A Closer Look: Los Angeles Dodgers OF Andre Ethier

by Ray Guilfoyle on Feb 1, 2010 9:00 AM EST in Baseball Comment 3 comments

I will follow up on Matt's article on Saturday with a Closer Look at Dodgers outfielder Andre Ethier. Every Friday, BaseballHQ sends out their weekly BaseballHQ Friday email with several articles from the previous week. This week's email included an article about Andre Ethier, and their stance is that the best is yet to come from Ethier.

As a Dodgers fan, I hope they are correct. As a fantasy owner, I am not so sure he can exceed his 2009 season where he went 31-106-.272-.361-.508. Ethier had a big jump in HRs from 20 to 31, and RBIs from 77 to 106 in 2009. Here are their reasons for expecting more from Ethier in 2010:

1. While Ethier's BA dipped in 2009 (especially against LHP), his xBA says he is poised for a BA correction in 2010 ... especially if his H% returns to historical levels.

2. We need to pay attention to declining CT%, but we suspect this trend will turn around in 2010.

3. Ethier's PX and HR/F trends suggest there is even more HR upside than the 31 HR Ethier delivered in 2009.

They say his xBA (.289) says he is poised for a BA correction, yet his 2008 xBA was (.302), and he ended up hitting .272 in 2009. His BA vs. Left-handed pitchers has gone from .351 in 2006 to .279 in 2007, to .243 in 2008 and to .194 in 2009, a very disturbing trend. His CT% has gone from 85% in 2007 to 81% in 2009 mainly to to the increase in his K% from 15.2% in 2007 to 19.8% in 2009.

Ethier's HR/FB% is definitely trending higher-from 9.4% inn 2007 to 15.4% in 2009, as is his FB% from 35.7% in 2007 to 41.5% in 2009. These trends suggest he could hit more HRs in 2009, for sure. But, his K% is on a negative trend, and he could return to the 46% groundball hitting machine he was back in 2007.

This offseason, I dealt Ethier in the UBA league for outfield prospects Michael Stanton, Jose Tabata, and Andrew Lambo. If this deal turns out like a few of my other deals this offseason, Ethier will hit 40 HRs in 2010.

But I wouldn't count on it.

Poll

Can Andre Ethier improve upon his 2009 season where he hit 31 HRs and drove in 106?

Yes, his power is trending up. He can go 35-115.

73 votes

No, Ethier's power peaked in 2009.

57 votes

130 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

A few points

I don’t think I’d categorize his CT% as declining. From ‘05 to ’08 it was 85, 81, 85, 83 respectively. It dipped back down to 81 last season, but rebounded in the second half, as he posted a 79/82 split. Erratic is a more fitting description, IMO. I wouldn’t worry about it. His BABIP was lower than usual, so the BA should rebound a bit. The real question to me is what’s going to happen with his FB rate and HR/FB rate. His FB rate last season took a huge jump from previous seasons and it declined a bit in the 2nd half. Sustainable? I’m not sure; I have my doubts. HR/FB is trending up, but again, is it sustainable? At least it’s on a trend, which is more than I can say for his FB rate. A real interesting season upcoming for Ethier.

Overall, there’s more to like here than to dislike, IMO. I think I’d value him at about his exact last season numbers. Assume the BA rebound will make up for a small power decline if those FB and HR/FB numbers normalize a bit. If they don’t normalize, watch out.

by ILLZ on Feb 1, 2010 9:31 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

One more thing

My God, I can’t even vote in the poll! I can’t make up my mind. I think the deciding factor is age. He’s going into his age 28 season… there’s probably a career year lurking within the next 3 seasons… maybe this is it.

by ILLZ on Feb 1, 2010 9:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If you look at his daily trends from last couple years, there is a distinct growth trend toward the end of 2008. Most stats start 2009 in the same range, but dip in the early part of the season. This is speculation, but it seems to come around the time Manny was suspended. Perhaps he was trying to ‘make up’ for the lost production and got into some bad habits.

Based on the growth he showed in 2008 and the recovery made throughout 2009, I’m taking the OVER for him in 2010. His early season swoon could have been adjustments the league made, or could have been self-imposed pressure. Either way, his total season stats still “hid” some growth imo. Could see him easily producing stats on par with Adam Lind, but a couple rounds later.

by Jimbo1819 on Feb 2, 2010 5:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs