Fantasy Baseball: Hitting Sleepers-Worst Hitters By BABIP In 2010

by Ray Guilfoyle on Oct 11, 2010 8:00 AM EDT in Baseball

When looking to find undervalued hitters going into your 2011 fantasy drafts, you might want to take a look at the the hitters who underperformed their expectations in 2010. You can start by looking at those hitters who were "unlucky" at the plate. By unlucky, I mean, those hitters who had the lowest BABIP in 2010.

After the jump, we'll take a look at the hitters who had the lowest BABIP in 2010, courtesy of Fangraphs:

Name	Team	BB%	K%	BB/K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	Spd	BABIP	wRC	wRAA	wOBA
Change page: < 1 2 3 4 5 > \| Displaying page 1 of 5, items 1 to 35 of 149.
Aaron Hill	Blue Jays	7.1 %	16.1 %	0.48	.205	.271	.394	.665	.189	2.6	.196	52.5	-14.1	.291
Carlos Pena	Rays	14.9 %	32.6 %	0.55	.196	.325	.407	.732	.211	2.7	.222	69.1	2.2	.326
Jose Bautista	Blue Jays	14.6 %	20.4 %	0.86	.260	.378	.617	.995	.357	4.4	.233	134.1	55.6	.422
Carlos Lee	Astros	5.7 %	9.8 %	0.63	.246	.291	.417	.708	.170	2.3	.238	67.6	-7.0	.308
Carlos Quentin	White Sox	9.5 %	18.3 %	0.60	.243	.342	.479	.821	.236	3.5	.241	75.3	14.7	.356
Kurt Suzuki	Athletics	6.1 %	9.9 %	0.67	.242	.303	.366	.669	.123	3.2	.245	51.5	-11.0	.296
Aramis Ramirez	Cubs	6.7 %	19.4 %	0.38	.241	.294	.452	.745	.211	1.9	.245	58.2	-0.1	.321
Jose Lopez	Mariners	3.7 %	11.1 %	0.35	.239	.270	.339	.609	.099	2.2	.254	45.2	-26.3	.268
Juan Uribe	Giants	7.8 %	17.7 %	0.49	.248	.310	.440	.749	.192	2.3	.256	66.4	0.4	.322
Cesar Izturis	Orioles	4.9 %	11.2 %	0.47	.230	.277	.268	.545	.038	4.2	.257	29.0	-29.9	.248
Mark Reynolds	Diamondbacks	13.9 %	42.3 %	0.39	.198	.320	.433	.753	.234	4.1	.257	71.8	3.3	.328
Alcides Escobar	Brewers	6.5 %	13.8 %	0.51	.235	.288	.326	.614	.091	6.4	.264	40.9	-22.5	.270
Yuniesky Betancourt	Royals	3.9 %	11.5 %	0.36	.259	.288	.405	.692	.146	2.8	.267	57.4	-10.1	.300
Mark Teixeira	Yankees	13.1 %	20.3 %	0.76	.256	.365	.481	.846	.225	2.0	.268	108.4	26.6	.367
Alberto Callaspo	- - -	5.2 %	7.5 %	0.74	.265	.302	.374	.675	.109	3.5	.269	56.6	-12.4	.295
Jeff Francoeur	- - -	6.0 %	17.8 %	0.37	.249	.300	.383	.683	.134	4.2	.270	47.2	-10.5	.295
Ty Wigginton	Orioles	7.7 %	20.0 %	0.43	.248	.312	.415	.727	.167	1.4	.270	72.2	-2.4	.316
Kevin Kouzmanoff	Athletics	4.1 %	17.4 %	0.25	.247	.283	.396	.679	.149	2.6	.270	55.3	-12.0	.296
Vernon Wells	Blue Jays	7.7 %	14.2 %	0.60	.273	.331	.515	.847	.242	3.7	.272	95.3	21.0	.362
Shane Victorino	Phillies	8.2 %	13.5 %	0.67	.259	.327	.429	.756	.170	7.6	.273	83.6	9.2	.339

The one player that jumps out at me is Blue Jays outfielder Jose Baustista, who had a career year in 2010 with 54 HRs, yet had a career low BABIP of just .233. What does that tells you about Bautista in 2011? I am not a buyer, but will say I am shocked at his .233 BABIP.

Another guy who underperformed in 2010 was Astros outfielder Carlos Lee. I was expecting a 30-100-.300 season from him and he responded with a 24-89-.246 season. Does he bounce back in 2010? I am not sure, but I can see him being very cheap in auction leagues.

Yankees first baseman Mark Teixeira did not underperform in the power stats in 2010, but did underperform in the BA category hitting just .256, and I can see him bouncing back in that category in 2011. His .268 BABIP was the worst of his career, and below his career BABIP of .303.

Another guy I will draft in 2011, expecting a bounce back, is Cubs third baseman Aramis Ramirez. I think he can return to the 2008 version where he went 27-111-.289, assuming he can stay healthy. His .245 BABIP was his lowest since 2002 when he was with the Pirates, and well below his career BABIP of .287.

Brewers SS Alcides Escobar is another hitter who had a career worst BABIP in 2010, albeit in his first major league season. Escobar had a .264 BABIP in 2010, but had BABIPs of .297, .369, .369 and .343 in the minors. He is known to be a good contact hitter with no power, so I can see him improving his BA in 2011, after hitting just .235 in 2010.

Poll

Who will have a bounce back year in 2011: Aramis Ramirez or Carlos Lee?

Ramirez

38 votes

Lee

13 votes

both

9 votes

neither

25 votes

85 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

Bautista

When 1/3 of your hits go for HR and HR are not counted in BABIP, you can see some funky numbers. I wouldn’t put too much into it, other than perhaps knowing that Bautista relies almost entirely on home runs to be valuable.

by Kenneth Arthur on Oct 11, 2010 2:29 PM EDT reply actions