Who is the Next Number 1 Prospect?
The number one prospects in baseball over the previous 3 years have been Jay Bruce, Matt Wieters, and Jason Heyward. Bruce and Wieters are in the show and are every-day starters (and pretty draftable in fantasy – each for different reasons). Heyward, by all accounts, has a good chance to break camp with the team – and at worst get called up this year for some QPT (Quality Playing Time). These players were tops in their classes almost without question (over time Longoria, Price, and Strasburg may make a strong argument). The question is Who is Next?
Let’s take a quick look at the season prior to each player being tops in their classes and who of the current batch of prospects may be next:
[R/HR/RBI/AVE/OPS]
Jay Bruce 2007 from A+, AA, AAA (133 gms): 87 / 26 / 89 / .319 / .962
Matt Wieters 2008 from A+, AA (130 gms): 89 / 27 / 91 / .355 / 1.053
Jason Heyward 2009 from A+, AA, AAA (99 gms): 69 / 17 / 63 / .323 / .963
Assuming Heyward’s nagging injuries didn’t keep him from missing some time, his counting stats would work out to be approximately 90 / 22 / 83 which is right in line with Bruce and Wieters.
A couple of candidates from the 2010 prospects which will probably still be Minor League eligible for next year: Jesus Montero, Michael Stanton, and Starlin Castro.
Jesus Montero – 20 years old – Huge bat and nice strike zone discipline. He is also a physical specimen which has many scouts and experts questioning if he is really going to be a catcher in the major leagues. In 2009, he compiled a line of 45 / 17 / 70 / .337 / .951 in 92 games split between A+ and AA ball. This looks extremely similar to the line that Heyward put up in roughly the same number of games and if not for a broken finger, Montero may have overtaken him for Baseball America's minor league player of the year. He doesn’t have the wheels that Heyward, Bruce or even Wieters does, but his stick ranks up there with any of the elite bats in the minor leagues.
Michael Stanton – 20 years old – Big Power. By now, everyone has read about Stanton’s huge power and the mass amount of homers he has hit over the last couple of years. In 2009 his stat line looked like this: 76 / 28 / 92 / .255 / .842. Nice work by any standard. Undoubtedly, everyone has also heard about his propensity to strike out. I wouldn’t worry too much about this aspect of his game however – he is constantly described as a tireless worker and recently has shown his understanding that baseball is mostly a mental game when you have the type of tools he does (link). Will he strike out more than Heyward, Montero, Bruce, etc.? Yes. Will he struggle more when he finally makes his MLB entrance? Yes, probably. Will he work to improve and understand that baseball is a thinking man’s game? Yes. I think the intangables and work ethic give Stanton a big edge over other pure power guys. Oh, and his defense has never really been a question so there will be a place for him on the field when he is ready.
Starlin Castro – 19 years old – Complete Package. Speed, plate discipline, and power projection are all there for Castro. Making the case for Castro is a bit different since he will not put of the HR or RBI totals of Stanton or Montero. He will be an on-base machine that will increase his SB totals from last year. His 2009 totals looked like: 56 / 3 / 49 / .299 / .734 with 28 steals. None of these stands out as exceptional but when you consider he was the youngest regular position player in A+ ball last year and moved up to AA by year’s end, it puts it into more perspective. This year, look for Castro to split time between AA and AAA and don’t be surprised to see him get a game or three in with Chicago depending on injuries, etc. at the big club level. His defense is reported as superior and his speed is excellent. If his power develops, he can be very special at a very thin position from a fantasy standpoint. I don’t foresee Hanley territory, but something closer to Jose Reyes with a slight decrease in SB.
So in 2011, who will be most likely to be atop the majority of the prospect lists? My money goes toward Stanton. Montero’s bat is special and from a fantasy perspective would be my pick in a keeper league setting – but, the position uncertainty will hurt his ranking in many circles (we have seen that this year with Neftali Feliz). Starlin will be a top 5 prospect next year baring a wheel going flat. Stanton however is a big bat, with a well defined position, and has the defense and work ethic to make people drool about what is in store for his future. Fantasy-wise, it will be a few years before he won’t hurt your BA, but when it is all said-and-done, Stanton will probably settle into the .260 range, take walks, and hit for a ton of power. Frankly, everyone loves the long ball, and so do I. Front runner for 2011 top prospect –Michael Stanton.
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no love for Martin Perez?
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
Perez
I like Perez – a lot. I will be trying to get him in my keeper league (we have minor league rosters/keepers as well).
If Perez can show more consistency at higher levels, then he will move way up the list because his stuff has been superb thus far. Comps to Johan are lofty and probably unfair to Perez.
In the long run, if he can stay healthy he will be a stud in my opinion – he has the upside to be better than Bumgarner. But what I like about Bumgarner is that he had amazing results for two straight years. If his (Bumgarner’s) velocity loss is not an injury indicator, then he can be special, but I am a little worried. I have read that Perez has a worrisome delivery motion – so for young pitchers, injury is the biggest risk as they gain innings on their arms in trying to build stamina and strength to be a major league quality starting pitcher.
Because of position
and his quality make up both at the dish and behind it I’m going Carlos Santana. I believe Heyward might be the best talent but I’m going catcher over OF’er when the talent is this close. And that Aztec pitcher needs to get a few innings under his belt, that being said he might be #1 this time in 2011.
"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."
true
I think that Santana will not be eligible next year – he should get some time in Cleveland this year.
Strasburg if eligible probably will be at the top…
by Bluethunder33 on Mar 2, 2010 7:17 PM EST up reply actions
Desmond Jennings
No love for Jennings? The Rays have said he won’t be up this year barring exceptional circumstances (read Crawford injury or trade) but he’s obviously going to be ready next year either to take Crawford’s spot if he leaves in free agency, or will help form the best defensive OF in baseball with Crawford and Upton.
All reports indicate he’ll be ready next year to basically be Crawford. Why is he not mentioned?
I like Jennings too – I think if he does get to Crawford level, it most likely wouldn’t be straight out into the spotlight. He has a good a shot as any prospect to make an impact though…
If I were to do a quick write up of 5 instead of the 3 (basically just wanted to keep it short), I would certainly have Jennings next – could I have substituted him for Castro’s spot? Sure. He is one of the best and will be top 5 if eligible next year in my opinion.
by Bluethunder33 on Mar 2, 2010 7:26 PM EST up reply actions
Kelly is one of my favorite minor league guys. He had a really nice showing against Northeastern Univ. yesterday – started the game, threw 10 pitches to record a 1-2-3 inning with 2 K’s. Granted the guys for NU are not necessarily MLB quality bats, but Kelly showed good poise after not throwing for the last 8 months or so.
If he can put in a full year in the minors (A+ / AA), he will be poised to start 2011 in AAA and contribute possibly in the second half of 2011. Could see him as a top 10 guy next year is he is exceptional but he really needs another year of full pitching to build up his arm for the long seasons in the Bronx. 2012 top 10 prospect (if he is still eligible as he may see time next year).
by Bluethunder33 on Mar 4, 2010 1:28 PM EST up reply actions
Kelly isn't seeing the majors in 2011
Intriguing prospect but this year will be his first pitching full-time after also playing in the field lst year. The Red Sox rotation is already backed up — see Clay Buckholz. And the Red Sox organization doesn’t rush pitchers. I think 2013 is more realistic than the second half of 2011.
Tanner Scheppers
I could see a guy like Scheppers (very high ceiling but injury prone) being a top 5 prospect going into the ’11 season.
High-Risk, High-Reward
I think Scheppers has the talent to end up as a top-5, but I think he’d have to put together an amazing season to unseat some of the younger players who are most likely still going to be in the top 5 come the end of the season (Montero, Santana, Perez, Stanton all come to mind as players who would be ahead of him unless they fall completely on their faces this season)
yeah
he’s definetly a sleeper candidate for the top 5, but a name that, like you said, has the talent to be there.
2011 Top Prospect
The top prospect spot is usually assigned to a player who has a shot of debuting that year. If Alvarez isn’t up this year I like him for that top spot. Another player who I think could shoot up is Ryan Westmoreland.
Ackley?
What about Dustin Ackley? A great hitter at a premium position if he sticks at 2b.

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