Fantasy Baseball: Cliff Lee's Dominant 2010 Season

by Ray Guilfoyle on Aug 13, 2010 1:03 PM EDT in Baseball

I have become a regular reader of Jeff Sullivan's Five Numbers article over on SB Nation, and yesterday he wrote about Cliff Lee's fantastic walk rate. His walk rate back on June 24th, according to the article, was 0.42. Today, it is 0.39!!!

Jeff goes on to write about the number of times Lee has gotten himself into a 3-ball count. This list says it all:

Pitcher

Rate

Justin Verlander

8.7%

Jon Lester

8.7%

Cliff Lee

8.9%

Tim Lincecum

9.0%

Ian Kennedy

9.1%

Clay Buchholz

9.2%

Yovani Gallardo

9.2%

Jaime Garcia

9.5%

Included in this table, you get some really good pitchers, and their corresponding rates. But there's a catch. For Cliff Lee, you're seeing his three-ball count rate. For everyone else, you're seeing their walk rates.

Yes, Lee is having one magical season, and his timing could not be better as he will be a free agent in the offseason, and many feel the Yankees will be the highest bidder for his services. Shocking, right?

Here are Lee's peripheral stats according to Fangraphs:

Name	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	AVG	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP	E-F	xFIP
Cliff Lee	7.64	0.50	15.22	0.50	0.237	0.93	0.293	72.30%	2.57	2.32	0.25	3.27

His K/BB rate is beyond compare and is almost double that of the next closest pitcher-Roy Halladay. Crazy right? He only has 10 wins this season, but he should definitely be in the conversation for Cy Young. Would you take him over David Price?

Is he the best pitcher in baseball right now? Is he the first pitcher taken in 2011 drafts?

Poll

Is Cliff Lee the #1 SP in 2011 fantasy drafts?

Yes

41 votes

No, Halladay is #1

54 votes

95 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

why does it have to be halladay?

by TheHuntforRedOctober on Aug 13, 2010 1:45 PM EDT reply actions

then who?

raygu
www.faketeams.com
www.sbnation.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Aug 13, 2010 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions

I think josh johnson or adam wainwright are also up there

and wouldn’t be surprised to see either picked first.

by kswissreject on Aug 13, 2010 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions

I'd be surprised

not saying it won’t happen in some drafts, but Halladay and Lee are the top two in my opinion. Both JJ and Wainwright have had two solid years in a row.

raygu
www.faketeams.com
www.sbnation.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Aug 13, 2010 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions

Halladay is a fine choice

as number 1. However, I’m simply saying that I might choose neither and go with Wainwright or Johnson. Maybe even go with King Felix. I don’t think there is any gap between Halladay-Johnson-Wainwright going forward.

by TheHuntforRedOctober on Aug 13, 2010 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions

I love Cliff Lee

He is the best pitcher in baseball as far as real live baseball is concerned. He walks virtually no one as the chart demonstrates. He recently snapped a streak of 10 straight starts of at least 8 innings pitched and his shortest outing is 6.1. The guy is a stud. So if I am a professional gm, he is the top pitcher I target, hands down. As far as fantasy is concerned, it changes slightly. He needs to fall into a great situation, such as the rising Rangers franchise, or the Yankees perhaps, in order to trump the value that Halladay and Wainwright have due to the potential win totals. I personally play in a league that counts Quality Starts as opposed to Wins so Cliff Lee is actually the top pitcher by average. But for those who use that nasty, unforgiving stat of wins, Halladay and Wainwright may have more value.

by BFFL on Aug 14, 2010 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions

Good Point

Wins are stupid. I too play in a QS league. Wainwright hasn’t just put up two “solid” seasons in a row, he has been a legitimate CY candidate in both. Plus his fantasy totals are right in line with what you’d expect from a top tier guy. Cliff Lee is actually below him in my opinion, and it’s a coin flip between halladay and wainwright. I was just commenting that Cliff Lee or Halladay is a little shortsighted since there are going to be three or four guys who can be argued into the number 1 spot.

by TheHuntforRedOctober on Aug 15, 2010 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions