MLB Trade Rumors: Adrian Beltre, Jesus Montero and Other Offseason Thoughts

The offseason has slowed down quite a bit since the Winter Meetings, but there have been some moves in the last few weeks that I have not written about. Here are a few:

Like I asked in a recent Facebook chat with some guys from one of my keeper leagues, where the hell is Adrian Beltre going to sign this offseason, and what kind of terms will he get? It appears the Angels are the only team that is in on him right now, and the A's dropped out of the bidding on Wednesday. Will Scott Boras bring in another team to get the bidding going? Earth to Ned, Beltre would be perfect playing 3B at Chavez Ravine playing behind that starting rotation.

Speaking of the Dodgers, Dan Szymborski has published his ZIPS projections for the Dodgers over at Baseball Think Factory, and one projection stood out for me. He projected Dee Gordon (yes, I own him in a keeper league) to hit .266-.311-.334 with 52 SBs in 2011, assuming he was a full-time starter. I think that might be a bit optimistic in Gordon's first year in the bigs, even if it doesn't happen until 2012, but that projection should not be lost on fantasy owners in keeper leagues.

Yesterday there was an article written that the Yankees had offered Jesus Montero to the Royals for Joakim Soria at the 2010 trade deadline. It is a bit curious, if this rumor is true, that Yankees GM Brian Cashman had the cajones to state that Montero would be his starting catcher to open the 2011 season after offering him to the Royals for Soria, to the Blue Jays for Roy Halladay, and to the Mariners for Cliff Lee. And then he goes out and signs Russell Martin to be his starting catcher in 2011. Here is what Mike Axisa had to say about this rumor over at River Avenue Blues:

Regarding the summer 2010 rumor: If Cashman did offer Montero for Soria, he should be relieved of his duties. The same goes for Dayton Moore if he refused.

I can't disagree with Mike. I wonder exactly what he will get back in return for Jesus Montero at this point. Is it me or has Montero's market value dropped in the last year?

More after the jump:

On Thursday, I will finally get my 2011 Baseball Forecaster published by Ron Shandler and crew over at Baseball HQ. For those of you who are as antsy as I am about getting this book ASAP, I suggest ordering it from his site in late October if you want it before Christmas, and not make the mistake I have made like FOREVER. Apparently, the book started shipping way back on December 10th, but Amazon is also shipping it now. I am sure my brother will have a comment about this in 3, 2, 1........

In the UBA NL-only keeper league, I am considering dealing for a $11 L0 Jayson Werth, and the other owner is asking for my $5 S1 Pedro Alvarez. I am offering a package headed by my $5 S1 Ike Davis. Am I crazy in thinking that Alvarez can match Werth's power numbers in 2011? ZIPS projects Alvarez to hit 28 HRs and drive in 116 runs in 2011.

The Pirates signed first baseman Lyle Overbay a few weeks ago to play first base for them. It appears the Steven Pearce experiment is all but over with. This move, along with the signing of Matt Diaz, will push Garrett Jones into a platoon role in RF, I imagine. I see Pittsburgh drafting third baseman Anthony Rendon in the 2011 draft, and moving Pedro Alvarez to 1B in a couple years when Rendon is ready. I wrote about Rendon here over at Minor League Ball a few weeks ago.

The Astros traded Matt Lindstrom to the Rockies last week, so I assume the Astros will hand their closer duties to Brandon Lyon in 2011. Other guys I would look at for save opps in that bullpen are Wilton Lopez and Mark Melancon. Melancon had a 22-8 K/BB rate in 21+ innings in 2010, while Lopez had a tremendous 50-5 K/BB rate. WOW!! Can you say sleeper?

The Blue Jays signed Octavio Dotel to be their closer on Wednesday. Why? His K rate, while still good, is trending downward, while his walk and HR rates are trending upward. He may fill in fine for a team that probably won't contend in 2011, but they have a solid starting rotation, and they can't be happy about this signing.

The Padres signed former Rockie Brad Hawpe to a one year deal to man first base in 2011. I can see them platooning Hawpe with Kyle Blanks once Blanks is fully recovered from his Tommy John surgery. Hawpe and Blanks will keep first base warm for recently acquired first base prospect Anthony Rizzo.

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