Fantasy Baseball: 2011 Catcher Rankings

by Ray Guilfoyle on Nov 24, 2010 12:00 PM EST in Baseball

Here is an early look at the catcher rankings for 2011 fantasy drafts. We saw a couple rookie catchers called up in 2010 who will probably be in the Top 3 catchers by the end of the 2011 season. Giants catcher Buster Posey and Indians catcher Carlos Santana are heading into their first full season in the big leagues next year, and both could outperform their draft position.

Here is my early look at the 2011 catcher rankings:

1. Buster Posey, SFG-If he can hit .300, hit 20+ HRs and drive in 85, he will be the #1 fantasy catcher in 2011. I know this is an aggressive rating, but the young catcher hit .305-.357-.505 with 18 HRs and 67 RBIs in 406 ABs in 2010. Bill James projects him to go 21-83-.308 in 2011. Does Mauer even sniff 20 bombs?

2. Joe Mauer, MIN-will he ever hit 28 HRs again? Did he have a contract push in 2009? Mauer provides fantasy owners with excellent BA and RBIs, but he has middle infielder power. I meanJames Loney hit more HRs than Mauer in 2010. Can he put up a 15-90-.320 season in 2011?

3. Victor Martinez, DET-VMart signed a 4 year, $50 million deal with the Tigers on Tuesday. VMart hit .302-.351-.493 with 20 HRs and 79 RBIs in 2010. He has hit 20+ HRs in 5 of his last 6 seasons, driven in 100+ runs three times in his career, and is a career .300 hitter.

4. Brian McCann, ATL-McCann is as consistent as they come, and could be the top fantasy catcher in 2011. Bill James project 24-94-.280 in 2011 and I could see him hitting that projection in the improved Braves lineup.

5. Carlos Santana, CLE-it will be interesting to see how he bounces back from his knee injury in 2011. The guy can flat out hit, has a solid plate discipline, and can hit for power. He is another who could pass the Mauers, McCanns and Martinez's in 2012.

6. Miguel Montero, ARI-Montero was hurt for a good part of 2010, but stlll hit .266-.336-.432 with 9 HRs and 43 RBIs in 325+ at bats. Can he go 20-80 in 2011? I think he can as long as Arizona doesn't change the dimensions of the BOB.

7. Geovany Soto, CHC-Soto had an injury filled season in 2010, but still hit .280-.393-.497 with 17 HRs and 53 RBIs. He should play everyday in 2011, and could approach 20 HRs and 75 RBIs, which is right around where Bill James projects for him.

8. Kurt Suzuki, OAK-Suzuki put together another solid season in 2010, after going 15-88-.274 in 2009. Suzuki hit just .242-.303-.366, but hit 13 HRs and drove in 71 runs, which was good for 4th amongst catchers in 2010.

9. Mike Napoli, LAA-Napoli strikes out alot-more than 30% of his at bats-but has lots of power as well. He hit 26 HRs in 2010, the third straight year with 20+ HRs. If you need some power out of your catcher spot, Napoli is a good late round pick.

10. Jorge Posada, NYY-he still qualifies at catcher in 2011, and is slated to be the Yankees DH at the start of the 2011 season. He isn't the same hitter he was a few years back, but provides solid power and could be ready to make one last contract year push.

11. Miguel Olivo, COL-Olivo was signed to backup Chris Iannetta last year, but found himself starting by May. Olivo responded by hitting .269-.315-.449 with 14 HRs and 58 RBIs in 394 ABs. He has averaged 16 HRs over the last 5 years.

12. Matt Weiters, BAL-is 2011 the year where we finally see the real breakout season from Weiters? He hit .249-.319-.377 with 11 HRs and 55 RBIs in 2010.

After the top 12 or so catchers, it comes down to a flip of the coin for the most part. I will provide a deeper catcher ranking as we approach spring training.

Poll

Who is the #1 fantasy catcher in 2011?

Posey

82 votes

Mauer

79 votes

McCann

27 votes

Martinez

10 votes

Santana

22 votes

220 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

Posey seems really overrated by everyone

You’re saying that if Posey hits the numbers that we expect from Vmart, he’ll be the #1 catcher in 2011. But then if we know that VMart can/will hit those numbers, why is he behind Posey?

I see Santana above Posey for this year, as Santana has a higher power upside and should hit for a similar average and higher R/RBIs. Every catcher is an injury risk, and this year Posey will be a full time catcher and have the same risk as most other non-Mauer catchers.

by QuinnTheEzkamo on Nov 24, 2010 12:38 PM EST reply actions

non-Mauer catchers?

is he free from injury?

you make a good point with regard to VMart though….they are close….and one could argue to rank both ahead of Mauer…..

Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Nov 24, 2010 1:19 PM EST up reply actions

O Rly?

There’s a decent argument that Posey didn’t even hit his full potential in 2010, as he showed a siginificantly lower walk rate than he’s had at other levels. If that normalizes even a little, his OBP will go up, and the pitches he sees could improve his other numbers as well.

Posey has tremendous defensive upside as well, if you’ve seen him play. His throws to 2nd are exciting, and I expect him to be a future gold-glover.

""I’d like to be a crossword clue one day. I want to be in The New York Times’s Sunday edition. Right now, the clue ‘Giants great’ is always Mel Ott. I want my clue to be down, not across. The down ones are usually harder. And when I’m the clue, I’ll fill it in — just that one — and frame it. " - Brian Wilson.

by hairball on Nov 24, 2010 1:40 PM EST up reply actions

You're assuming he only improves and the league doesn't adjust to him

His K% and .ISO were pretty close to his minor league numbers, and with the lower walk rate I’m surprised he showed as much power as he did this year. He wasn’t a full-time catcher this year, which likely helped develop his hitting faster than other catchers. However, if we’re going to compare minor league numbers, take a look at Carlos Santana. Same K%, much better BB%, and better .ISO.

I don’t think that he could really improve on his 2010 in 2011. He had a ridiculous July and September and was on pace for about .300-25HR over a full season. You can’t just his 2010 season and say that he could replicate it, either. A lot of things had to go right for him, with him only catching 75% of his MLB games and being a relatively lucky HR hitter over the year. The Giants’ focus on getting him on 1B also let him focus more on hitting, but as a full-time catcher, that may stall. Young catchers generally take longer to develop their hitting than young position players. As he’s learning how to better handle the plate and the staff, opposing pitchers will be learning how to better pitch to him.

As for the ‘non-Mauer catchers’ comment, I think everyone sees Mauer as a huge injury risk. The Nelson Cruz or Josh Hamilton high-risk/high-reward pick. I still don’t see Mauer as a better pick than McCann and VMart, especially when people were using 1st round picks on him. I think the fantasy community gets really enamored by high profile catchers like Posey and Mauer. Both guys are really great catchers, but from a fantasy perspective don’t have the same upside as Santana or consistency as McCann. With catcher so relatively deep this year, using that 3rd round pick on Posey is going to be really foolish.

by QuinnTheEzkamo on Nov 25, 2010 5:47 AM EST up reply actions

Posey

what is not to like? He hits for more power than Mauer, and hits for a good BA, drives in runs….and he’s a catcher.
I honestly don’t know why Mauer is considered the #1 catcher….he’s hit all of 75 HRs in 6 major league seasons…sure he has a .327 BA. He averages 13 HRs and 75 RBIs in his 6 major league seasons….good but not great

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.sbnation.com
www.minorleagueball.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Nov 24, 2010 1:41 PM EST reply actions

I do think the real question is between Santana and Posey

by hairball on Nov 24, 2010 2:14 PM EST up reply actions

Posey

I’m not buying the hype on Posey but that’s because of a couple things-
1. The last few young catchers that had nice ‘break out’ years, Miguel Montero and Geovany Soto had real bad follow-up campaigns.

2. I don’t expect to see several members of the SF Giants having career offensive years all at once again in 2011, like they did in 2010. Posey may be a good hitter but his numbers are somewhat dependent on those hitting around him. Plus the Giants play in a pitcher’s park and are in a division where most of the teams have pitcher’s parks.

by acr on Nov 25, 2010 5:10 AM EST reply actions

Comment on point 1

Correlation isn’t causation for Montero/Soto, especially since Montero was injured for his follow-up campaign. However, those examples do highlight the fact that expecting young catchers to continue focusing on developing their hitting is a lot. These guys, in their follow-up campaign, were supposed to be full-time catchers. That means more focus away from hitting and a much higher injury risk. We expect a lot from guys like Wieters, Santana, and Posey, but our expectations may be unrealistic given the other break-out rookies that have continued to develop at OF or 3B or not catcher.

Also, who wants to buy a hyped player after his break-out? Are people really going to spend that top 5 pick on CarGo like they did with Kemp last year? The shiny new toy in the draft will usually cost more than it’s worth.

by QuinnTheEzkamo on Nov 25, 2010 5:55 AM EST up reply actions

Posey is for real

You forget to mention that until his September slump, Posey was hitting around .330-.340. If he’d had a complete season, he would’ve broken out of the slump and finished with a line around 23-85-.320. And Posey is an incredibly smart player. Some people think that the league will adjust to him, but Posey will adjust back just as quickly.

This kid is a pure hitter, and he reminds me of Joe Mauer, just with a lot more power.

by WasabiTorture on Nov 27, 2010 6:42 PM EST reply actions