Fantasy Baseball: Baseball HQ's Bust Candidates For 2010-Pitchers

by Ray Guilfoyle on Feb 12, 2010 9:00 AM EST in Baseball

Here is the list of pitchers, starters and relievers, that Baseball HQ feel will be fantasy busts in 2010. Shandler creates the list based on the following pitching stats: H%, S%, HR/FB%, and xERA.

David Aardsma (2 A's)

J.A. Happ (not JA)

Trevor Hoffman (2 F's, 1 N)

Mat Latos (1 T)

Tommy Hanson (not "en")

Shandler lists almost all of the top closers in his "Corrections list". I used "bust" since it is easier to say and spell. I used to be a good speller but I am certainly not a good typer. Oh, and I didn't know there was an "n" in Matt Lindstrom's name until someone pointed that out to me. And Jordan Zimmermann, has two "N's" in his name, not one.

Now, onto this list. Well, I have Kershaw and Latos in the UBA league as my two top starting pitchers going into 2010 after dealing Wandy-Rod and Ricky Nolasco. I can see Carpenter being a bit of a bust as he will probably be drafted amongst the top 10 starting pitchers in 2010 drafts even though he has a history of injuries.

I am totally on board with J.A. Happ and Ryan Franklin being on this list as well. I have written about Happ previously as he had an extreme S%, or LOB%, in 2009 around 85%. That won't happen in 2010, so his ERA should increase. Franklin, to me, won't last the season as the Cardinals closer, but then again, you can say that about alot of closers, no?

Greinke being on this list surprised me.

Poll

Can Zack Greinke repeat his stellar 2009 season?

Yes, he's a stud

110 votes

No, he will regress some in 2010

109 votes

219 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

Nice Touch

On the spelling reiterations. Will you guys be running the Fantasy Team Name Contest again this year? My entry “When You Lose Your Haren, You Find Ubaldo” was fairly appropriate last year, no?

by Horatio on Feb 12, 2010 12:10 PM EST reply actions

Greinke

The dude’s FIP in 2009 was 2.33. His xFIP was 3.15. Will his ERA be 2.16? Probably not. But something in the high 2-low 3 range is a perfectly reasonable expectation based on his demonstrated skills. Bill James projects 3.32, CHONE has 3.33, Marcel has 3.24, and those are all weighting his 07-08 fairly heavily. If he puts up 225 Ks and has a 3.33 ERA, that’s not a bust, unless you’re drafting him incredibly early and expecting a repeat of this year’s stats. Seems like they’re being bullish just to be different. Same thing on Kershaw – if you draft him expecting a 2.79 ERA, you’re going to be disappointed, but, keeping in mind that his 09 FIP was 3.08, if you expect a mid 3s ERA and 190-200 strikeouts with an OK WHIP, he’s not a bust. Kershaw’s currently being drafted right between Hamels and Jimenez, and that seems fairly reasonable to me; without being able to read the article itself, unless they’re worried about injury risk (which is fair) I don’t see any real rationale for the “bust” tag.

by OccamsRazor on Feb 13, 2010 2:35 AM EST reply actions