Fantasy Baseball: Hitters To Sell High???

by Ray Guilfoyle on May 11, 2010 12:59 PM EDT in Baseball

DETROIT - MAY 2: Austin Jackson #14 of the Detroit Tigers singles to center field in the sixth inning scoring Alex Avila (not in photo) against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim during the game on May 2, 2010 at Comerica Park in Detroit, Michigan. The Tigers defeated the Angels 5-1. (Photo by Leon Halip/Getty Images)

Yesterday, I posted an article discussing hitters who you should target in trades or free agent pickups as their 2010 BABIP was uncharacteristically low. Today, I give you hitters who's BABIP is higher than one would expect to last for the entire season.

Here's are the top 20 hitters in MLB based on their BABIP through Monday May 10th:

Name	BB%	K%	BB/K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP
Austin Jackson	7.50%	28.70%	0.280	0.360	0.408	0.493	0.901	0.132	0.500
Carlos Ruiz	20.20%	19.50%	1.310	0.354	0.481	0.488	0.969	0.134	0.415
Jayson Werth	12.10%	26.80%	0.530	0.348	0.424	0.688	1.112	0.339	0.410
Franklin Gutierrez	11.20%	25.40%	0.500	0.322	0.396	0.475	0.870	0.153	0.407
Colby Rasmus	17.40%	34.80%	0.630	0.304	0.430	0.598	1.028	0.293	0.400
Shin-Soo Choo	16.20%	26.90%	0.720	0.315	0.431	0.481	0.912	0.167	0.400
Miguel Cabrera	13.40%	13.90%	1.120	0.377	0.465	0.648	1.112	0.270	0.398
David Freese	10.00%	23.30%	0.500	0.320	0.393	0.476	0.869	0.155	0.390
Chase Headley	7.40%	20.30%	0.400	0.325	0.370	0.423	0.793	0.098	0.388
Andre Ethier	8.90%	12.50%	0.790	0.393	0.452	0.732	1.184	0.339	0.386
Justin Morneau	19.90%	22.00%	1.130	0.339	0.471	0.624	1.094	0.284	0.385
Ryan Theriot	4.60%	14.10%	0.350	0.331	0.360	0.373	0.733	0.042	0.382
Ryan Braun	12.10%	14.10%	1.000	0.359	0.443	0.594	1.037	0.234	0.381
Adrian Beltre	5.50%	18.30%	0.320	0.325	0.359	0.450	0.809	0.125	0.381
Alfonso Soriano	8.00%	22.30%	0.390	0.340	0.389	0.660	1.050	0.320	0.378
Elvis Andrus	16.00%	21.20%	0.950	0.298	0.416	0.346	0.762	0.048	0.378
Evan Longoria	10.70%	24.40%	0.500	0.325	0.393	0.585	0.978	0.260	0.375
Andrew McCutchen	7.40%	18.70%	0.430	0.325	0.381	0.504	0.885	0.179	0.375
Brett Gardner	11.60%	12.50%	1.080	0.333	0.418	0.406	0.824	0.073	0.373
Carlos Gonzalez	3.40%	20.90%	0.170	0.318	0.336	0.482	0.818	0.164	0.372

The guys that stand out for me are Austin Jackson, Andre Ethier, Alfonso Soriano and Jayson Werth. A-Jack is a rookie, and no one should expect his BABIP to be around .500 at the end of the season. His BA will drop as a result. Ethier is known for his hot streaks and cold streaks, and he is very hot right now, leading the NL in hitting, HRs and RBI. To think that I traded him in the UBA league offseason makes me sick.

The same goes for Alfonso Soriano. He won't hit .340 all season. His career BABIP is .307, so some of those balls in play will become outs in the near future. Werth's career BABIP is 0.331, and it is sitting at .410 right now, so I don't see him hitting .348 all season. Werth is in his walk year, so I could see him hitting better than his career .269 BA this season, especially in the Phillies lineup.

Another guys who sticks out for me is Colby Rasmus. I didn't realize how often he was striking out, but the BB% is very good. If he can cut down on the K's, he could have a very good season in 2010.

Poll

Can Andre Ethier go 40-120 in 2010?

Yes-he has improved every year since he made it to the bigs.

67 votes

No, not hitting in those NL West ballparks.

52 votes

119 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

I'll come right out and say I'm a Dodgers fan

and a big fan of Andre Ethier. I don’t know if I see Ethier hitting 40 homeruns this year (even though I clicked “Yes” on the poll), but I definitely think he’ll be somewhere between 35-40.

The big reason why I don’t think this is a fluke is because of his huge improvement against LHP this season. A quick look at his splits from 2009:

vs. RHP: .302/.390/.571
vs. LHP: .194/.283/.345

Although the sample size is small, his 2010 splits show a huge improvement:

vs. RHP: .400/.455/.800
vs. LHP: .375/.444/.563

I don’t think he’ll continue to hit .390+ for the rest of the season, but I think this improvement he’s shown so far is legit and he’ll keep up solid numbers for the rest of the year.

by Jesse S. on May 12, 2010 2:56 AM EDT reply actions