Fantasy Baseball: What Is The Value Of Julio Borbon?

by Jason Hunt on Mar 2, 2010 8:02 PM EST in Baseball

I saw this line in ESPN's Buster Olney's blog on Monday, and I thought it was interesting.

Julio Borbon is going to be thrown into the fire this year with the Rangers. I heard this from somebody within the Rangers' circle: "Tell your friends who play fantasy baseball that they should take Borbon."

- Buster Olney from his 3/1/10 Blog Post (subscription required)

So this got me thinking about what value Borbon has in a standard league?

In 2009, Borbon posted a .312 batting average, 4 HR, 30 R, 20 RBI, and 19 steals in only 46 games. He has also been penciled in as the starting center fielder, moving Josh Hamilton to LF for the coming season. So what can he do in a full season of playing time?

Fangraphs has two projections for Borbon, one from Bill James and one from CHONE.

Bill James: .308, 7 HR, 85 R, 47 RBI, 42 SB (136 games)
CHONE: .297, 6 HR, 77 R, 47 RBI, 35 SB (142 games)

I think that if Borbon actually ends up getting the amount of playing time that they are both projecting for him, he can easily top 40 stolen bases. His minor league numbers played out to similar levels as the projections, so I think he can definitely meet the rest of the stats as well.

Borbon is currently showing an ADP of 183 on Mock Draft Central, essentially a late round flier. He's not going to give you a lot of homeruns or RBI, but he could very easily fit into the punt-power strategy, and definitely has a lot of upside at that point. I think he can potentially steal over 50 bases if given enough of a green light.

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Comments

It’s one thing for the projection systems to say he’ll probably get less games played, but lets look at his actual situation: if he’s serviceable against left handed pitching then why won’t he play every day? Yes, his UZR was bad in a small sample size, but here’s the scouting report on him from last year on Baseball Time in Arlington:

“On defense, Borbon uses his speed and instincts to flash Gold Glove-level potential in center field. His reads are still a work in progress, but his range is already outstanding and his work ethic all but guarantees that he will be able to maximize his defensive skill set. His arm is slightly below average, but his hand-to-glove transfer is smooth and his throwing mechanics are sound, so I don’t think that his arm will limit his overall ability in center field.” Link .

So, if his defense is above average to really good as it should be he’ll be a great piece for Texas.

Now, he might drop in the order, but this Texas line up is so good I don’t think that will have much effect on his numbers.

by kellemonster on Mar 3, 2010 12:31 AM EST reply actions

Don't just assume the Texas lineup is good.

The Rangers scored 784 runs last year. It’s not like they’re world-beaters at the plate. This team is different from the 2008 team.

Borbon is set to lead-off, and he’ll be setting the table a lot. Andrus (batting 9th) exceeded expectations last year, but his OBP was still just .329. If he does falter at the plate, it is entirely possible that he and Andrus switch places, which would result in fewer plate appearances and even fewer RBI opportunities.

Borbon is going to run a lot and create all kinds of sticky situations for opposing pitchers, so it’s possible that he’ll score quite a few runs. However, I think that’s already reflected in the projections.

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by rlb02a on Mar 3, 2010 11:43 AM EST up reply actions