Fantasy Baseball: Pitching Sleepers For 2011

by Ray Guilfoyle on Oct 9, 2010 8:00 AM EDT in Baseball

DENVER - SEPTEMBER 14: Starting pitcher Jason Hammel #46 of the Colorado Rockies delivers against the San Diego Padres at Coors Field on September 14 2010 in Denver Colorado. (Photo by Doug Pensinger/Getty Images)

Here is a chart, via Fangaphs, that lists some starting pitchers who underperformed their FIP, or Fielding Independent Pitching, and xFIP, which attempts to normalize home runs in FIP. xFIP can be used to predict a pitcher's future performance.

Name	Team	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	AVG	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP	E-F	xFIP
Change page: < 1 2 3 > \| Displaying page 1 of 3, items 1 to 35 of 92.
Jason Hammel	Rockies	7.14	2.38	3.00	0.91	.286	1.40	.337	68.6 %	4.81	3.70	1.11	3.81
Francisco Liriano	Twins	9.44	2.72	3.47	0.42	.254	1.26	.340	73.1 %	3.62	2.66	0.96	3.06
James Shields	Rays	8.28	2.26	3.67	1.50	.300	1.46	.354	68.4 %	5.18	4.24	0.94	3.72
Paul Maholm	Pirates	4.95	3.01	1.65	0.73	.304	1.56	.336	64.8 %	5.10	4.18	0.92	4.56
Kyle Davies	Royals	6.17	3.92	1.58	0.98	.285	1.56	.322	66.9 %	5.34	4.46	0.88	4.93
Zack Greinke	Royals	7.40	2.25	3.29	0.74	.261	1.25	.314	65.3 %	4.17	3.34	0.83	3.76
Yovani Gallardo	Brewers	9.73	3.65	2.67	0.58	.254	1.37	.340	69.8 %	3.84	3.02	0.82	3.42
Chris Narveson	Brewers	7.35	3.17	2.32	1.13	.267	1.38	.310	67.8 %	4.99	4.22	0.77	4.33
Justin Masterson	Indians	7.00	3.65	1.92	0.70	.280	1.50	.332	66.6 %	4.70	3.93	0.77	3.98
Jeremy Bonderman	Tigers	5.89	3.16	1.87	1.32	.279	1.44	.304	64.9 %	5.53	4.90	0.63	4.74
Gavin Floyd	White Sox	7.25	2.79	2.60	0.67	.274	1.37	.329	70.3 %	4.08	3.46	0.62	3.83
Edwin Jackson	- - -	7.78	3.35	2.32	0.90	.266	1.39	.320	69.6 %	4.47	3.86	0.61	3.85
Rick Porcello	Tigers	4.65	2.10	2.21	1.00	.291	1.39	.312	65.9 %	4.92	4.31	0.61	4.40
Cliff Lee	- - -	7.84	0.76	10.28	0.68	.246	1.00	.302	67.9 %	3.18	2.58	0.59	3.23
John Lackey	Red Sox	6.53	3.01	2.17	0.75	.278	1.42	.323	69.3 %	4.40	3.85	0.55	4.32
Scott Baker	Twins	7.82	2.27	3.44	1.22	.279	1.34	.329	73.0 %	4.49	3.96	0.53	4.02
Chad Billingsley	Dodgers	8.03	3.24	2.48	0.38	.246	1.28	.313	71.0 %	3.57	3.07	0.50	3.81
Joe Blanton	Phillies	6.87	2.20	3.12	1.38	.294	1.42	.331	69.1 %	4.82	4.34	0.48	4.06
Doug Fister	Mariners	4.89	1.68	2.91	0.68	.279	1.28	.309	67.7 %	4.11	3.65	0.46	4.27
A.J. Burnett	Yankees	6.99	3.76	1.86	1.21	.279	1.51	.319	68.8 %	5.26	4.83	0.43	4.6

One guy that I will stay away from no matter what the list tells me is Paul Maholm. I just don't trust him, and I am beginning to wonder if the Pirates feel the same way about him.

I drafted Jason Hammel in my big money, non keeper league, and he pitched pretty well after his DL stint back in May.

As a Dodgers fan, I hope Chad Billingsley has turned the corner as a pitcher. I think 2011 will be a very important year for him, and he could have a breakout-type season after the solid second half he had. Billz had a second half ERA of 3.00 with a WHIP of 1.17, but had only 5 wins to show for it.

Its amazing to think that Cliff Lee and Francisco Liriano could pitch better in 2011 than they did in 2010. Lee is probably a top 5-6 starting pitcher in 2011 fantasy drafts. Liriano is a future ace, if he is not one already. His LOB% of 73% and BABIP of .340 should come down a bit in 2011, resulting in a lower ERA and WHIP.

Not all of these pitchers will be sleepers, but guys like Hammel, Chris Narveson and Joe Blanton could surprise in 2011. Every year, there are several starting pitchers who experience a breakout season, and 2011 will be no different.

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