Fantasy Baseball: Dumping Power Draft Strategy
Here is another draft strategy that could work in either mixed league or NL/AL only league drafts-dump power. The way to employ this strategy is to focus on stud starting pitchers and speed guys early in the draft. For this strategy to be successful, the fantasy owner must win the pitching categories and place very high in stolen bases, runs scored and batting average.
A fantasy owner who employs this strategy must focus on starting pitchers like Tim Lincecum, Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia and Zack Greinke, who have high K/BB rates. Pitchers who have high K/BB rates usually have low ERA and WHIP, and do very well in the wins category as well. I wrote about this previously here.
The owner must also draft hitters like Michael Bourn, Jacoby Ellsbury, Carl Crawford ,Jimmy Rollins and a healthy Jose Reyes. These are guys who hit for a good BA, steal a ton of bases, and score 90+ runs. Even a guy like Matt Kemp or Ian Kinsler could help, even though they also hit for solid power, as they both can steal 30 bases, and hit for solid BA and score runs.
Some hitters who could also help are low round draftees like Evereth Cabrera, Elvis Andrus and Alcides Escobar who all could steal 30+ bases in 2010. A few other hitters who can provide a decent BA and steal some bases for your are the Rockies Dexter Fowler, the Twins Denard Span, the Cubs SS Ryan Theriot and the Mets 2B Luis Castillo.
The trick in this strategy is to draft guys who will not hurt you in the BA category, but the main focus is to draft ace level starting pitchers early. It wouldn't be crazy to draft a closer in the 11-13th rounds, because you need to win saves for this strategy to work as well.
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As someone who has been thinking about this strategy since last fall and using it in mock drafts and public ESPN drafts ever since they started this February I have some comments:
1. You don’t want Rollins, Bourn, or Kinsler, those guys are going to hurt your average. Ideally, the lowest averages projected averages on this team should be Nyjer Morgan, Rajai Davis, or Dexter Fowler at around .273.
2. You don’t need any of the top speed guys. Crawford, Ellsbury, Ichiro, even Victorino will cost you too much when you need to use those picks/$ on pitching. Here is a list of speed guys to fill your OF with that are all cheap: Pierre, Span, Borbon, Morgan, Davis, Fowler, Coghlan, and even Maybin (if you are in a deeper league). I can tell you right now in a 10-12 team mix, you can get 5 of these guys on your roster to fill out your OF and they will cost you $7-12, for a total cost of $45-50 (out of the standard 260 budget).
3. You basically don’t want anyone for the batting side that will cost more than $12-14, and many guys who will be cheaper than that. I target about $130 at most for hitting, hopefully less than that.
4. This is a strategy that is very hard to pull off in snake draft leagues because the player pool you are targeting is so small and many of these guys go around the same round. But in an auction league, you’ll value these guys more than anyone else will and can pound everyone else into submission. Don’t get locked into just five of the guys I mentioned, at least one or two is going to get bid out of your range, let it go. Also, if Victorino falls low enough, take him instead. Furthermore, you want at least one of Pierre, Coghlan, or Span because they will have higher BA than the other speed OF, but you don’t want both Coghlan and Span because they won’t be running enough to get you the SB you need.
5. In an auction league, don’t nominate anyone you want for a long time. Toss out the highest valued guys first, the Pujols and such, and then when they are gone you toss out guys with high HRs and/or SB who also have lower batting averages. Early in the auction these guys will be overpriced and will draw off a lot of money on players that would never even touch. Watch out though if it looks like more than one other owner is holding back a lot of their money too, most likely they are looking to swoop in on good pitching after the money is spent on hitting. If that is the case, start nominating pitchers who are good or are sleepers but who have a lot of risk, such as Nolasco, Oswalt, or Josh Johnson, that will soak up some of that “smart” pitching money.
6. I would avoid Andrus and Everth Cabrera, their BA won’t be high enough.
7. At first base you need to get one of these three: Billy Butler, Todd Helton, or James Loney. If you are drafting at ESPN, watch out, they have Butler projected for 30 HR, which I think is a reach, but will have people bidding him up. Helton has injury risk, Loney is probably you’re best bet actually, and the cheapest.
8. At 2B, I would target Asdrubal Cabrera, the multi-position eligibility helps. He might cost you as much as $13 though.
9. 3B goes to Chone Figgins. Pay what you have to pay. You need him more than anyone else does.
10. SS goes Erick Aybar, Theriot or Alcides Escobar. Alcides is starting to get more press, and his position in the line up is not well established so he is probably overpriced. Aybar and Theriot are basically interchangeable to me.
11. CI goes to Martin Prado, no one is going to want him more than you do, and he’s usually very cheap. He qualifies at 1B, 2B, and 3B.
12. MI goes to Polanco, again, you want him more than anyone else. Within a week he will be eligible at 3B as well.
13. I’ve already told you what to do with your OF.
14. Catcher is Montero, you can’t afford one of the very top catchers, but you also want someone who is not going to kill your BA. So this is who you want. If he gets too expensive, just settle for Suzuki to get a few SB.
15. U whomever is cheap out of the OF, Aybar, Theriot, and Escobar.
16. For starting pitching don’t take Lincecum, I think he usually goes for too much. Make sure to throw out pitchers you don’t want to soak up some pitching money. Beckett and Hamels are underrated this year, I love them.
17. For closers, you want middle tier closers who are entrenched, not much of an injury risk, and who put up reliable numbers. Here are those that I target: Valverde, Wilson, Qualls (slight knee concerns), Street, Dotel (for a cheap one). I’ve often run the table on these guys and other than Dotel, the prices is usually around $7-11 each and you can get the whole bunch for around $40. Which, if you spend $130 on hitting will leave you $90 to spend on starting pitching.
Well, there you go, that’s my view of this strategy.
and I really hope none of my money league owners read this.
by kellemonster on Feb 28, 2010 7:52 PM EST up reply actions
thanks
but I was targeting straight draft leagues. I think it can be done in straight draft leagues, but it won’t be easy. In straight draft leagues you have to draft the ace pitchers early…Lincecum, Greinke and Halladay are worth more than a SB guy. As for closers, to win with this strategy, you have to have a couple reliable closers like Rivera and Broxton because the idea behind the strategy is to win all the pitching categories.
raygu
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I’m not so sure that I like either Rivera or Broxton, especially for the price, as I do any of the first four closers I’ve named. Rivera eventually is going to fall off a cliff, he’s over 40. And either Hughes or Joba will replace him. Broxton is a big, big guy and they also flame out quickly and Joe Torre overuses his relievers, thinking them all Rivera. Broxton has Sherrill waiting if he starts to falter due to injury.
by kellemonster on Feb 28, 2010 9:46 PM EST up reply actions
I'm wary of punting 2 categories right off the bat
It’s a bit scary to think about going in and knowing the other squads can have up to an 18 point advantage that you don’t have the guns to make up.
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
Well, it’s not like you are really giving up 18 points to every single team. The hope is that all other teams will be fighting it out over HR and RBI, especially since you’re team has abandoned them, making them more plentiful for the other teams.
And obviously this isn’t a strategy for the faint of heart. But I’ll tell you, in all the mock auctions and actual auctions I’ve done so far this year with this strategy, the lowest I’ve been projected to finish was 2nd. Now, there is some good risk involved since you’ve got to not have any of your pitchers fall apart, but there it is.
by kellemonster on Mar 1, 2010 11:14 AM EST up reply actions

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