Can He Repeat in 2011: Casey McGehee

2010 Performance

.285/.337/.464, 38 doubles, 23 home runs, 104 runs batted in, 70 runs scored, 1 stolen base

7.5% BB rate, 16.7% K rate, BABIP of .306, Line Drive % of 16.9%, Fly Ball Rate of 35.7%

Rankings

My Original Rank: Not in my Top 15 at either 2B or 3B

ESPN's Preseason Rank: 25 (2B), 27 (3B)

Yahoo's Final Rank: 6 (2B), 9 (3B)

ESPN's Final Player Rater Rank: 7 (2B), 9 (3B)

McGehee was coming off of a definite breakout season in 2009, but it was not clear that he would be able to duplicate that form in 2010. He clearly did, and improved on it as well, but is it real?

My Thoughts

Home Runs - McGehee hit 23 home runs this year, and I actually think there's a chance he improves on that number next season. When comparing his 2009 stats to his 2010 stats, it's important to note that he had nearly 300 less plate appearances in 2009, but only 7 less homeruns. He hit a home run every 29 at bats in 2010, but was at 1 per every 24 at bats in 2009. His fly ball rate actually decreased significantly as well, going from 40% to 35% in 2010. I think he actually could approach 30 home runs next year in similar at bats.

Runs Batted In and Runs Scored - Odds are that in Milwaukee, the only significant change to their lineup could be from a trade of Prince Fielder. Otherwise, he's likely to have similar opportunities to drive in runs, and similar opportunities to score them as well. I do think that of course this will be highly dependent on his batting average, but that is something that he can control to an extent. His BABIP is most likely similar to his career norms, and right around .285 is probably where he would normalize to.

Summary

McGehee is losing his eligibility at 2B for 2011, as he did not play a single game there with Rickie Weeks being healthy all season. But he's still going to be a top-10 3B to start next year, and I think that he could very likely post a line of .280, 25 home runs, 100 runs batted in, and 75 runs scored. Definitely a very solid producer, both for his real life team and for fantasy teams as well.

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