I am working on my 2011 Outfielder rankings and am considering including Diamondbacks outfielder Justin Upton in my Top 12. He is coming off a disappointing season in 2010, which saw him hit .273-.356-.442 with 17 HRs, 69 RBIs, 73 runs scored and 18 SBs in 495 ABs while battling a shoulder injury.
His BABIP dropped only slightly from .360-.354, but his ISO dropped from .232 to .170, probably due to his shoulder injury. Upton elected to not have surgery this offseason, and one has to wonder if he will be 100% healthy in 2011. Another concern for fantasy owners, and Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers who put him on the trade block last month, is his K rate. Upton's K rate jumped from 26% in 2009 to 31% in 2010. Towers rid his roster of several high strikeout hitters this offseason namely Adam Laroche and Mark Reynolds.
Bill James projects Upton to hit .287-.371-.498 with 23 HRs, 82 RBIs, and 18 SBs in 2011. I think he can approach 30 HRs in Arizona's hitter-friendly ballpark.
Is Justin Upton a Top 10 outfielder in 2011?