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Around SBN: Which Players Will Join The 3,000-Hit Club?

Fantasy Hockey: Defense Tiers

Drew Doughty excites me. And also he is a pretty good defenseman.

Tier ye, tier ye!!!!

(BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!)

Sorry. Once I thought of it I had to use it. Anyway, continuing to ...

(Hold on, am I fired?? ... No?! Wow.)

Continuing to, uh, roll these out. As I was saying.

OVERVIEW: Defense value is the most wide-ranging aspects of fantasy hockey, depending on league setup. No other position can be worth so much or so little depending on the rules of your particular league. In some leagues (generally ones with separate scoring modifiers for forwards and defense) top D can have every bit as much value as top forwards or top goalies. In other leagues (generally where the scoring is standard across all positions) they are not as integral to your fantasy glory. With that in mind, we can certainly piece out the different tiers among blueliners. Right to it after the jump:

Star-divide

TIER I - We Five Kings.

Mike Green, Washington

Duncan Keith, Chicago

Drew Doughty, Los Angeles

Dan Boyle, San Jose

Nicklas Lidstrom, Detroit

No warts on any of these guys. They're five of the best offensive defensemen in the league, they have little or no injury history and they all play on dynamic offensive teams. Green's the best of the bunch, but it wouldn't surprise to see any one of these guys lead the league in scoring next season.

 

TIER II - Juuuuuuust A Bit Outside.

Sergei Gonchar, Ottawa

Chris Pronger, Philadelphia

Tyler Myers, Buffalo

Tomas Kaberle, Toronto

Tobias Enstrom, Atlanta

Shea Weber, Smashville

Mark Streit, New York Islanders

Brian Campbell, Chicago

Zdeno Chara, Boston

Brian Rafalski, Detroit

Andrei Markov, Montreal

There's a lot of talent in this tier, and each of these dudes has the skill and opportunity (to varying degrees of course) of playing alongside those Tier I studs. But this is also the tier where the questions begin. Gonchar's always hurt. Pronger just went under the knife. Is Markov alive healthy? Can Myers' offensive game match his debut? Who is going to help Kaberle, Enstrom, Weber and Streit pad their stats? Can Campbell, Rafalski and Chara bounce back after sub-par years by their lofty standards? The answer to some of these questions will be yes, but some of them will be no. They just aren't the can't-miss, sure-fire targets found in Tier I. So they're in Tier II. Boo-f***ing hoo Chris Pronger. Shut up.*

TIER III - Guys Who Are Modestly Worse Than The Guys Above Them.

Lubomir Visnovsky, Anaheim

Christian Ehrhoff, Vancouver

Bryan McCabe, Florida

Erik Johnson, St. Louis

Keith Yandle, Phoenix

Alex Goligoski, Pittsburgh

Dion Phaneuf, Toronto

Jay Bouwmeester, Calgary 

Ran out of pithy tier titles. I know, I couldn't even do anything with "Lubomir" ... wild. Anyway. These are all pretty safe 10-goal, 40-point bets who have ceilings even higher than that. Johnson, Yandle and Goligoski are up-and-coming rearguards (teehee) who could be poised for breakout seasons. Goligoski's power play time bears monitoring. If he's on the first unit with Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin he could be a real gem. Phaneuf and Bouwmeester were terrible last season, but there is no way they're actually that bad. There just isn't. Expect bouncebacks to at least 40 points and possibly much higher.

 

TIER IV - Unsexy 40-Point Producers.

Marek Zidlicky, Minnesota

Kurtis Foster, Edmonton

Ryan Whitney, Edmonton

Ian White, Calgary

Alexander Edler, Vancouver

Michael Del Zotto, New York Rangers

Filip Kuba, Ottawa

Pavel Kubina, Tampa Bay

Andy Greene, New Jersey

Ryan Suter, Smashville

Jack Johnson, Los Angeles

Tom Gilbert, Edmonton

Dennis Wideman, Florida

James Wisniewski, New York Islanders

Niklas Kronwall, Detroit

The difference here, between Tiers III and IV, are with upside. Tier IV players are still fairly safe bets to finish around 40 points, but they lack the 50-point upside of those ranked above them. They also aren't quite as strong goal-scoring threats and for the most part play on worse teams (so, worse +/-).

TIER V - Back End Contributors/Upside Picks.

Joni Pitkanen, Carolina

Marc-Andre Bergeron, Edmonton

Ed Jovanovski, Phoenix

Anton Stralman, Columbus

Carlo Colaiacovo, St. Louis

Fedor Tyutin, Columbus

John-Michael Liles, Colorado

Mark Giordano, Calgary

Kyle Quincey, Colorado

Adrian Aucoin, Phoenix

Kris Letang, Pittsburgh

Erik Karlsson, Ottawa

Zach Bogosian, Atlanta

Victor Hedman, Tampa Bay

Joe Corvo, Carolina

Ron Hainsey, Atlanta

Paul Martin, Pittsburgh

Roman Hamrlik, Montreal

Dmitri Kulikov, Florida

A bunch of 30-point guys in here, and some young players whose upside makes them as valuable. Of the group, Karlsson, Bogosian, Hedman and Corvo have the best upside. They're still probably a year or two away from moving up a few tiers, but it's certainly possible they arrive ahead of schedule. The rest aren't bad options for the back end of your fantasy defense if you league is deep enough.

 

TIER VI - Meet The Leftovers.

Stephane Robidas, Dallas

Dennis Seidenberg, Boston

Brent Seabrook, Chicago

Derek Morris, Phoenix

Sami Salo, Vancouver

Keith Ballard, Vancouver

Marc Staal, New York Rangers

Matt Gilroy, New York Rangers

Guys you will be cycling through on the waiver wire, hopefully. If you draft any of these dudes your name is probably Mike Milbury. Robidas might be tempting at some point, but the guy set a career high point total by a full 15 points at age 33. Avoid. Avoid avoid avoid!!! Staal and Gilroy have talent/potential, but it has yet to manifest itself as anything other than a pipe dream. Things can change, of course, but there isn't much reason to believe they will.

(*I would never, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever say that to his face. But I'm in my living room and he is not so SUCK IT!!!!!*)

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Is it just me or is Subban not in any of tiers??

He plays a solid game and when the d-corps in Mtl dwindled last season in the playoffs his ice time went from 10 mins to 19 mins to 25 or so…..although he hasn’t played a whole season yet, wouldn’t you mark him down for at least a 30 point season?
Why no love for Subban?

by honkytonk1 on Aug 19, 2010 3:03 PM EDT reply actions  

Good call

I’ll add him. I wouldn’t expect quite the production he put up in the playoffs but he’ll be useful, certainly. Just an oversight on my part.

by jackweiland on Aug 19, 2010 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

Nice job here!

Really enjoyed going through these rankings. I think you’ve correctly balanced the potential for guys like Erik Johnson and Hedman to contribute with what they’ve actually accomplished so far. I think you’re a little low on Brent Seabrook given that he is still just 25 and could step up his offensive game a notch combined with a guaranteed solid +/-. I usually try to have a defense with a couple of plus/minus monsters to balance out any risks I might take on higher scoring forwards on shitty teams (Penner, Kovalchuk circa. atlanta)

To this end, one guy left off here is Jeff Schultz. He only had 23 points last year, but +50 is a huge bonus. Could be a vital pickup for a team with defensivly challenged forwards.

Finally, I also think you might be a bit low on Kurtis Foster. Depending on what your team needs are, I might take him over Visnovsky, Bouwmeester, or McCabe. Guy has an absolute rocket and will receive lots of playing time in Edmonton. Injuries are a concern, but Foster received some time at Forward last year for Tampa and that is always a nice bonus for a guy normally on the blueline. Great job overall!

by brewerm on Aug 19, 2010 3:31 PM EDT reply actions  

Good stuff

Seabrook – You’re correct in that he does have SOME offensive talent, but the guy is just buried on that team. Between Keith and Campbell are pretty clearly the #1 and #2 power play d-men on that team, and Seabs is asked more to watch Keith’s back than to step up offensively. If there was an injury that created the need for him to step up in that fashion I think I’d have him higher. But as such the circumstances of his team are that he’s not going to be asked to do a whole lot more than play awesome, physicaly defense.

Schultz – You make a good sell. I don’t play in a +/- league so I overlook that sometimes. I think it’s probably easier to acquire a good +/- guy who doesn’t score much than the opposite though.

Foster – Actually I love the guy. He’s got a great story coming back from that horrendous injury. But for me the move from Tampa to Edmonton is IMMENSE. Seeing as he scored most of his points on a power play unit that had St. Louis, Stamkos and Lecavalier and now he’s moving to a team that has probably the worst forwards in the entire league … I think he’s going to take a hit. If Hall/Eberle/Paajarvi arrive a bit early that might be a different story. But for now, for me, that move is just going to squash the value he would have had. Great kid though!

by jackweiland on Aug 19, 2010 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

Fair points all

I’ll definitely be rooting for Foster though…he’s one of the good guys.

by brewerm on Aug 20, 2010 4:17 AM EDT up reply actions  

Also

There’s no way J-Bo is as bad as he was last year. There’s just no way. He’s got far too much talent. Right?

by jackweiland on Aug 19, 2010 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

Karlsson that low???

Kid is going to have a monster year with the help of sergie gonchar. I would put him in tier III for sure.

by asmallvictory31 on Aug 19, 2010 3:40 PM EDT reply actions  

Fair point

I think you might have a better case in Tier IV, to me the guys in Tier III are way better bets to put up 40-50 points. I think Gonch’s presence might hurt Karlsson as much as it helps him.

by jackweiland on Aug 19, 2010 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

Also

I think it’s possible guys like Hedman, Bogosian and Kulikov have strong years, but they just haven’t shown quite enough for me to fully believe it’ll be this particular season and not two or three years down the line. Karlsson’s shown the most of those upside picks, but we’re also discussing an NHL sample size of 60 games. And he’s now the second (possbily third?) best offensive defenseman on his own team. Not to mention it’s a team that’s sorta lacking firepower from its forwards.

Very, very, very possible I move Karlsson up the next time I do these rankings (I’ll check back in throughout the year) and then pretend like I had him pegged there all along. Get excited.

by jackweiland on Aug 19, 2010 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

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