Fantasy Bust: Florida Marlins Outfielder Chris Coghlan

by Ray Guilfoyle on Feb 7, 2010 12:00 PM EST in Baseball

After shoveling some snow and downing a few beers with the neighbors yesterday, I sat down to read Ron Shandler's 2010 Baseball Forecaster. I recommend this book as it really is the bible for fantasy owners. So, I am reading through the comments for each player in alphabetical order, and I come to Chris Coghlan, the NL Rookie of the Year in 2009.

A friend and I have argued about how the prospect experts at Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus, among others, rank their prospects. He thinks that it is their job to find guys like Coghlan and rank him accordingly. I disagree. My argument is that ranking prospects is like picking stocks.....it ain't easy. He feels that the experts should have had Coghlan ranked higher in 2009 before he won the rookie of the year. I asked him what Todd Hollandsworth has been up to since he won the Rookie of the Year for the Dodgers back in 1996. I argue that the experts rank the prospects based on their ceiling, and not all prospects reach their ceiling.

We agree to disagree.

Anyway, Chris Coghlan did win the NL ROY in 2009, but after looking at his stats and reading Shandler's comments in his book, I am not sure if Coghlan can repeat his 2009 season. For the season Coghlan hit 9-47-8-.321-.390-.460 in 504 at bats with a 77/53 K/BB ratio.

Shandler doesn't think he can repeat his 2009 season. Here are his comments:

9-47-.321 in 504 AB at FLA. Unreal 2H fueled H% unlike any in his past screams regression. Solid-not-special skill set , would play better as a 2B or even 3B-his college and minor league positions.

In the second half of 2009, Coghlan hit .359-.405-.520-.925 with an 87% contact rate and a 40% Hit rate. His xBA was .296 for the second half, which is more representative of the kind of hitter Coghlan is. With all that said, Shandler predicts him to hit 13-64-10-.292-.362-.450 in 2010. Those are solid numbers for a second baseman, but not for a third baseman or outfielder.

Fantasy owners should expect some regression in Coghlan's numbers in 2010, and draft him accordingly. If the Marlins should trade second baseman Dan Uggla, and move Coghlan to second, his value will increase for sure.

Poll

Will Chris Coghlan be over-valued in 2010 fantasy drafts?

Yes, most ROY winners are

88 votes

No, he is a sub-par outfielder for fantasy purposes

42 votes

130 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

amazing...

…so you guys are going out on a limb and saying Coghlan may regress from his .321 clip of 2009? His bb’s are a concern. And yes, I agree that he will regress. Hell he had a pretty remarkable August/September. Otherwise 2009 was a boring year for Coghlan. But besides the bb concern I notice the nice number of doubles and he hit everyday at the top of the lineup. So as long as he can remain in the .290/.350 range he’ll be scoring a lot of runs which will come in handy in some formats. Also, although never a great base stealer, there is also a history of some sb’s. I could see a .290/.350 year from Coghlan with 35+ doubles, maybe 15 homers, 65 rbi’s and 100+ runs scored. And if all goes well I could see 18 sb’s or so. That’s assuming he does not regress to hitting in the .250 BA range. He’ll be hitting in the 7 hole if that’s the case and all bets are off at that point. The weird thing about Coghlan is that he hardly ever walks whether hitting well or not. I think that will have to change for him to be consistent. If Uggla gets moved I could see Coghlan being in the top 1/3 of 2b’s just because of the runs scored. But two great months in MLB is not something to bet the farm on. He’ll be over rated, probably. As a left fielder pretty average, even if he has a nice year by his standards. I don’t think he’ll fall off the table. But it’s pretty unreasonable to expect him to keep pace with that .380+ BA and ~1.000 OPS he sported last August/September.

by acr on Feb 7, 2010 5:29 PM EST reply actions