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Why Drafters Should Wait on Closers


This is a very volatile position, and there is tons of turn over in the closer department from year to year.  I am going to assume that you play in a league where the owners actually have some intelligence, and say that you will not come out of the draft with the perfect team.  Nor will you be able to leave the draft being able to cover every category.  Saves is the area where you can hang back, and wait until after the draft to obtain these stats.  Certain statistics come into the league, and you can gain via the waiver wire, and certain ones do not.  Saves is the category with the most waiver wire depth.  

Only three of the drafted closers last year managed to return a 30% or more profit. (Brian Wilson, Trevor Hoffman, and Heath Bell)  Only eight closers, 29% returned any profit at all.  In all, 20 of the 28 pitchers drafted last year for saves 71% realized a loss on their purchase price.

Star-divide

 For people doing snake drafts this just means that these players underperformed for the round they were normally drafted in.  The following list shows the nine closers who returned less then 50% of their value; this list does not include other who lost their job but returned half their value. (Mike Gonzalez, George Sherrill, Bobby Jenks, Chad Qualls)

2009 Closer Failures:
Capps
Devine
Hanrahan
Lidge
Lindstrom
Marmol
Motte
Chris Perez
BJ Ryan
Wood




2009 New Sources of Saves:
Aardsma (38)
Bailey (26)
Franklin (38)
Frasor (11)
Hawkins (11)
Howell (17)
Johnson (10)
MacDougal (20)
Madson (10)
Nunez (26)
Soriano (27)
Wilson (14)

Now, not paying for saves does not mean you are going to punt the save category entirely.  Most people are going to know their league best.  If there are waiver hawks out there, and you may not be able to grab the next Aardsma and Andrew Bailey, then you can pay a little more for saves on draft day.  However, do not break the bank on an elite closer like Joe Nathan.  I repeat.  Do not break the bank on saves!



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I couldn't agree more

although I did pay $31 for Valverde in teh UBA league last year. He pitched well when healthy.

raygu
www.faketeams.com
www.sbnation.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Mar 1, 2010 1:12 PM EST reply actions  

Completely true...

In ESPN public league drafts (10 teams) you can get guys like Capps, Nunez, and Lidge in the 22nd round and later.

No reason to spend a 6th round pick on Papelbon or K-rod.

by Owner on Mar 1, 2010 1:20 PM EST reply actions  

I hate closers

…. I’m the type to end up with a M.Gonzo /Nunez combination. But having said that ,wouldn’t being a little more aggressive on closers be a nice additional component to that “Dumping Power” stradegy that was presented. Just a thought.

"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."

by fourfingerwoo on Mar 1, 2010 7:37 PM EST reply actions  

I agree

you have to win, or place high in all the pitching categories in the Dump Power strategy.

raygu
www.faketeams.com
www.sbnation.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Mar 1, 2010 9:42 PM EST reply actions  

I like waiting for closers just as much as the next guy

but, one idea I’ve been toying with

is taking a closer earlier (like somewhere in rounds 6-10), mainly due me oftentimes not really liking any of the names available and having one round where I’m stuck between overdrafting guys I like who seem like they’d go later or taking some veteran or flawed (think Carlos Pena) guy that I’m not too enthused about.

And despite their volatility and how many quality ones you can get later, at the end of the day you still need them – also, closers are kind of like currency for trades…

Also last year I drafted Chris Davis when I didn’t know who to draft and that sucked.

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Mar 2, 2010 12:44 AM EST reply actions  

I will say though

that it looks like there’s a good crop of pitchers that make sense in the middle rounds this season…

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Mar 2, 2010 1:00 AM EST up reply actions  

a bunch of good mid tier arms are in the mix this year

I topped my staff with, Kershaw/Jimenez/Cain then held out till late rounds and landed a nice crop of mid tier starters I really like

"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."

by fourfingerwoo on Mar 2, 2010 9:54 PM EST up reply actions  

that's a nice top 3

4finger…..

raygu
www.faketeams.com
www.sbnation.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Mar 2, 2010 9:59 PM EST up reply actions  

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