I play in 3 competitive NL-only fantasy/roto leagues every year, and have done so for the past 3 years. But only one of the leagues is a straight draft, non-keeper, league. Every year at least one player that was drafted in the first round turns out to be a bust.
In 2009, there were three: Jose Reyes, David Wright and Manny Ramirez. I was looking at the ESPN mock draft that took place last week, trying to guess who will be the 2010 first round bust. Let's take a look at the first round and then I will discuss a few candidates:
4. Matt Kemp
5. Ryan Braun
6. Chase Utley
10. David Wright
OK. Everyone knows I am not shy in saying that Wright is not a first round pick, especially with Tim Lincecum, Joe Mauer, Evan Longoria, and Ryan Howard still on the board. But, Wright's too easy. I will give you two candidates who could be first round busts in 2010.
1. Carl Crawford-I will never draft a big SB guy in the first round, unless he can hit 25+ HRs for me as well. Crawford at 7 is too high for me. Sure he will get you 50 SBs and low double digit HRs, but you cannot pass up a Ryan Howard and his 45-140 projection for 2010.
2. Matt Kemp-this choice will surprise many people, because I may be one of the biggest Kemp supporters, but there is a slight chance that Kemp does not meet my 30-30 projection for him in 2010. It is also possible that he doesn't match his 2009 season-26-101-97-34-.297-.352-.490. Bypassing Ryan Braun and Chase Utley at the 4 for Kemp could be too much for many fantasy owners (I am not one of them).