Um...Maybe?

I think the net gain on O with the OF changes is negative. The net gain at SS is positive. The biggest improvement on offense comes from the 2009 trade for Victor Martinez, though.

The chat format gets the blame for Neyer’s answer although citing a 37-year-old’s past performance as justification seems a bit weak. There be risk in dat dere player. His last three AVGs were .250, .243 and .242 with Ks of 156, 142 and 160 respectively.

Like pretty much every other league, MLB teams copycat others, especially when they see another team improve. So maybe ask the Tigers? Concentrating on D seemed to turn things in the right direction for them. Detroit turned their attention to D and finished lower pretty much across the board offensively in 2009 vs 2008 yet finished 12 wins better.

I wish I could find their home/road splits and see how they faired on the road. That would seem to be their nemesis- after they get out of that walled up back alley in Boston.

John Dewan’s Sttat of the Week-

The Red Sox Believe in Defense
January 12, 2010
The Boston Red Sox fell from an estimated 20 Defensive Runs Saved as a team in 2008 to second worst in baseball at 52 Runs Saved last year. This, no doubt, was a key contributing factor for the pitching staff’s increased ERA. Mike Lowell played through a hip injury that turned a previously good defender into an abysmal one, totaling -18 Runs Saved at third. Additionally, young shortstop Jed Lowrie hit the DL early in 2009, forcing Nick Green, Alex Gonzalez, and the defensively-challenged Julio Lugo into the lineup as fill-ins. The team acquired another bat in Victor Martinez, a notoriously bad defensive catcher.
Recognizing their defensive shortcomings, General Manager Theo Epstein has brought in three defensively-minded acquisitions this offseason: Adrian Beltre, Marco Scutaro, and Mike Cameron. Here’s how each performed in 2009 compared to the Red Sox at their respective positions:
Red Sox Offseason Acquisitions
Player Position Runs Saved
Adrian Beltre 3B 22
Red Sox 2009 3B -18
-- —- —-
Marco Scutaro SS 12
Red Sox 2009 SS -19
- —- —-
Mike Cameron CF 3
Red Sox 2009 CF -10
- —- —-
Total Acquisitions 3B/SS/CF 37
Red Sox 2009 3B/SS/CF -47
Difference 84
Source: Bill James Online
If the new acquisitions manage to repeat their performances from last year, that’s an upgrade of 84 runs on defense alone. Beltre, Scutaro, and Cameron all had defensive seasons consistent with their previous seasons, based on Defensive Runs Saved, so a repeat of 2009 isn’t out of the question.
Additionally, the Red Sox will move centerfielder Jacoby Ellsbury to replace average defender Jason Bay in left field, where Ellsbury’s weak arm can hide and his range will shine. Based on his previous performance at the corner outfield spots, Ellsbury is likely to be a five to ten run defensive improvement over Bay.
Using the rule of thumb that 10 runs equals one win, defense could boost Boston as many as eight or nine wins beyond their 2009 win total. While the Red Sox haven’t signed any big name free agent hitters (though they did add pitcher John Lackey), it is our estimation that improved defense alone will easily more than make up for lost offensive production (primarily the loss of Jason Bay).

I think the marked out (line through) wording was from a negative sign placed before the number 52- it’s not anything more than that

The advocates state three years of data are needed to make more conclusive decisions on whether a player is what the stat says he is. Think about the length of a major league career and then ask whether three years of data can be reliably counted upon to exist.

Historically, the defensive data is bound by those games that can be watched and charted. How far back can we go? The more advanced the defensive metric (and the less it relies on fielding percentage, assists and putouts), the less historical games are available.

Out of curiosity do the defensive metrics somehow incorporate “luck” like many of the hitting and pitching metrics do? That’s one variable that turns me off to metric theories altogether.

If Bill James deems defensive sabermetrics reliable enough to use professionally (i.e. for his employer, the Red Sox), then I’m willing to concede any doubt I may have. He has far more tools and resources than any of us. He’s not a blogger, he’s not writing for a website, he’s not a low paid FanGraphs employer… he’s Bill Fucking James!

From today’s Boston Globe:

"We haven’t been doing it all our lives. We’ve had pretty good methods now for five or six years. I’ve been doing the [offensive] stuff all my life. I know what’s a normal gap between two seasons [offensively] and what isn’t. I don’t know the same [defensively].’’

In that regard, James is interested to see how the coming season plays out for the Sox.

"What I’m most curious about in 2010 is how much better we’re going to be defensively,’’ he said. "I don’t think anyone questions that we’re going to have a better defensive team. But are we going to be as much better defensively as we want to believe we are, and is that going to have as much impact on [the pitching staff] as we hope it does?’’

The Sox won 95 last season. If they win 92, did it not work? If they win 100, did it?

Faketeams, what is your overall argument here?