I was reading Marc Normandin's article where he ranked the top third baseman for 2010 and was surprised, no shocked, to see David Wright ranked ahead of Alex Rodriguez for the top third baseman for 2010.
Here are Marc's rankings with PECOTA projections and Marc's analysis:
Player PA AVG/OBP/SLG R HR RBI SB
David Wright 686 .313/.415/.541 101 29 101 21
Evan Longoria 686 .288/.378/.534 97 37 105 9
Alex Rodriguez 595 .288/.403/.578 91 39 106 17
Ryan Zimmerman 648 .286/.356/.508 88 29 90 2
You can't ask for a much better group than this. PECOTA expects Wright to rebound, but even if he doesn't hit nearly 30 bombs, check out that batting average and on-base percentage. He'll pick up over 100 runs and RBI easily, and as a 20/20 guy, he has loads of value in all five categories. Evan Longoria is David Wright 2.0, but with fewer steals—that's about the only separation between the two at this stage. Long-term, I would take Longoria's bat over Wright's—he's that good—but for 2010, those steals keep the Met in the lead.
PECOTA is overshooting Rodriguez’s homer total—I would put him down for low 30s—and his stolen bases may also be a handful too high. Otherwise, though, it's hard to argue, and discounting those two stats just means he's behind two of the very best at the position. If Zimmerman stole bases, he would be David Wright 3.0. His projection seems a bit low to me, but it's also weighting in his 2007 and 2008 seasons, so that's to be expected. He had well over 110 runs and 106 RBI last year with 33 homers, and there's nothing in his production that says he can't do that again.
First off, David Wright is not the top third baseman in 2010. I have said that enough that Fake Teams readers are tiring of the repeats. But how is he ranked ahead of Alex Rodriguez? And PECOTA overshoots ARod's HR total? I think PECOTA UNDERSHOOTS ARods HR total for 2010.The guy hit 30 HRs in 444 ABs in 2009.
Am I the only one who thinks Wright will not reach 100 RBIs in 2010?