Fantasy Baseball: Trade Deadline Trade Offer

by Ray Guilfoyle on Aug 10, 2010 10:01 AM EDT in Baseball

Tuesday is the trade deadline in my big money 5 x 5 league and I received the following offer last evening:

I give up: Tim Hudson and Carlos Lee

I currently sit in 5th place, one point out of 4th place, and 5 points out of 3rd place. I am 5 HRs from 3 points in HRs, 3 RBIs from another point in RBIs, and 11 runs from another point in runs.

On the pitching side, I am 6 wins ahead of the guy behind me (I have 9 starters now), and am 11 strikeouts ahead of the guy behind me.

Checking out fangraphs, Hudson has an FIP of 4.01 and an 84% LOB%, while Francis has an FIP of 3.49 and a LOB% OF 64%. Is it possible both are due to regress to the mean, where Francis pitches to his FIP of 3.49 and Hudson finally implodes and pitches to his 4.01 FIP? Their strand rates tell you they should, no?

Can Matt Kemp outperform Carlos Lee going forward? Silly question on paper, I know, but looking at their stats tell a different story. Kemp has gone 18-62-61-16-.258-.315-.449, while Lee has gone 14-48-56-2-.248-.296-.403.

I am leaning toward pulling the trigger, but what do Fake Teamers think?

Poll

Should I pul the trigger on this offer?

yes

76 votes

no

14 votes

90 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

Tough one

I would probably do it based on the expected pitcher regression from both Hudson and Francis (regressing to the mean in both directions).

HOWEVER, it’s worth noting that while FIP suggest Francis has been unlucky, it could also be that he plays in Coors Field and behind a so-so defense. FIP normalizes things that may not actually normalize in real life over the next 8 weeks.

That said, Hudson’s scary low .235 BABIP and Francis’s slightly high .319 mark are enough for me to bet on the upcoming small sample regression from both guys.

The hitters are kinda washes here. Kemp is a much better player at this stage of his career, but he’s having a truly AWFUL season, and there aren’t many signs he’s going to magically turn it around overnight.

by jackweiland on Aug 10, 2010 10:15 AM EDT reply actions

Accepted the offer

Am I selling high on Hudson and buying low on Kemp and Francis? Time will tell.

raygu
www.faketeams.com
www.sbnation.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Aug 10, 2010 12:43 PM EDT reply actions

I think you are doing something in the middle

by TheHuntforRedOctober on Aug 10, 2010 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions

well you already did but i would've said no

Lee is turning it around and I only see kemp helping you with stolen bases. I think Hudson is better than Francis even with a regression. But I wish you luck. I consider the Dodgers my second favorite team so I hope Kemp can turn it on for the stretch run.

by AlohaHalofan on Aug 10, 2010 9:57 PM EDT via mobile reply actions