Plateaus We Target
I just re-read this article by Paul Singman over at THT about stats we target and had a thought.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/the-stats-we-target/
He observed an apparent 25 HR breakpoint to reach an ADP less than 200. I know when I look at last year's stats and this year's projections I tend to focus more on guys who achieve certain plateaus, such as 10 SB, 20 HR, 80R or RBI, .280 AVG, etc. Also, many fantasy articles throw out groupings like 20-20, 30-10 etc., so this could have an effect on the perceived values of players relative to those nice, round numbers. Each person certainly has their own preferences and tolerances, but perhaps there is a way to take advantage of some of these tendencies.
Assuming you don't hear as much about Player A who went 18-8 as you do Player B who went 21-11, Player A may drop further in drafts than he should for the relative loss in value. In addition, guys whose stats from last year look like player A but whose projections look more like Player B could be either value picks or overrated depending on perception.
I am not a statistician by any means, so this is all speculation. However, I thought these may be some concepts worth exploring. Does anyone have any thoughts to add or any kind of analytical ability and interest with which to do a little digging?
0 comments
|
0 recs |

by 




























