Attention all Boston Pitchers: Put the Ball in Play

by ILLZ on Jan 6, 2010 10:44 AM EST

There's been much ballyhoo about the Red Sox being borderline obsessed with defense this offseason. Whether or not this characterization is true, the fact remains that they will be fielding one of the greatest defensive teams of my generation. Let's take a look at how they fare around the diamond:

The first number was their UZR/150 games in 2009, and the second number is where that UZR ranks within the rest of the players at their position.

1B - Kevin Youkilis, 15.2, 2nd

2B - Dustin Pedroia, 10.6, 6th

3B - Adrian Beltre - 21.0, 3rd

SS - Marco Scutaro - 1.0, 17th

RF - J.D. Drew - 15.7, 6th

CF - Mike Cameron - 10.3, 8th

LF - Jacoby Ellsbury - (18.3), 29th (Note - this number was his CF value)

That gives them 6 out of 7 above average defenders, with 5 of them being truly elite. Even their bench is stacked with Jed Lowrie and Jeremy Hermida being well regarded defensively.

Now, the obvious question from a baseball standpoint is: Will they have enough offense and pitching to overcome this defensive approach? It's a difficult question to answer. Fortunately for us fantasy leaguers, we don't have to! All we need to do is upgrade the Boston pitchers appropriately for fantasy baseball. I'm willing to bet most of them experience career lows in BABIP and easily outperform their xERA or FIP (depending on which you tend to prefer). We could see a truly fantastic season out of Beckett, Lester, or Lackey (read: sub 3.00 ERA), deserved or not. Even Wakefield will be useful considering all the balls he puts in play.

Poll

How much will you upgrade your evaluations of Boston pitchers for 2010 with the Red Sox defense in mind?

A lot: Defense is the hidden factor in baseball.

16 votes

Moderately: Give them all a decent bump.

35 votes

Minimally: Maybe to decide a tie breaker.

27 votes

Not at all: To hell with defense.

0 votes

78 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

Defense

I remember my old Bill James books talking about range and defense…. so i’m sure i’m way behind the more modern ways of calculating the impact of defense.

That being said…. as a Sox fan I would have felt better about our defense if our strength was up the middle…. catcher/SS/2B/CF.
We don’t have a really great defensive catcher…. and our staff is not good at holding runners
SS Scutaro? Phhhhhtttttt average AT BEST
2B Pedroia Better than average… but not a gold glover
CF Cameron? He has a better arm than Ellsbury… and may be the pick of the litter up the middle.

But if you’re building a team to beat the Yankees….. what good will that defense do us on the road against the Yankees? That park is launching pad…. the game will be decided by walks and home runs. We have a bunch of guys who can walk… but where is out pure power hitter?

We’ll have a bunch of “elite” fielders watching the ball sail over their heads into the stands. And our team will have a ton of LOB.

by Bob_24798 on Jan 6, 2010 12:32 PM EST reply actions

Red Sox Pitchers

Aren’t Red Sox SP already drafted based on the hopes of Wins?

I could conceive a theory that the relievers will be slightly better as their ratios are more suspectible to the one good defensive play as a hit turns into an out.

Even then, I am not sure how this helps the typical daily transactions fantasy player. Over the course of 33 starts or 50 relief appearances, I expect to see improved ratios, but will those pitchers have started in the games that saw Beltre or Cameron kill a two-out rally?

by faketeams on Jan 6, 2010 1:17 PM EST reply actions

I don’t personally draft Red Sox SP’s (or any pitchers on good teams) based on the notion that they’re going to get more wins. Wins are largely unpredictable. The value this defense will provide will be realized mostly in ERA and a little bit in WHIP, IMO.

Are you saying the fantasy positives for Red Sox pitchers having superb defenders behind them will be negated by the fact that the offense won’t be as able as in past years to provide run support, and therefore wins?

by ILLZ on Jan 6, 2010 1:57 PM EST up reply actions