Fantasy Baseball: Midseason Starting Pitcher Rankings

by Seth Walder on Jul 19, 2010 9:33 PM EDT

After much stat crunching, a lot of thinking and a decent amount of math, the starting pitcher rankings are finished. The four of us ranked what we believed to be our top 70 pitchers, though 80 pitchers were ranked overall.

I felt that if you looked at the rankings as a whole, there were effectively three broad tiers of players. Inside the tiers we tended to disagree, but at the macro level I got the sense that there was a certain amount of consensus. I think as you go through the individual rankings you may notice the same thing.

As always I will point out that these rankings reflect what we believe these players will do from this point onward. Actually, since each of us actually created our own rankings over a week ago, you ought to take them as "from a week ago onward." In the same vein, keep in mind that the rankings were done before a number of injuries, such as the ones to Roy Oswalt, Andy Pettitte and A.J. Burnett and the rankings do not reflect the players' status post-injury.

Because of the scale of the chart, I will not put it on the front page, just click on the jump to find it.

Rank	Player	Ray	Jason	Brian	Seth	Average
1	Roy Halladay	2	1	2	1	1.5
2	Adam Wainwright	3	3	4	2	2.75
3	Josh Johnson	1	4	3	4	3
4	Tim Lincecum	5	2	6	5	4.5
T-5	Cliff Lee	4	5	9	3	5.25
T-5	Ubaldo Jimenez	8	6	1	6	5.25
7	Felix Hernandez	10	7	5	8	7.5
8	Jon Lester	11	8	7	7	8.25
9	C.C. Sabathia	9	9	10	9	9.25
10	David Price	6	12	11	13	10.5
11	Jered Weaver	12	10	12	10	11
12	Justin Verlander	13	11	8	14	11.5
13	Clayton Kershaw	7	20	13	18	14.5
14	Yovani Gallardo	23	14	16	20	18.25
15	Chris Carpenter	32	13	17	12	18.5
16	Dan Haren	29	16	18	15	19.5
17	Roy Oswalt	17	23	15	16	17.75
18	Zack Greinke	24	17	27	17	21.25
19	Tommy Hanson	26	15	31	19	22.75
20	Phil Hughes	20	22	14	24	20
T-21	Stephen Strasburg	14	18	29	21	20.5
T-21	Johan Santana	15	19	23	25	20.5
T-23	Francisco Liriano	30	27	25	11	23.25
T-23	Clay Buchholz	16	24	20	33	23.25
25	Matt Cain	19	25	26	26	24
26	Mat Latos	25	21	36	22	26
27	John Danks	37	26	19	23	26.25
28	Andy Pettitte	18	41	24	36	29.75
29	Tim Hudson	28	38	30	37	33.25
30	Matt Garza	34	34	21	47	34
31	Chad Billingsley	42	35	22	38	34.25
32	Colby Lewis	36	33	39	31	34.75
33	Ryan Dempster	43	29	41	29	35.5
34	Trevor Cahill	22	40	28	54	36
T-35	Jeff Niemann	35	30	38	45	37
T-35	Javier Vazquez	27	32	35	46	37
37	Ricky Romero	57	28	37	28	37.5
38	James Shields	33	39	34	48	38.5
T-39	Josh Beckett	41	31	54	40	41.5
T-39	Cole Hamels	60	44	32	30	41.5
41	Jaime Garcia	54	37	49	27	41.75
T-42	Max Scherzer	40	36	52	41	42.25
T-42	Ervin Santana	31	46	40	42	42.25
44	Johnny Cueto	47	47	33	49	44
45	Ricky Nolasco	21	52	62	44	44.75
46	Jonathan Sanchez	52	51	45	39	46.75
47	Hiroki Kuroda	42	48	66	34	47.5
48	Gavin Floyd	45	45	51	53	48.5
49	Shaun Marcum	44	59	NR	32	51.5
T-50	Carl Pavano	62	56	44	50	53
T-50	Ted Lilly	61	61	55	35	53
T-50	Brett Anderson	49	49	NR	43	53
T-50	Jair Jurrjens	48	54	42	68	53
54	C.J. Wilson	63	43	56	57	54.75
55	Edinson Volquez	47	58	58	59	55.5
56	Wandy Rodriguez	NR	42	48	64	56.25
57	Clayton Richard	64	55	43	66	57
58	Bronson Arroyo	39	66	53	NR	57.25
59	Scott Baker	NR	63	46	51	57.75
60	Mike Pelfrey	50	57	69	56	58
61	John Lackey	NR	50	47	NR	59.75
62	Jason Hammel	55	62	70	58	61.25
63	Jorge De La Rosa	58	68	59	61	61.5
64	Carlos Silva	NR	65	60	55	62.75
65	Joel Pineiro	51	NR	61	NR	63.5
T-66	Kris Medlen	67	64	64	62	64.25
T-66	A.J. Burnett	NR	NR	63	52	64.25
68	Barry Zito	66	NR	50	NR	64.5
T-69	Brandon Morrow	NR	53	NR	NR	66.5
T-69	Vicente Padilla	53	NR	NR	NR	66.5
71	Gio Gonzalez	NR	60	65	NR	66.75
72	Edwin Jackson	69	NR	57	NR	67
T-73	Ian Kennedy	59	NR	NR	NR	68
T-73	Fausto Carmona	65	NR	NR	65	68
75	Anibal Sanchez	NR	NR	NR	60	68.25
76	Madison Bumgarner	68	67	68	NR	68.5
77	Jonathan Niese	NR	NR	NR	63	69
78	Mike Leake	70	70	67	70	69.25
T-79	Brian Matusz	NR	NR	NR	67	70
T-79	Brett Myers	NR	69	NR	69	70

Not bad, right?

My three "general" tiers would be 1-27 (Halladay to Danks), 28-49 (Pettitte to Marcum), 50-80 (Pavano to Myers). Obviously they can be broken down more than that, and while there was a little crossover, I think those tiers are reasonably accurate reflection of the rankings.

A couple of names that stuck out to me as players that we were split on: Clay Buchholz, Jaime Garcia, Matt Garza, Ricky Nolasco, Shaun Marcum and John Lackey. I'll be interested to see what the commenters have to say about those.

As always, feel free to address each of us individually about some of decisions--such is the beauty of rankings!

I would like to add that the majority of the math was done in bed with a semi-questionable calculator. Apologies in advance if there are any mathematical errors.

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Comments

Seth

thanks for doing ALL of the rankings. The fact that you calculated all of these using a calculator is amazing.

Looking at my rankings, I was right about Kershaw….I am higher than others on him….not a shock. But, what was I thinking about Hamels at 60?

raygu
www.faketeams.com
www.sbnation.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Jul 19, 2010 10:44 PM EDT reply actions

Lackey

Is a thankless sort to rank this year.

Either you’re right to be down on him, and he’s not even a 60 (I myself dropped him in my 12 teamer and most teams have 6-9 SP)

He rebounds a bit, and he clears 60 easily.

Thankless sort to rank. The upshot is that I think you guys collectively nailed it. It’s not so low that we all should automatically give up on him (as I did), but it recalls his upside, too.

by Johnny Tuttle on Jul 20, 2010 10:34 AM EDT reply actions

Latos, Strasburg, Hughes

It looks like I was a lot lower on Latos and Strasburg than the others – I don’t like the probability of inning caps (forcing guys to miss a turn in the rotation or go on the DL to limit their innings will really mess with the rhythm)…

For some reason I didn’t feel the same about Hughes when ranking the pitchers. I think the Yankees saw (at least I hope they saw) how it really messed with Joba’s flow and he never could get in a groove – I am sure there is plenty to debate whether Joba actually has the ability to get in a groove – but regardless, baseball players are creatures of habit, and if your schedule gets tinkered with it can throw just about anyone off…

I expect the Yankees not to limit Hughes as much as Latos and Strasburg will be for the rest of the season.

by Bluethunder33 on Jul 20, 2010 1:52 PM EDT reply actions

Kershaw??

How does Ray rank Kershaw ahead of the likes of Ubaldo, CC, King Felix, Lester and Hughes is beyond me??? Must be the Dodger Blue running….

by robg62 on Jul 20, 2010 3:35 PM EDT reply actions

because

he had one of the best second halves in 2009 and before his last start, he had a 48-8 K/BB rate in his last 5-6 starts.

raygu
www.faketeams.com
www.sbnation.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Jul 20, 2010 11:37 PM EDT up reply actions

Then where is Johan?

If your reason for rating Kershaw is due to his second half in 2009, then why did you not grade Johan Santana as high or higher than Kershaw? Santana is notorious for having excellent second halfs. And he has more of a track record than Kershaw.

MIke Leake and Jaime Garcia ranked behind Kershaw?

by RickHoneycutt on Jul 21, 2010 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions

Johan

is a different case. I didn’t rank Kershaw that high, but Johan even admitted he has been pitching hurt. I just don’t think you can count on his typically terrific second half.

As far as Leake/Garcia behind Kershaw—that seems obvious. Leake is having control issues and Garcia is good…but not that good.

by Seth Walder on Jul 21, 2010 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions

RE: Johan

Rick Honeycutt knows his stuff!

Santana (8-5) allowed one run and five hits, struck out four and walked one. The left-hander has allowed no more than one run while pitching at least seven innings in any of his last five starts.

by RickHoneycutt on Jul 24, 2010 8:39 AM EDT reply actions