Fantasy Baseball: Projecting The 2011 First Round
by Ray Guilfoyle on Nov 22, 2010 8:00 AM EST
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PrintPreviously, I have written a couple articles looking at the Top 10 Hitters for 2011 and Top 10 Starting Pitchers for 2011, so today, I am going to give you my projected first round picks for 2011.
Round 1.1- Albert Pujols, STL-last year I made the mistake of buying the Matt Kemp hype and made him my #1 pick for 2011. You live and you learn. Anyway, everyone knows what Pujols can deliver year in and year out. He hit .312-.414-.596 with 42 HRs, 118 RBIs, 115 runs scored and stole 14 bases in 2010. You can expect him to go 40-115-15-.300 in 2011.
Round 1.2-Miguel Cabrera, DET-Miggy bounced back from his off-field troubles in 2009 to challenge Albert Pujols for the #1 pick in fantasy drafts in 2011. Some may choose Miggy over Albert, but Albert's SBs put him over the top for me. Miggy hit .328-.420-.622 with 38 HRs, 126 RBIs, 111 runs scored and 3 SBs in 2010. He is on the verge of a 40-130-.330 season in the near future.
Round 1.3-Hanley Ramirez, FLA-shortstop is usually a thin position, but it is especially thin in 2011. Hanley hit .300-.378-.475 with "just" 21 HRs, 76 RBIs, 92 runs scored and 32 SBs in 2010. I, for one, am worried about his power production despite putting on more muscle at the beginning of the 2009 season. His power has dropped in each of the last two years-33-24-21-but he is entering his age 27 season, and SS is thin, so he keeps his Top 3 ranking. Should the SB totals drop for some reason in 2011, he could see a drop to the second half of the first round in 2012.
Round 1.4- Robinson Cano, NYY-Cano has passed Chase Utley as the best hitting second baseman in fantasy baseball in 2010. He hit .319-.384-.531 with 29 HRs, 109 RBIs, 103 runs scored and 3 SBs in 2010. He has solid plate discipline as he strikes out only 12% of his ABs, and has a solid 8% BB rate. As a left-handed hitter, he benefits from the short RF fence in Yankee Stadium.
Round 1.5-Joey Votto, CIN-Votto had a breakout season in 2010. He is another hitter who overcame off-field issues to have a very good season in 2010. He hit .324-.424-.600 with 37 HRs, 113 RBIs, 106 runs scored and 16 SBs in 2010. I could easily rank him ahead of Cano at #4, and may change my mind come spring training, as the SB total make him a 5 category hitter, and a 6 category hitter in 6 x 6 leagues that track OBP.
Round 1.6-Ryan Braun, MIL-A case can be made that Braun should be ranked lower, maybe behind Chase Utley or David Wright or Evan Longoria....heck, some people may rank him behind Carlos Gonzalez. But, I think Braun has established a track record than Gonzalez and is not injury prone like Chase Utley. Braun hit .304-.365-.501 with just 25 HRs, 103 RBIs, 101 runs scored and 14 SBs. Don't get me wrong, CarGo had the better 2010 season, but Braun still has the skills to put up a 35+ HR season.
Round 1.7-Carlos Gonzalez, COL-I may rank him ahead of Braun by spring training, as he hit .336-.376-.598 with 34 HRs, 117 RBIs, 111 runs scored and 26 SBs. What worries me is the fact that he hit .380-.425-.737 with 26 HRs, 76 RBIs and 10 SBs at home in 2010. Sure, Coors Field is a hitters haven, but I don't see him duplicating that in 2011. I do expect a 25-20 season from him in 2011.
Round 1.8-Evan Longoria, TB-Longoria had a drop in his HR total dropped by a third, from 33 to 22 in 2010, but he also lowered his K rate from 24% to 22%, while maintaining a solid BB rate at around 11%. He hit .294-.372-.507 with 22 HRs, 104 RBIs, 96 runs scored and 16 SBs in 2010. Bill James projects him to hit 31 HRs in 2011.
Round 1.9- Troy Tulowitzki, COL-the lack of depth at the SS position puts Tulo in the first round in 2011 for me. He hit .315-.381-.568 with 27 HRs, 95 RBIs, 89 runs scored and stole 11 bases, despite playing only 122 games. In fact, I may rank him ahead of Hanley Ramirez come spring training, as he almost duplicated his 2009 breakout season in 2010 in 29 less games. Of course, it took a tremendous roll in September to reach these numbers.
Round 1.10-Carl Crawford, TB-Crawford hit .307-.356-.495 with 19 HRs, 90 RBIs, 110 runs scored and 46 SBs in 2010. Discounting his injury riddled 2008 season, Crawford has averaged 50+ SBs every year. Could he go 20-50 in 2011?
Round 1.11-Chase Utley, PHI-this ranking assumes Utley is healthy in 2011. Utley has proven to be injury prone the last two seasons, but when healthy, he is the top 1-2 second baseman in fantasy baseball. Utley is the type of guy who will play through injuries. He hit .275-.387-.445 with 16 HRs, 65 RBIs, 75 runs scord and 13 SBs in 2010, despite playing in just 115 games. He could return to the 25-90-.290 hitter in 2011 should he stay healthy.
Round 1.12-David Wright, NYM-Wright proved me wrong in 2010, as he had a bounceback season after hitting just 10 HRs in 2009. Wright hit .283-.354-.503 with 27 HRs, 103 RBIs, 87 runs scored and 19 SBs in 2010, and I could see him duplicating that effort in 2011.
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No catcher or pitcher in the top 12? I would agree with that but it would be hard letting Roy Halladay slip bye although I guess in a snake draft he could be there for the first few picks in the second round. I think in most drafts there will be a couple starting pitchers taken though FWIW. Oddly I think the rest of your picks show an under representation of the outfield. Again, not that I disagree- but it’s interesting there are at least 2 position players across the board (except C) for each position and only three for the OF. Maybe the OF is getting a bit thinner this coming year which would mean an increased value in the Brauns and Cargo’s of the baseball world.
I’m not sure who I would use to replace any players on your list as I’m kinda writing this off the cuff. But I’m pretty sure Cargo and Tulo are stretches to be top 12 picks in 2011. I don’t like the fact that Cargo hit nearly 100 points lower on the road in both avg and obp (as well as only 8 hr’s in 287 road at bats- as well as a 15:81 bb:k rate) during his break out year. But he finished exceptionally strong so maybe he comes close to his 2010 numbers. But I think it’s more realistic to see him as a 25 homer guy next year.
Tulo? This guy had 40 of his 95 rbi’s and 15 of his 27 homers during the last month of the season. On a positive note though he really only had 4 fully healthy months. And if you take out the career September, he still has a nice split of 3 months with 9 homers and 42 rbi’s. So yeah, Tulo totaled nearly as many rbi’s and actually more homers in September as his other three healthy months combined. Let’s not forget that the Sept. consisted of about 20 more plate appearances than he will normally get during a season. But still I think the 42 rbi’s mentioned above was more than I expected. Anyway, though- I just don’t see passing over Ryan Howard or Prince to grab Tulo. Especially when there are a number of SS’s out there that could put up Stephen Drew type numbers- which doesn’t really separate Tulo from the middling SS pack to justify a top 10 pick for him.
Also interesting to see who has been left off the list and who all was on most people’s top 12 picks last year- Prince, Kemp, ARod, Ryan Howard, Teixeira.
Tulo also finished 09 with four straight 1000+ OPS months
so he is probably a safe bet to have elite production at clean up. Cargo spent 1/3of his season batting lead-off and his 2010 looks a lot like the second half of his 2009 as well, I would be comfortable with either in the top 10(It is unlikely the Rockies play their home games anywhere other than in Colorado next year)
Who ever heard of the Cubs losing a game they had to have? Frank Chance 1908
Disagreements
I would take Votto over Hanley because I believe I will get more production out of Votto and I don’t have to worry about him not going all out.
Also, I think I would take Josh Hamilton over David Wright for sure and maybe over Crawford depending on where Crawford lands.
Just a personal thing, I’m not huge on taking “shallow” positions early. I think you have to get the best production possible early and play for value late in the draft. As a result I’ve never owned Hanley, or Utely but I did have Martin Pardo for example this year.
"What happened yesterday is history. What happens tomorrow is a mystery. What we do today makes a difference - the precious present moment."- Nick Saban
Votto+ whoever you end up with at SS
is unlikely to pruduce as Hanley/Tulo plus whoever you find at 1B. The positional value of Hanley/Tulo is huge in any league with more than 6 teams, as the 12th best SS was a black hole, while the 12 best 1B is still of some value
Who ever heard of the Cubs losing a game they had to have? Frank Chance 1908
looking at this list...
i would prefer to get a pick towards the end of the round in 2011. outside of pujols at #1 i think you can scramble the next 11 plus add in guys like A-Rod, Teixiera, Halladay and not get much of an argument from me.
agree with this
but I’d take the #2 pick as well to grab Cabrera, before a preference for the end of the round.
Wright still has question marks, as we’ve discussed in previous posts. He’s a 2nd rounder for me.
side note—Crawford is a big risk too, depending on where he ends up. In the right park, he could be 20-50 and a top-6ish pick…wrong park and he’s a 2nd round value.
Tulowitzki is also too high IMHO, for many of the reasons acr brought up. I might slot him and Halladay in at the end of the first round, moving Wright out.
by PrincetonCubs on Nov 22, 2010 12:05 PM EST up reply actions
Crawford
why is he a risk? Wasn’t he playing the majority of his games in teh tough AL East?
I would like to see what Tulo can do in a full season of at bats…..I was skeptical coming into 2010, but he proved me wrong, in less at bats.
Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Nov 22, 2010 9:15 PM EST up reply actions
Crawford
played his home games in an unfavorable park for hitters (not too HR-depressing, though, especially for lefties), but all the other parks in the AL East are huge hitter’s parks, especially for HRs. Pitching in the East this year wasn’t super awesome either, I’d venture.
I just meant that if ended up in Anaheim, for example, he could be a 10 HR guy. Plus, he’s a speed guy with an injury history who’ll turn 30 next year…that’s when wheels have been known to start coming off. There’s some risk/high reward involved, that’s all I was saying.
by PrincetonCubs on Nov 23, 2010 1:29 PM EST up reply actions
Puhols and Cabrera
Like PrincetonCubs said, I’m with Puhols and Cabrera at #1 and #2. But beyond that, I think it is a matter of who you think you can get in rounds 2-4. Just don’t see much separation with anybody else. And I think you have to throw Tex and Holliday in the mix. I here what you’re saying about a thin SS giving Hanley more value, but his volatile nature (and questionable Florida club) make me nervous. And, in leagues that penalize K’s, no way will I take Wright at #12.
pretty bad when you can't get your #1 pick's name right
make that Pujols. Guess it’s too early in the morning for me.
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