Fantasy Baseball: Is Buster Posey A Top 5 Catcher In 2011?

by Ray Guilfoyle on Jul 11, 2010 2:00 PM EDT in Baseball

I was trading emails with a fellow UBA owner last night discussing Buster Posey and his recent power surge. I opined that I think Posey could be the top catcher in NL-only leagues in 2011, breaking Brian McCann's stranglehold at that spot over the last few years.

Here are their 2010 stats:

McCann-10 HRs, 37 RBIs, .267-.382-.453 in 247 ABs

Posey-7 HRs, 23 RBIs, .351-.386-.560 in 134 ABs

Of course, we all know Posey won't hit .350 all year, but he could hit .300, and he is on pace to hit 15 HRs and and drive in close to 50. Posey will be the Giants starting catcher for the rest of the season, and he hit cleanup last night, so he should plenty more RBI opportunities the rest of the year with Andres Torres and Freddy Sanchez getting on base in front of him. (Has anyone else noticed that Pablo Sandoval has been hitting 7th lately??).

I own Posey in one of my NL-only keeper leagues and am very happy to have him at $5 next season. We recently ranked all catchers for the rest of the season here, and Posey was ranked 9th overall, but these rankings were completed before Posey's recent hot streak.

Victor Martinez and Joe Mauer are obvious choices to be picked ahead of Posey next season, and possibly Indians catcher Carlos Santana, but I am not sure any other catcher will be an obvious pick ahead of Posey in 2011.

Poll

Is Buster Posey a top 5 catcher in 2011?

Yes, he can go 20-80 in 2011.

151 votes

No, he will come down to earth after the All Star break.

29 votes

180 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

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I think the main question is what happens to the OBP when the BA starts to level out. At this point it would appear a drop to a .300 BA would reduce the OBP to around .330. I don’t think that puts him in as a top 5 catcher. Maybe I could be wrong on that though. A good sign is Buster has started to take some walks- he took one today and has more thus far in July than he had in all of June.

Minorleaguesplits show that Buster had 172 ab’s this season at Fresno. His other hitting stats showed 28 bb’s, 30 k’s, 13 doubles, 6 hr’s. And the ability to completely destroy LHP although very impressive vs. RHP as well.

At the MLB level in fewer at bats we see 137 ab’s, 8 bb’s, 16 k’s, 5 doubles, 7 hr’s. And there remains the success vs LHP, as well as RHP.

I think it is a little disturbing that there are fewer walks and k’s at the MLB level. I think it would be a bit of a stretch to anoint Buster a .300 MLB hitter at this point. I am thinking more .270ish with a .335 OBP that could go up some.

by acr on Jul 11, 2010 6:54 PM EDT reply actions

Why is fewer walks and K's at MLB level disturbing?

Hitters who can keep their K% under 15% have a much greater chance of batting .300.

And when you are hitting for a high average while batting lower in the order, I would prefer he swing away as long as he’s making contact, and he was.

And since he was bumped up to the middle of the lineup, he has walked more, albeit SSS, but still. And as you noted, since July began, he has had 5 walks in 40 AB/47 PA, and only 4 strikeouts, vs. 3 walks in 97 AB/102 PA and 12 strikeouts previously. So perhaps he’s learning and adjusting.

And, in any case, I prefer what he’s doing to what Weiters has been doing. What he’s been doing is disturbing. What Posey has done is maybe puzzling, even troubling, but not yet disturbing.

Adoptive parental unit of Ehire Adrianza.
Godfather of Travis Ishikawa.

"Woo hoo!" - Tim "The Kid" Lincecum
"The objective is that World Series ring" - The Kid
"I think my role here has changed a little bit. I'm counted on a little more." - Posey after hitting 12-24 with 4 homers after Molina trade

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Jul 13, 2010 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions