Fantasy Baseball: Jose Reyes-Worth The Risk??

ESPN's Stephania Bell wrote an article yesterday where she discussed 10 players to watch this spring. Bell's forte is fantasy injuries, so the article was chock full of guys returning from injuries in 2009. She discussed three Mets including SS Jose Reyes. Here is what she ended her Reyes piece with:

Let's frame it this way: While Reyes could get off to a great start with fresh legs, it would not be a surprise to see him miss time again this year. Another thing we know is that when Reyes does travel to the disabled list, his history suggests that he does so for an extended period. And as one of my colleagues who works in the majors reminds me, "The biggest predictor for going on the DL this year is time spent on the DL last year." Hmmm. Sage words for fantasy owners to bear in mind come draft day.

That paragraph tells me not to draft Reyes too early in fantasy drafts as he could very easily re-injure his hamstring and end up on the DL for a very long time. I am sure if he appears healthy coming out of spring training, his draft position/value will go up, but the question still remains-will he run as much as he has in the past?

As I stated in response to a reader's question about Reyes, I don't think he will be running as much this year. Plus, he could get hurt again. I have pulled the same calf muscle about 7-8 times over the last 2 years. Muscle pulls, strains do re-occur. I am certainly not the athlete that Reyes is, but  his value lies in his speed.

It will be helpful to fantasy owners if one of the Mets beat writers asks manager Jerry Manual if Reyes will be running much this year before fantasy drafts occur. Until then, I think Reyes is a risky player to draft early.