A Closer Look: Victor Martinez
by ILLZ on Jan 30, 2010 11:10 AM EST
23 comments
V-Mart is entering his first full season in the Boston lineup, where he OPS'ed .912 last season in 211 AB's (75 points higher than his career mark). Expectations are high. I'd like to temper them a bit.
It's obvious that Martinez is one of the elite catcher options in mixed leagues. If you throw out his injury plagued 2008 season, declaring it the outlier that it likely was, his peripherals are remarkably stable. Walk rate, contact percentage, GB/FB splits, HR/F... all of them. His value lies in his reliability, not his production.
The reason I'm not going bananas over V-Mart this season is primarily based on the Red Sox playing time situation. In previous seasons, Martinez would play first base on his off days from catching, effectively adding about 50-100 AB's per season that most other catchers won't get. That's going to be difficult to do with Boston this season. I'm hard pressed to see them sitting either Youkilis or Beltre to make room for Martinez, considering their new emphasis on defense. It doesn't make much sense to sit the "elite" defensive options in an effort to get a marginally better bat in the lineup. So I expect him to get the usual catcher's worth of AB's, which, just by pure math, means he'll be less productive.
Now, the second thing that's got me a bit worried is Victor's production as a catcher as opposed to playing first base. It's generally accepted that catching is a physically daunting task and it takes a toll on a player's offensive abilities (Well, unless you're a juiced up Mike Piazza... but that's neither here nor there). Previously, Martinez never really played enough first base to get a big enough sample size to draw any real conclusions. Last year was different. He got 255 AB's at 1B and 317 at C, and the OPS split is remarkable, .942/.783. I'm not saying he's going to OPS .783 for the whole year and leave owner's frustrated. I'm simply saying don't expect that .942 either.
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DH
My guess is that Francona will try to get VMart at bats at DH, especially when the Sox are facing a LHP. I agree VMart may see less ABs than he did in Cleveland, but still more than the typical catcher.
I also call BS on the “juiced up Piazza” comment. There is no evidence whatsoever Piazza took steroids so if you are going to accuse him you have to more or less accuse anyone who played in the last 10-15 years
Piazza 'roids
In Rocket That Fell To Earth, Pearlman reported that it was common knowledge amongst the press that Piazza used. Piazza told them off the record and that was enough to keep the press quiet.
Evidence? No, there isn’t any firm evidence. But if you take a look at his numbers, his physical build, and his lack of college success, and throw that together in context with the era he played in, it’s not too hard to ascertain he was on PED’s. I’m not detracting anything he accomplished, by the way. He was a great hitter. Virtually everyone was juicing and he was still better than most of the juicers. I’m just saying, in this post, that PED’s probably helped him recover from the daily grind of catching 9 innings of baseball.
Also see: Javy Lopez, Ivan Rodriguez
DB11
throwing out the support for Piazza. It wouldn’t suprise me that he did. The back acne thing is interesting.
how about Bagwell? anyone think he did? I remember seeing pics of him before and after they started testing, and the differences was pretty apparent.
raygu
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Jan 31, 2010 9:48 AM EST up reply actions
Ray
The biggest one I can’t make up my mind on is Jim Thome. He’s always been big, but not body builder big, and I remember reading an article about 10 years ago that said he ate something like 6 eggs and 12 pieces of bacon for breakfast every morning. That doesn’t sound like someone who works out and sticks needles in their rear end to me. But I still can’t personally rule him out, I don’t know why.
again, no evidence
if there is no evidence, you can’t just accuse the guy. and no, i am not buying pearlstein’s story about piazza’s back acne…that is a lot more gossip than actual fact.
I would not at all be surprised if Piazza took steroids. That said, I don’t think it is fair to take a random shot at a guy, based on zero evidence, in a post that has nothing to do with Mike Piazza or steroids. I mean Johnny Bench had some great years…was he on roids? Yogi Berra? Are you going to accuse Mauer who could barely get double digits in HRs in a season, then misses a month with a bad back, and then somehow hits 28???
why?
why can’t one speculate about him or any other player that played in that era? I think Pujols could be doing something, but I have no proof. I go back to the Lance Berkman comments after ARod was caught. Berkman said “this game is hard. It is hard to hit a baseball. When someone starts to make the game look clownish, you have to wonder.”-or something to that affect.
Now Pujols has already been questioned and he said he didn’t, but everyone lies about it.
I hope I am wrong because Pujols is a great hitter. But I have my doubts.
raygu
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www.sbnation.com
by Ray Guilfoyle on Jan 31, 2010 9:52 AM EST up reply actions
I have a question
Since we don’t “officially” know everybody who used PED’s it’s hard to do proper analysis. But, is there any evidence that it leads to a higher batting average? I know it would probably help to some extent…..but a lot of the other “official” steroid users had huge jumps in power but not so much in average. Bonds would be an exception when he started hitting .360 + But Canseco, Mcgwire, Sosa… those guys didn’t have as much jump in average as they did in power. Palmeiro was already a decent high average hitter…. then he just added th power.
I guess the point i’m trying to make…… Piazza hit for a high average from the very beginning. Even if he did take steroids to bump up the power… he still would have been one of the better offensive catchers of the modern era from his average alone.
Agreed.. sort of
Batting average is a comparatively bad measure of one’s offensive ability, so I’d take it with a grain of salt. That said, Piazza did know how to draw a walk, which is a skill that is indispensible from a real life (read: not fantasy) standpoint.
That is true
Yes he could take a walk… steroids can’t help you there. And I do agree with you about batting average being a poor effectiveness indicator.
But if he hit .320 every year with 15-20 homers he would still have been an all star catcher… and a HOF candidate. Even if his defense was lacking.
If you cut his seasonal home run totals in half, his numbers look pretty Mauer-like.
I guess i’m just saying… given his position…. and the high profile markets he played most of his career in…. even if he DID take PED’s (and I hope he didn’t) he probably still would have been an all star catcher without them.
Cut McGwire and Sosa’s home run numbers and see if they would have been as famous. There’s lots of 1B/OF’s that can hit .280 with 25 home runs… Catchers that hit .350 or .360 with some power…. not so much.
hah
u think piazaa without steroids would have hit ..350?? you must be on something that piazza was on if u think that cause u are crazy… and steroids DO help you take walks… when you take steroids you are quicker faster and stronger… you can wait longer when the pitcher throws the balls to swing at it because you are quicker and faster and stronger… so it DOES help you get more walks..
Steroids and Walks
Steroids do help a player draw more walks, but in a more roundabout way. If a player is bigger, stronger, faster, etc., then the pitcher is more wary of his ability to hit the ball out of the park, and therefore will pitch more carefully to him. Steroids won’t help a player’s eyesight or his ability to discern between balls and strikes, but it will influence the context of the at bat.
I agree with you ilz
Yes being bigger and faster will make people pitch around you (Barry Bonds would be the prime example).
Looking at some of the numbers it does appear that there is a bump in BB’s when a player appears to enter their PED primes.
I still think Piazza would have been an all star without the PED’s (if he was indeed taking them)…. and a fringe HOF candidate. I think a .300 average and 15-20 home runs a year was well within his natural skill abilities… and he played on a couple of really good teams so he would have had the exposure.
The thing I hate about the steroid era is that we have to have this debate over every player who mysteriously has a performance jump. It taints the game….. the Black Sox scandal tainted the integrity of the game and it took Babe Ruth to bring it back.
Testing needs to be mandatory…. and if you are caught you forfeit your salary…. and are banned for life. And all your personal stats are null and void.
The thing that makes baseball special is it’s rich history and it’s stats… lose that and you may as well be watching wrestling.
I’m stepping down from my soap box now.
Yes I may be crazy
Yes in the history of baseball there have been lots of players that have hit .350 without PED’s….and few high average catchers too…. Ernie Lombardi. Mickey Cochrane….Mauer etc. SO could Piaza be a .350 hitter without steroids….. sure could.
I don’t see how being bigger and stronger equates to walks….. otherwise MLB would be filled with 350 lb linemen. I can see if you have more power, people would pitch around you (Barry Bonds). I think walks are more attributable to knowing the strikezone and exercising patience.
If anyone is interested
I made this fanpost on Bucsdugout about a year ago. It’s in reference to steroids, Arod, and Bonds.
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2009/2/12/757632/all-praise-barry-bonds
I think at least 80% of players used in the era and I wouldn’t be surprised to see ANYONE come out and admit it. It was part of the game, whether we like it or not.
I tend to agree
I think the number is pretty high…. I think I’d probably say more than 50% were at least temporarily on something illegal… which is why I think it was a pretty level playing field.
Back to the point
Martinez will DH against LHP, Varitek hits LHP pretty well so I think he’ll catch and they’ll sit Ortiz.. He’ll get some time at 1B when Youk/Beltre have days off. He slotted to hit 3rd so they’ll keep him in the lineup
This is also partially dependent if Ortiz comes out of the gate as slow as he did last here...
If he does come out as slow, you will see VMart and JD Drew DH-ing much more often to keep them fresh.
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