has been unlucky with injuries. Anyone could have gotten hit on the wrist with a 95 mph fastball. There is no way I’m going to call a guy who has been on the DL once in his four year career for an athletic injury an injury prone player.

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by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Aug 19, 2010 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions

smoking

stogies over here….prefer Romeo Y Julieta’s myself

raygu
www.faketeams.com
www.sbnation.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Aug 19, 2010 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions

he has had other injuries as well

i saw him get hurt making a play at SS and was taken out of the game…..SS is a demanding position

raygu
www.faketeams.com
www.sbnation.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Aug 19, 2010 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions

He missed only a couple of games for that and that was only because the Rockies were being super cautious with him

The next series the Rockies played agaisnt Toronto after Tulo came out of the final game in a series against the Dodgers was marred by rain and the Rockies did not want to chance losing their star player so they went the ultra cautious route and sat him out a couple of games.

Tulo even said he could have played in those games.

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by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Aug 19, 2010 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Tulo

has been hurt a few times, so i missed how many times hes been on the DL this year. Even still, he has played just 82 games this season, and missed what….40 games? Freak injuries or no, he is injury prone.
He is still a solid player, but he isn’t going to approach his 2009 stats again, especially playing SS.

raygu
www.faketeams.com
www.sbnation.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Aug 19, 2010 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions

What does playing SS have to do with numbers he puts up at the plate?

You can’t be serious with that argument! I guess playing catcher has really harmed Mauer’s numbers, you know with him patting .442 in the second half of the season. I gotta tell you, playing SS has really hurt Jeter’s career. He should have been a DH.

by bezeerk on Aug 19, 2010 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions

actually it is...

I think it is a valid argument.

People like Tulo for his power production – that is not Jeter’s game. 3 times in 15 seasons has Jeter even cracked 20 HR and never has he sniffed 30+ HR like Tulo. Jeter had 2 seasons above 80 RBI – usually in the 70 RBI range… Jeter is not a guy you throw into the #3-5 hole in your batting order – he sets the table. Tulo on the other hand, to this point in his career, has been the power run producer…

It is very common to have have Catchers and Shortstops move to positions that are thought to be less physically demanding. Happens all the time. A-Rod to 3B from SS for example – he won a gold glove at SS so why move him and not Jeter when he came to NY? Because its less physically demanding and they hired him for his big bat – nothing else…

by Bluethunder33 on Aug 19, 2010 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions

ARod moved because Jeter didn't want to

Even though Jeter would have helped the team by moving because ARod was a much better defensive shortstop, he didn’t want to give up his position.

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by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Aug 19, 2010 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions

He is still a solid player, but he isn’t going to approach his 2009 stats again, especially playing SS

Uh, Tulo’s wOBA this year is right where it was for the season last year. Of course his compiling stats are going to be lower because he’s missed time but all he has to do next year is just not get hit in the wrist with a fastball or slice open his had with his bat and he will post his 2009 numbers again.

In fact, if just take Tulo’s last 162 games, he’s hitting .322 with 32 home runs, a .390 OBP, and a .951 OPS. If anything I think he’s still growing as a player.

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by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Aug 19, 2010 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions

let's see

how his next 82 games go. I could be wrong….won’t be the first nor the last.

Did you guys read that I think he is the 2nd best fantasy SS behind Hanley?

raygu
www.faketeams.com
www.sbnation.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Aug 19, 2010 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah

I liked that part :-)

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by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Aug 19, 2010 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions

SS

is a demanding position, thus, he could get injured yet again…..he’s a big guy for a SS…

raygu
www.faketeams.com
www.sbnation.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Aug 19, 2010 1:44 PM EDT reply actions

This is an issue that may come to a head in a couple of seasons.

I don’t really expect it at all in 2011 or probably not even 2012, but down the road he could be moving to third base, particularly if Ian Stewart continues to stagnate and Chris Nelson or Hector Gomez pop.

by Rox Girl on Aug 19, 2010 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions

+1

by Bluethunder33 on Aug 19, 2010 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Rox Girl!!

has to be your first comment on this site, no?

Nelson to SS?? He’s not getting younger though….he’ll be…what….26-27 in 2012?

raygu
www.faketeams.com
www.sbnation.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Aug 19, 2010 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Right in his prime...

The only reason the Rockies moved him off the position is that Tulo’s blocking him there, he can still play it well enough.

by Rox Girl on Aug 19, 2010 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions

Tulo's mullet

Does it distract anyone else? It’s hard for me to concentrate hard enough to seriously discuss him looking at that … thing … on his head.

by jackweiland on Aug 19, 2010 2:02 PM EDT reply actions

Vin Scully

was talking about his mullet last night….and was asking “what is a mullet?”
he had no idea

raygu
www.faketeams.com
www.sbnation.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Aug 19, 2010 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions

ha

Yeah I heard that. “Mullet to me is a fish!” – Vin Scully

Good ole Vin Scully. The last of the charmingly clueless old tart baseball analysts.

by jackweiland on Aug 19, 2010 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions

He's growing the mullet for charity

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by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Aug 19, 2010 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions

Really?

That is great. I wasn’t bashing the mullet. I just find myself mesmerized by it to the point I cannot logically discuss his merits as a baseball player. When he cuts it off I’ll join in the fight here.

by jackweiland on Aug 20, 2010 9:13 AM EDT up reply actions

AND!

Truth be told, it’s a pretty sick mullet. He gives Patrick Kane’s playoff mullet a run for the money, certainly.

by jackweiland on Aug 20, 2010 9:14 AM EDT up reply actions

The thing with Tulow

that you have to realize is he is going to put up the bulk of his numbers after June 1. When the injury happened, he seemed to be a lock to pass 25 HR again based on his usual second half performance. It’s not a surprise that the HR haven’t come in huge bunches since his return from the DL, as a broken hand has to affect your power stroke somewhat. I fully expect Tulowitzki to challenge 30/15 again next year, and if he can ever produce in the first two months of the season, I don’t think 35+ HRs are out of the question.

by Bradsbeard on Aug 20, 2010 1:21 PM EDT reply actions