Fantasy Baseball: Keeper League Strategy

by Ray Guilfoyle on Mar 5, 2010 9:00 AM EST in Baseball

Non-keeper, or one year, fantasy baseball leagues have become the dominant fantasy/roto leagues across the internet, but I play in two NL-only auction keeper leagues. One, I just learned today, I am going into my 14th season in the league. I've won the league three of the last four years with different strategies.

The other is the UBA League. Several, maybe all, of the members of the league read Fake Teams on a regular basis. I am not sure if anyone from either of my other leagues know I write for Fake Teams, but I will probably let them know at this year's drafts.

I joined the UBA league after inquiring with the former manager of Fake Teams, Eric Hinz, over at his old blog called Fantasy Alpha four years ago. I was looking for another league to join, and I wanted to join a league where owners drafted minor leaguers. He invited me to join the UBA league, where I took over an existing team, and proceeded to trade all of my keepers to rebuild the team. I have since placed third in each my three years in the UBA league, but last year was the killer for me. I dealt a $5 S2 Andrew McCutchen, a $5 S2 Jason Heyward and a $20 L1 Matt Kemp-my three best keepers-in a play to win the league and I didn't. Frustrated with the 3rd place finish, I have just completed my offseason firesale of all of my keepers.

The keepers that I traded are: $23 S1 Andre Ethier, $15 L1 Clayton Kershaw, $22 S1 Huston Street, $10 S0 Ricky Nolasco, $1 S1 Wandy Rodriguez, and $10 S1 Casey McGehee. In return I have stockpiled minor league draft picks, along with a $5 Kyle Blanks, a $10 S1 Mat Latos, $5 S2 Michael Stanton, $5 S2 Jose Tabata, $5 S2 Andrew Lambo, $5 S2 Domonic Brown, $5 S2 Yonder Alonso, and a $10 S1 Brandon Allen. The minor league draft picks received in these deals are: #2, #3, #7, #13, #15 and #19.

In this rebuilding effort, I have left myself with $242 on the table on draft day, with 5 keepers totalling $18 in salary. As you can see, I have completely destroyed my roster to play for 2011, Granted, if I draft well enough, I could land in the money this year, but I am not counting on it. Come draft day, I will focus on players I can deal when it comes time to bail. The guys I will target will be obvious on draft day, as there are only so many quality studs available in this keeper league.

A keeper league owner's strategy should be to end the season in the money every year, but sometimes you need to step back and decide the best plan is to rebuild. Should my plan work, I should be back in the money in 2011, and hopefully for a few years after that. The plan is to win the league within the next 2-3 years. I will need a few of the guys I traded for, and a few of the draft picks to blossom early for the strategy to come to fruition, and I can't make many mistakes with my minor league draft picks. That makes my 2010 draft so important. I need to draft players other teams will want by the trade deadline, and hopefully be lucky enough to draft some guys I will decide to keep.

This strategy isn't for everyone, but I like to give new strategies the old college try. Its what makes roto/fantasy leagues so interesting. I like to zig when others zag.

Poll

Is this a strategy you would employ in a keeper league?

Yes

24 votes

No

33 votes

57 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

Agree

In theory, it is exactly right thing to do. In reality, you assume the league exists int wo years.

In UBA, most of us are past the fantasy league injury nexus – families build, careers established – so it may not be as much of a risk and a league full of 20-somethings.

by faketeams on Mar 5, 2010 9:46 AM EST reply actions

Can't say I'd have let go of CK, but ...

I picked up a really bad team a year ago. the previous owner had a fire sale and traded away all of my power hitters/pitchers, including in the minors. After I realized there was no hope of redeeming this team, I went to work to trade away all the peices I had, or could, for up and comers, and draft picks. In the end I amassed 4 1st round picks, and 4 2nd round picks. I expect to be able to draft many more Right now players as well as more young talent this spring. That’ll put my team at just below average for this year.

If I follow the same strategy again this season, I forsee next year being even brighter. The key I think is to trade away anyone 28 and older, in favor of younger prospects, and hold on dearly to any prospect/starter<27.

That’s why I think you’re right to think you can rebuild, but I think it’s more likely to take you another year. But you never know. Prospecting is always half gamble – half science. Maybe with luck you can shave a year off?

by joshzd1 on Mar 5, 2010 2:14 PM EST reply actions

Pujols

In your situation, you could probably land Pujols for the low $50s and use him as the foundation of your 2011 team.

by faketeams on Mar 5, 2010 4:07 PM EST reply actions

Pujols

he will be a target for sure.

raygu
www.faketeams.com
www.sbnation.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Mar 5, 2010 4:08 PM EST up reply actions

The Unlimited Upside Problem

I don’t know if you saw the article on the Sports Illustrated site that followed what happened to Baseball America’s Top 10 prospects. http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/sky_andrecheck/02/25/top.prospects/index.html

All these guys are touts as having unlimited upsides. Close to half have average carreers or are busts. That is just the Top 10. Even those who make it often stumble before they make it. I can’t even count how many low ball offers I rejected on Justin Upton last spring.

So where your strategy can fail is that you are going to have accept some bad stats for a while, where the goods ones will be dragged down by the bad ones. Then you have to not trade the good ones before they are good.

by Rad on Mar 6, 2010 12:21 PM EST reply actions

Thats not surpising at all

No spot can be perfect. If you think thats low just go even further down the lists. Once you get out of the top 50-100 prospect your looking at prolly a 1-2% success rate.

The value will always lie in the odds.

"There are no next times when you're competing for big things." - Tom Izzo
Go Spartans

by msufan23 on Mar 6, 2010 3:47 PM EST up reply actions