Improbable Predictions: New York Yankees

by Bluethunder33 on Dec 1, 2010 12:29 PM EST

So we have entered the offseason for Major League Baseball and the winter meetings are upon us. Typically there is a lot of non-sensical trade feelers thrown around at these meetings with few of them actually having any teeth... So, I would like to play devil's advocate for a second here and see how likely or unlikely the following situation is:

My first Improbable Prediction for 2011: The New York Yankees' pitching rotation will consist of CC Sabathia, Cliff Lee, and Zack Greinke... Follow my reasoning after the jump below:

We know that CC will be a Yankee for the foreseeable future - no mystery there.
We also know that the Yankees can offer more money to Cliff Lee than any other team in baseball - again, no mystery, the only question is whether Lee will take the big big money and how much it will be...
The dark-horse in this whole thought experiment is Zack Geinke.

Here is why I think good ole Zack could wear pinstripes next year:

He is good - very good - and the Yankees should always want to add someone of his pitching caliber to their roster (duh).
Recent reports suggest that his no-trade list is not quite indicative of his desire to stay low profile and away from big markets, but rather is to give him bargaining power if a trade becomes possible. It seems likely that his desire to play with a winner is stronger than some assumed and that his anxiety issues of the past are manageable and not a concern (to him at least).
The Yankees have excellent prospects and players to offer a trade in exchange for one of the best young pitchers in baseball.
Zack's contract is no problem for the Yankees to take on and is quite team friendly for a large market team

I think the recent reports that Cashman will let Jesus Montero have a chance at the starting catcher job is grossly over hyped - purposely to try and downplay Montero's defensive inadequacies and enhance his trade value by suggesting that he can handle a MLB pitching staff. Let's note at this point that I love Montero and own him in a keeper league and further believe that he has a special bat - for fantasy purposes, thats all we need to know - as long as he can get the AB's, his defense really doesn't affect the fantasy value. In real-life however, there is more to the game than just being a smash-a-holic with the baseball.

The Yankees are bleeding young catchers and young pitchers, so as crazy as it may sound, Montero is expendable (as was shown with his availability in the Cliff Lee offer last season). The Yankees have veteran Jorge Posada and the scrappy Francisco Cervelli. Also, they have two minor league catchers with excellent projection to stay at the catcher position (everyone reports that Montero is likely to move from Catcher in the future) - Austin Romine and Gary Sanchez. Sanchez is very young but draws rave reviews for his advanced approach at the plate and does have some power projection to go with what has been described as a 'special package'. Sanchez will be the next Montero but could actually stick at catcher.

So here is what I propose we could see over the course of the offseason:

The Yankees sign Cliff Lee
The Yankees trade a sizable package to acquire Zack Greinke
The Yankees would instantly be World Series favorites (big leap of faith there huh?)

What could a potential trade look like for Greinke? How about Jesus Montero, Andrew Brackman, and Joba Chamberlain? If Kansas City is convinced of the reports that Montero could be ready to give the MLB pitching staffs a go, then it could happen. The big thing is if they don't quite buy it and really have no use for Montero who would move to DH or 1B if he can't handle the defensive duties. Billy Butler and Eric Hosmer (soon to be ready) will have 1B and DH covered for a long time pending any trades.

How far fetched would it be to see the opening day pitching staff consist of CC, Greinke, Lee, Hughes, (and someone else - doesn't matter)?... They can go Lefty, Righty all the way to the best record in baseball and not miss a beat with giving up a good haul for one of the premier young pitchers.

You heard it here first!

Poll

Is this scenario improbable, impossible, or simply crazy talk to even consider (i.e. impossible squared)?

Eh, it could happen (>50% chance)

56 votes

Its certainly a long shot but hey, crazier things have happened (25% - 49% chance)

72 votes

Doubtful, even the Yakees have limits (10% - 24% chance)

51 votes

What are you smoking? (<5% chance)

60 votes

239 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

Grienke to the Yankees does make sense.

I probably wouldn’t build around Jesus Montero if I were the Royals because as you said, his ability to stick at catcher seems low. At best, you’re getting a crappy defensive catcher (the guy who handles all of your young, inexperienced pitchers) and at worst you are benching one of those 3 guys (Butler and Hosmer included, plus Kila monster)

I would build a package around Manny Banuelos. Despite the fact that Grienke had a “down” year, he’s still a premium arm with 2 years left on his contract, and I assume a contract extension if he goes to New York. At least, that would seem very likely.

Roy Halladay had a contract extension and the Phillies gave up Michael Taylor, Kyle Drabek, and Travis D’Arnaud to get him. Thats two top-30 prospects and Travis ranked 81st by BA.

Grienke is younger but not as good. It’s an even give and take. I assume Banuelos will be ranked about the same as what Drabek was ranked (25th) So another top 30 prospect, or of equal value, could be Phil Hughes. Joba Chamberlain doesn’t hold anything close to the same value because he has proven that he doesn’t stand much of a chance of being a starter. Dellin Betances could take Hughes place and might be the more attractive option for both teams. Austin Romine and a fourth player could finalize the deal.

by Kenneth Arthur on Dec 1, 2010 2:09 PM EST reply actions

I just suspect that the Yankees are quietly intent on moving Montero while they can still call him a Catcher where he can have much more value with a power bat at a weak position… once he moves to 1B/DH the potential suitors for him becomes smaller and he has to post much larger numbers to be considered an upper level 1B/DH guy.

I think he can post such numbers, by the way… but he will be all of 21 years old this season so the kid is still super young

by Bluethunder33 on Dec 1, 2010 2:18 PM EST up reply actions

Just found this...

Jon Heyman of SI.com

• The time is now for the Royals to trade Greinke. An acquaintance of his said, "He is ready to go.‘’ That could be partly because his partial no-trade list expires late this season. The Rangers, seen as a potential second-place finisher in the Cliff Lee derby, have been viewed as the favorite. Greinke has an extensive no-trade list but he’s said to be willing to consider a lot of different options. Even if he will OK some teams on his list, friends of his say New York is not a good fit for Greinke, who has successfully battled anxiety and is said to prefer a smaller city. Other teams that might have the prospects and financial wherewithal to pull off a Greinke trade could include the Tigers, Orioles and Braves. While momentum is gathering for a Greinke trade, a Royals person said it "would have to be a blockbuster to move him.’’

by Bluethunder33 on Dec 1, 2010 2:14 PM EST reply actions

Rangers and Braves seem to be good fits. Good for the Orioles, seems like they aren't ready to give in and will be active this offseason. They'd have to give up Britton you would think though.

by Kenneth Arthur on Dec 1, 2010 4:16 PM EST up reply actions

I really don’t see how the Royals can afford to trade Greinke away. Without him, the Royals have a rotation by definition only. Plus they have never made and decent trades, minus the Jermaine Dye trade many moons ago. I realize it’s a different front office now- but what have they done. Remember all the trades made by Dayton Moore when he took office? How many of those worked out for anything? I realize he was essentially trading away AAAA potential players for players with upside, but still.

If the Royals trade away Greinke, which I’m assuming they will do, they will probably get taken to the cleaners by the Braves, Yankees or Red Sox. BTW- why isn’t anyone mentioning the Red Sox as possible teams wanting Greinke anyway?

by acr on Dec 1, 2010 5:35 PM EST reply actions

Red Sox

I think they need hitting more than pitching….they already have Bucholz, Lester, Becket and Lackey and Dice-K.
I think the Royals know they won’t win now, so why not deal him? Plus they have 3 solid pitching prospects in the minors….why not add a few who are close to being major league ready when the Royals hitting prospects are ready-Moustakas, Hosmer, Myers, etc.

Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 2, 2010 9:13 AM EST up reply actions

agreed

I still think the Yankees can get something done with the prospects that they have and the deep pockets they possess….

by Bluethunder33 on Dec 2, 2010 2:33 PM EST up reply actions

I hate to say this, but if the Yankees get a hold of Zack....

it would turn me into a Yankee fan, every 5th day.

"In the final analysis, the only opinion that really matters to all of us, is our own." ~TheK-Man~

by TheK-man on Dec 3, 2010 5:21 PM EST reply actions

As a matter of fact, I would love to see Zack in pinstripes. The fans in New York....would

take to Zack like a duck to water, and it wouldn’t shock me a bit to see him thrive in the limelight of Yanktown. I think he’d throw his best baseball ever in pinstripes, and win a couple of more Cy Youngs.

I just hope when they ship Zack, they get a few guys that are ready to contribute, and guys that we don’t have the equivalent of already in the farm system. It drives me nuts when we give our marquee talent up to save salary, for farm system talent we already have.

And now, a quote from 3 of the wisest people that I've ever known:

"The towels were so thick there....I could hardly close my suitcase." ~Yogi Berra~

"I am a Physicist and a Cosmologist and although I cannot move, and must speak through a computer, in my mind............... I am free". ~Stephen Hawking~

"In the final analysis, the only opinion that really matters to all of us, is our own." ~TheK-Man~

by TheK-man on Dec 3, 2010 9:22 PM EST up reply actions