Fantasy Baseball: Starting Pitchers To Buy On The Cheap??

by Ray Guilfoyle on May 5, 2010 12:55 PM EDT in Baseball

I wanted to get this out last weekend, but here you go. Here is a list of pitchers who should show improvement in their ERA/WHIP going forward based on their xFIP. If you need a refresher, I wrote about xFIP here.

These stats are through April 30th courtesy of Fangraphs:

Name	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	xFIP	ERA - xFIP
Edwin Jackson	4.73	2.78	1.70	1.39	1.76	0.362	57.70%	8.07	4.59	3.48
Aaron Harang	7.22	1.87	3.86	1.87	1.51	0.353	61.10%	6.68	3.84	2.84
Gavin Floyd	6.89	3.86	1.79	0.83	1.81	0.385	58.40%	6.89	4.31	2.58
Justin Masterson	10.46	4.05	2.58	1.35	1.80	0.42	65.30%	5.40	3.11	2.29
Joel Pineiro	4.85	1.52	3.20	1.21	1.52	0.347	64.40%	5.76	3.91	1.85
Josh Beckett	6.56	3.28	2.00	1.01	1.57	0.343	61.10%	6.31	4.46	1.85
Max Scherzer	5.91	3.09	1.91	1.69	1.56	0.323	58.30%	6.47	4.80	1.67
Joe Saunders	3.82	4.11	0.93	2.05	1.79	0.316	64.90%	7.04	5.40	1.64
Brandon Morrow	10.61	5.14	2.06	0.96	1.46	0.324	67.00%	5.46	3.83	1.63
Ben Sheets	4.75	4.75	1.00	1.78	1.91	0.341	66.50%	7.12	5.64	1.48
Homer Bailey	8.58	4.13	2.08	1.27	1.76	0.384	69.00%	6.04	4.60	1.44
Bronson Arroyo	6.38	3.44	1.86	0.98	1.36	0.293	58.20%	6.14	4.73	1.41
Tim Wakefield	5.60	2.63	2.13	1.65	1.57	0.333	62.20%	6.59	5.23	1.36
Jake Peavy	7.82	5.30	1.48	1.01	1.60	0.315	64.30%	6.31	5.02	1.29
Jamie Moyer	4.50	1.50	3.00	2.10	1.33	0.287	66.30%	5.70	4.44	1.26
Dan Haren	9.23	2.25	4.10	1.35	1.30	0.334	71.10%	4.50	3.33	1.17
Scott Baker	6.62	2.55	2.60	1.02	1.50	0.346	67.50%	5.35	4.21	1.14
Cole Hamels	10.24	2.79	3.67	1.63	1.42	0.356	77.90%	4.42	3.31	1.11
Zach Duke	4.50	4.24	1.06	1.32	1.71	0.319	67.90%	6.09	5.00	1.09
Jake Westbrook	6.03	4.88	1.24	1.15	1.69	0.322	70.00%	5.74	4.72	1.02

As you can see, most of these pitchers have experienced abnormally high BABIP and extremely low LOB% for the first month of the season, and could provide value going forward should you get them on the cheap.

Since the beginning of May, Edwin Jackson, Ben Sheets and Max Scherzer have not fared too well, but may be available on the waiver wire in mixed leagues. Cole Hamels and Jake Peavy both pitched very well in their first May starts.

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