Fantasy Baseball: Who Is The First Round Bust in 2010??

by Ray Guilfoyle on Jan 31, 2010 9:00 AM EST in Baseball

I play in 3 competitive NL-only fantasy/roto leagues every year, and have done so for the past 3 years. But only one of the leagues is a straight draft, non-keeper, league. Every year at least one player that was drafted in the first round turns out to be a bust.

In 2009, there were three: Jose Reyes, David Wright and Manny Ramirez. I was looking at the ESPN mock draft that took place last week, trying to guess who will be the 2010 first round bust. Let's take a look at the first round and then I will discuss a few candidates:

1. Albert Pujols

2, Hanley Ramirez

3. Alex Rodriguez

4. Matt Kemp

5. Ryan Braun

6. Chase Utley

7. Carl Crawford

8. Miguel Cabrera

9. Prince Fielder

10. David Wright

OK. Everyone knows I am not shy in saying that Wright is not a first round pick, especially with Tim Lincecum, Joe Mauer, Evan Longoria, and Ryan Howard still on the board. But, Wright's too easy. I will give you two candidates who could be first round busts in 2010.

1. Carl Crawford-I will never draft a big SB guy in the first round, unless he can hit 25+ HRs for me as well. Crawford at 7 is too high for me. Sure he will get you 50 SBs and low double digit HRs, but you cannot pass up a Ryan Howard and his 45-140 projection for 2010.

2. Matt Kemp-this choice will surprise many people, because I may be one of the biggest Kemp supporters, but there is a slight chance that Kemp does not meet my 30-30 projection for him in 2010. It is also possible that he doesn't match his 2009 season-26-101-97-34-.297-.352-.490. Bypassing Ryan Braun and Chase Utley at the 4 for Kemp could be too much for many fantasy owners (I am not one of them).

Poll

Who will be the bigger 1st round bust in 2010?

Kemp

57 votes

Crawford

125 votes

Other

55 votes

237 votes | Poll has closed

Tweet Comment 9 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

Call me crazy

But I might be inclined to say M-Cab considering his off the field issues. Addiction (if that truly is the stage he’s at) is difficult to overcome, no matter your situation in life.

I don’t know about Crawford – He’s in a walk year so I think he’ll be fine…

You mention Ryan Howard – do you have him ranked higher than Teixera? I struggle deciding between Teixera and Fielder at 2 and 3 at 1B, with Howard being a distant 4th.

by ILLZ on Jan 31, 2010 10:25 AM EST reply actions

you're crazy

by rmarx on Jan 31, 2010 10:33 AM EST up reply actions

Crazy about what? M-Cab being the bust or Howard being 4th at 1B?

by ILLZ on Jan 31, 2010 10:36 AM EST up reply actions

Howard

he puts up 46-140 on average over the past 3 years, and that doesn’t include his 58-149 season in 2006. The power puts him ahead of Tex in my book. And the consistency in the power puts him ahead of Fielder. sure the BA is nothing to write home about, but he has less risk in his power projections, especially in that lineup and ballpark.

raygu
www.faketeams.com
www.sbnation.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Jan 31, 2010 10:48 AM EST up reply actions

Risk management...

is precisely why I’d take Teixera and Fielder over Howard. With Howard’s contact problems all it takes is a bit of bad BABIP luck and you’ll get a .250 BA (see 2008), plus he’s hitting lefties worse and worse, 3 years running. Could be reversible, he’s still young enough, and these are just minor blips… but to be honest I don’t want any blips at all in the first round.

by ILLZ on Jan 31, 2010 3:06 PM EST up reply actions

Howard

I draft for the power not the BA….46-140 is tough to beat.

raygu
www.faketeams.com
www.sbnation.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Jan 31, 2010 3:25 PM EST up reply actions

Crawford, fairly easily

Give me Ellsbury a few rounds later. Let me fill up with power in the first couple rounds. I never like taking an OF in the first round anyway.

Manny could also be a bust….HOPEFULLY!

by rmarx on Jan 31, 2010 10:34 AM EST reply actions

Agreed about Ellsbury

He’ll definitely provide almost the same production for a fraction of the price. The thing with Crawford has always been that we’re all waiting for the 25 HR power to develop. That door is almost closed.

by ILLZ on Jan 31, 2010 10:37 AM EST reply actions

If anyone drafts Crawford in the first round

they are insane. Unless you are building a team absed on speed/stolen bases and average, not a good choice. Not saying he isn’t a good player or anything, but not deserving of a first round pick.

by sal007 on Feb 3, 2010 5:41 PM EST reply actions