Fantasy Baseball: Ricky Nolasco's 2010 Struggles
by Seth Walder on Jun 8, 2010 2:19 PM EDT
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PrintRicky Nolasco used to be the lovebird of all fantasy analysts. He had had the perfect storm of bad luck in 2009 and because of that nearly everyone in the industry projected him for a major improvement in 2010. Despite posting an ERA over 5 in 2009, Nolasco went in the same group as Wandy Rodriguez, Ubaldo Jimenez and Cole Hamels in drafts.
Now, things are not looking good. Nolasco’s fantasy numbers are better than last season (5-4, 4.60 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 54 Ks) but aren’t exactly what everyone expected. And then it gets worse. Because every area where Nolasco was unfortunate last year has regressed to the mean, or past the mean, and he hasn’t really improved to justify these changes.
Nolasco’s LOB% went up from a low 61.0 percent to 70.7. His BABIP is down from .336 to .310. HR/FB decreased from 11.0% to 10.5. LD% down from 21.8% to 16.5%. Everywhere is back to normal or better than normal.
And to make matters worse, Nolasco’s strikeouts are down. Way down. His K/9 has gone from 9.49 to 6.54, and that’s a pretty big jump.
It looks like Nolasco is quite simply pitching worse. His opponents’ contact percentage against pitches outside the zone is at 70.1%, up from 55.1% in 2009.
His FIP and xFIP suggest improvement may come, but not a lot.
So where exactly is Ricky Nolasco? Would I rather have him or Mike Pelfrey?
Give me the Met please.
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O-contact%
Does the dramatic increase in out of the zone contact % this year really explain that he is pitching worse? Or does it explain some measure of luck? If hitters were not making contact on these out of the zone pitches than his swinging strike % would be up near 10 like last year and his Ks would be closer to 9 than 6 per nine. Does it mean that his stuff that is not hitting the zone just isn’t as good (he’s also in the zone more, 54 to 51%, than last year)? Or that for some reason his out of zone stuff isn’t far enough out to not allow for good contact or tricky enough to get swings and misses?
Nolasco is an enigma!
Tough one
I’d go Nolasco. His K rate is similar to Pelfrey thus far, but Nolasco has shown he can be higher than what he is now.
It’s hard for me to be comfortable with either guy, but it sounds like a coin flip.
Pelfrey is having his best season thus far, while Nolasco has shown he can do more. Guys with career highs and lows, especially with pitching, worry me, lol.
me
I am looking to deal Nolasco in one league, but am wondering if his 2010 start to the season is similar to his 2009 start to the season. He pitched alot better in June-September last year….we’ll see what June brings.
I offered him for Shane Victorino.
raygu
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