Pick 6 (or fewer) keepers

by PrincetonCubs on Oct 12, 2010 4:20 PM EDT

I won the league this year, so I will be picking last. League specs: 12-teams, rotisserie 5x5 scoring, with positions of C-1b-2b-ss-3b-2b/ss-1b/3b-lf-cf-rf-of-util and ten open pitching slots (most players had 3-4 relievers going at any time, the rest starters.)

I had some fortuitous pickups during the season, and well-timed trades--for example, Dotel and Carlos Santana for Ervin Santana and Jason Kubel, a couple days before Dotel got traded and Santana’s knee got blown out--so luck was definitely involved in my championship run. My team had great balance overall, which was mainly due to getting moderate to very good production out of all of my hitters, w/o any one of them really being great, making picking keepers kind of difficult. My pitchers, however, were awesome, but I’m always reluctant to go too pitching-heavy w/ keepers.

With that in mind, I’m interested in opinions on six or fewer keepers from the list below. This league counts every keeper as a pick starting from the top of the draft (i.e. first keeper counts as your 1st round draft pick, two keepers means you lose your 1st and 2nd rd picks, etc. Keep nobody, you get all your picks.)

Here’s the list I’m considering:

Hitters:

Gaby Sanchez

Ben Zobrist

Pedro Alvarez

Evan Longoria

Juan Uribe (I know he probably overachieved, but he has great position versatility)

BJ Upton

Pitchers:

Dan Hudson

My initial gut-check list was Longoria, Bruce, Rasmus, King Felix, Hanson, and Kershaw, but three pitchers make me nervous, no matter how good they are...so I am very interested in any opinions. Thanks!

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Comments

Pence

I would consider substituting Pence for Hanson or Rasmus, even though I like Rasmus alot. The thing to consider here is…would your 6, or fewer, keepers go in the first 6 rounds in a non-keeper league draft.
That’s how I would approach it.
Kershaw
Felix
Longoria
All 3 COULD go in the first 6 rounds of a non-keeper league draft. Not so sure about the others though…maybe Pence.

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by Ray Guilfoyle on Oct 12, 2010 5:49 PM EDT reply actions

Definite Keepers: Hernandez, Kershaw, Longoria
Practically a Definite Keeper: Hanson
Bubble Keepers: Bruce, Rasmus, Upton, Pence, Buchholz

I would probably be inclined to not keep anyone but the 3 or maybe 4 and keep those picks instead. As much as I like that group of outfielders, I think you could probably get them back later in the draft.

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by Jason Hunt on Oct 12, 2010 8:14 PM EDT reply actions

There is a reason why you won last year

And you shouldn’t go away from that reason because of a philosophical conundrum. Keep
Felix
Kershaw
Buchholz
Hanson
Longoria
Bruce

Your SPs are your bread and butter, stay with them and don’t overthink it…

by thomasps3 on Oct 13, 2010 10:03 AM EDT reply actions

+1

I would tend to agree with this minus Bruce. Just keep 5 total.

by acr on Oct 13, 2010 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions

this list

with Alvarez instead of Bruce. I’m a big believer in his power, and it should show up in bunches next year

If everybody likes you, then either no one knows anything about you, or you're dead.

by Archie A on Oct 14, 2010 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions

interesting

you think Alvarez is worth (at least) a 6th round pick in a 12-team league? I like him a lot too, but going into next year, his K-rate was somewhat worrisome to me, plus I already have a 3b (though he’d definitely play at the 1b/3b slot.)

by PrincetonCubs on Oct 14, 2010 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions

already having a 3b

is operating under the assumption that I’d keep Longoria

by PrincetonCubs on Oct 14, 2010 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions

Two no brainers, then question marks

Longoria and Felix as your #1 and #2 picks are solid. Kershaw and Hanson probably. However, after that, it gets choppy.

In a 12-teamer with you picking last, your 3rd and 4th round picks might be some of the first amongst those not being kept. Even if each team keeps all 6 and you keep two, then your first two picks are equivalent to #69 and #70, which is around where Rasmus and Bruce would go. However, Kershaw and Hanson would go before that. I really like both pitchers, and it’s probably worth keeping them. If you keep the three pitchers and Longoria, it’ll give you a couple extra early picks that you could use to get the OF’ers back or to go for some infielders.

Do owners usually keep all 6, or are there some owners that go just for studs. It might be good to look at the last few years and see what kind of talent is out there after the keeper decisions. If owners sell off all keeper-worthy guys outside their top 6, then it might be worth keeping Pence and Rasmus since the alternatives won’t be as good (CF does inflate Rasmus’ value). My first thought, though, is that some owners will throw back some players that you’d rather own (Phillips, Werth, Youk, Kendry, Elvis seem like guys that might slip through)

by QuinnTheEzkamo on Oct 14, 2010 5:18 PM EDT reply actions