FakeTeams: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
New Blog: Voodoo Five for South Florida Bulls Fans!

Fantasy Baseball: Is Position Scarcity Over-Emphasized By Fantasy Owners?

I was checking out Marc Normandin's fantasy baseball chat over at Baseball Prospectus yesterday afternoon, and posted a few Q & A's from the chat. Both fanposts were instances where I disagreed with Marc, but here is one where I tend to agree with Marc. Here is the Q & A:

nschaef (Connecticut): Do you think it's possible that position scarcity has become so emphasized that picking the best available player is a way to exploit a market ineffciency?

Marc Normandin: Yes. A friend and I have had discussions about this in the past. People are so desperate to pick up players at positions with scarcity that they miss out elsewhere. Sure, there's a lot to choose from at certain positions, but what happens when you base your team off of Jose Reyes because shorstop sucks and then he misses the year? You're not going to get anyone nearly as good without extreme luck or dealing from a strength, weakening yourself again.

I agree that fantasy owner's do over-emphasize position scarcity in fantasy drafts.Here is an example I used in the past, and it involves Matt Kemp. I have discussed Kemp in several "Who Would You Rather Have" posts, with one here, and an NL Top 10 post here.

When drafting, many fantasy owners look to draft players at positions with scarcity, like catcher, shortstop and second base, and often overlook better players. One can say I am biased ranking Matt Kemp so high, but I would draft him ahead of a Hanley Ramirez and Chase Utley, as Kemp, in my opinion, will outperform these two players in 2010.

And Baseball HQ agrees with me. Here is their projections for 2010:

Name                        HR    RBI      RS     SB      BA

Matt Kemp                29     107        98     32     .299

Hanley Ramirez      26       88       111    24     .314

Chase Utley             30     100       111    19     .280

I think Kemp can outperform Shandler's projection, and I am sure there are people who think Hanley can outperform his projection, but as I wrote here, Hanley's power/speed stats have dropped in each of the last 2 years.

I would prefer to draft a hitter who has a very good chance to go 30-30 in 2010, over a hitter at a position of scarcity. If drafting a hitter who plays a positon of scarcity was so valuable, why not draft Hanley Ramirez or Chase Utley at number 1? Why pick Albert Pujols #1 when first base might be the deepest position in fantasy drafts in 2010.

Here is a list of first baseman available in 2010 drafts: Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, Mark Teixeira, Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, Adrian Gonzalez, Kevin Youkilis, Kendry Morales, Carlos Pena, Adam Dunn, and Lance Berkman. That is quite a list of available first baseman, but yet Albert Pujols will be the #1 pick in plenty of league drafts this year.

Back when Mike Piazza was going 30-100 playing catcher for the Dodgers and Mets, there weren't many catchers performing like him. Was he ever a number 1 pick in fantasy drafts? I am sure he was (I think I may have picked him #1 in a NL-only league once, and my team didn't fare too well), but was he the best player available? I would say no.

In mixed leagues, position scarcity exists, but not to the extent it does in NL-only or AL-only leagues. But for me, that is no reason to overlook a better player.

Poll
Is position scarcity over-emphasized by fantasy owners?
Yes, always take the better player
64 votes
No, fantasy owners have to be cognizant of position scarcity going into drafts
98 votes

162 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 5 comments |

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

Great Post

I prefer to think of Ryan Howard when I work against position scarcity. He is a player who is as close to a lock to finsh in the top handful of HR and RBI leaders. Yet his AVG is used to select players who will produce 15 HRs and 30 fewer RBIs.

Position scarcity, as conventional as it is, really comes down to the difference in production of the next best SS versus the next best OF. Or replacement level OF.

by faketeams on Feb 6, 2010 9:47 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

My take would be

draft Hanley or Utley first and then try to nab someone like Grady Sizemore in the second and/or Granderson around the 5th.

I feel like those are two guys who appear poised to produce seasons that resemble Kemp’s while allowing you to fill up scarce positions in either SS or 2b. After the second round there’s really nothing at shortstop until Jeter (who I’m not too high on) in the 4th or 5th and then bigger uncertainty guys 50 picks later with Bartlett or Alexei Ramirez.

Of course this isn’t to say that position scarcity isn’t sometimes overemphasized…

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Feb 6, 2010 11:27 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Position Scarcity is for the BIRDS

If you take Hanley over Pujols and then chirp about “position scarcity” it doesn’t make you an expert, it makes you an idiot. “Stat scarcity” is what you need to concern yourself with. ALWAYS, ALWAYS, ALWAYS, take the BEST guy available, it will ALWAYS even out in the end, even if it “appears” that you are light at certain positions.

In fact, go ahead and act like you are a proponent of position scarcity and support the arguement in your draft, then swoop in and grab the better guys that get passed in favor of “scarcity,” and absolutely OWN your league.

by Killface on Feb 6, 2010 11:33 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

More important is category scarcity

consider this. In 2004, there were 400 more homers and 400 fewer SBs in the majors than there were last year. there has been an increase of about 20% in steals and a decrease of 10% in homers in just the past 5 years. just food for thought

Personally, I think you can identify opportunities in the scarce positions to get some good value in the 2nd and 3rd tiers and take better counting stat producers.

"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."

by Hyatt on Feb 6, 2010 1:51 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

"Stat Scarcity = Category Scarcity"

you nailed it. I wonder when the fantasy community forgot that it’s ALL ABOUT THE STATS, not who has the best guy at a “thin” position.

by Killface on Feb 6, 2010 3:28 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Welcome to the SB Nation blog about Fantasy Sports.
Start posting on FakeTeams »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

Connect_with_facebook

Cbs_fantasy_baseball_promo

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Small
SB Nation Survey + Chance to donate $500 to a charity of this community's choice

Recent FanPosts

Uconn_logo_small
Fantasy Baseball: Draft Strategy-Playing For 2011
Small
Chapman or Hamels?
Small
Help me rate my team
Orioles_small
Will I compete
Atlantabraves_logo_small
THE MANS LEAGUE! NEED ACTIVE OWNERS (ESPN)
Small
Dynasty Advice - Pujols?
Jason_logo_small
Starting Pitcher Rankings
Mlbfp_badge_150x150_small
MLBFP's Top 25 Fantasy Keepers Under 25-Years-Old
Buster-posey_small
Jose Reyes

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

SBNation.com Recent Stories

New York Mets starting pitchers Mike Pelfrey, left, Johan Santana, center, and Oliver Perez watch as teammates take part in drills during spring training baseball Saturday, Feb. 27, 2010, in Port St. Lucie, Fla. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)

SB Nation's 2010 MLB Previews: New York Mets, The High Cost Of Low Expectations

Washington Nationals pitcher Stephen Strasburg throws during the second inning of  a spring training baseball game against the Detroit Tigers Tuesday, March 9, 2010 in Viera, Fla. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

Nationals Send Stephen Strasburg To Double-A Despite Impressive Spring

Seattle Mariners pitcher Cliff Lee speaks during a baseball news conference at Safeco Field in Seattle on Friday, Jan. 22, 2010. Lee was acquired by the Mariners in a trade with the Philadelphia Phillies last December. (AP Photo/John Froschauer) link

Cliff Lee Out With Right Abdominal Strain

More from SBNation.com >


Managers

Img00031_1__small Ray Guilfoyle

Authors

Banksy_pie_small ILLZ

Justin-upton_small Ian, yo

Jason_logo_small jumperjah

Img_5225_small gpellet41

Small ZachAbrams

Small Bluethunder33