Down On The Farm: Keith Law's Top 100 Prospects List

by Ray Guilfoyle on Jan 29, 2010 8:00 AM EST in Baseball

ESPN's Keith Law published his much anticipated Top 100 prospect list today, along with his Top 10 prospects for each organization, and his Top 10 who missed his Top 100 list.

I put a little more faith in Law's Top 100 lists than those from Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus, as his list varies somewhat from most of the Top 100 lists from BA and BP. He was on Andrew McCutchen even after a mediocre 2008 season, and we all know how McCutchen has fared since. Plus, he has answered every one of my emails over the last few years.

Here is his top 25 list, with a few surprises:

1. Jason Heyward, OF, ATL

2, Stephen Strasburg, SP, WAS

3. Carlos Santana, C, CLE

4. Buster Posey, C, SFG

5. Mike Stanton, OF, FLA

6. Desmond Jennings, OF, TB

7. Martin Perez, SP, TEX

8. Dustin Ackley, OF, SEA

9. Justin Smoak, 1B, TEX

10. Jesus Montero, C, NYY

11. Brian Matusz, SP, BAL

12. Starlin Castro, SS, CHC

13. Neftali Feliz, SP, TEX

14. Domonic Brown, OF, PHI

15. Wade Davis, SP, TB

16. Aroldis Chapman, SP, CIN

17. Jeremy Hellickson, SP, TB

18. Casey Kelly, SP, BOS

19. Aaron Hicks, SP, MIN

20. Brett Wallace, 1B, TOR

21. Logan Morrison, 1B, FLA

22. Tyler Matzek, SP, COL

23. Jenrry Mejia, SP, NYM

24, Michael Taylor, OF, OAK

25. Zach Britton, SP, BAL

One of the surprises is his ranking of Cubs shortstop prospect Starlin Castro. Here is what he said about him:

Castro is one of the most exciting position player prospects in the minors as a quick-twitch player with an electric bat and a hose for an arm at shortstop. As a hitter, Castro has lightning in his wrists and the ball absolutely flies off his bat. He's going to be an impact bat in the middle of the diamond and could arrive as early as late 2010.

This glowing report doesn't make my decision much easier come draft day in one of my NL-only keeper leagues. I have the #2 pick in the minor league draft, and I was leaning toward taking Dodgers SS prospect Dee Gordon due to his SB potential.

Another surprise for me was his ranking of Reds pitching prospect Aroldis Chapman. Here is an excerpt:

He projects comfortably as an ace with a fastball that sits in the upper 90s and has legitimately hit 101 with good life, and he will flash a plus slider with good tilt. He has a changeup but seldom had to use it because he could get hitters out with velocity and fastball movement. He's very likely to become a No. 1 starter, but there's enough risk here -- including the possibility he'll end up in relief -- to keep him out of the top 10.

In my keeper league, I have the #7, 10 and 13 picks, in addition to the #2 pick, in the minor league draft, so I am curious if Chapman can fall to me at the 7 or 10 picks.

I will have a few more excerpts on Saturday.

Poll

Who makes it to the majors first-Jesus Montero or Buster Posey?

Posey-the Giants will need his bat

90 votes

Montero-he's proved the bat is ready, throw him at DH as soon as Nick Johnson gets injured.

33 votes

123 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

Alvarez

IIRC, Pedro Alvarez was in the 30s. I don’t want to be one of those “I can’t take this list seriously if Player X is or isn’t on it, and if Player Y is ahead of Player Z” guys, but I really have a hard time seeing Alvarez anywhere outside the top 10.

by rmarx on Jan 29, 2010 9:10 AM EST reply actions

Wouldn’t the fact that Law’s list differs more BA’s or BP’s mean its less credible?

by ILLZ on Jan 29, 2010 9:15 AM EST reply actions

credible may not be the right word

Law has his own opinions and he is not afraid to voice them so you know his list is not influenced by groupthink. That is one of the things I find most valuable about his list.

Alvarez is a perfect example, most lists have him close to the top 10, Law has him at 35. Law points out that Alvarez struggles against LHP and has no defensive and that is why he is lower on his list than others, so he does give reasons.

Whether or not you believe in Law’s ability to evaluate prospects will determine whether or not you find his list is credible.

by DB11 on Jan 29, 2010 10:09 AM EST up reply actions

+1

Come on Alverez out of the top 25. I enjoy kieth law’s chats because he’s whitty. But I would construct a roster from his input

"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."

by fourfingerwoo on Jan 29, 2010 10:51 AM EST reply actions

Sorry first post on this site

and I drop the rock.“I wouldn’t”

"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."

by fourfingerwoo on Jan 29, 2010 10:53 AM EST reply actions

Matusz vs Kelly

Ok riddle me this batman. He is weak{11 is low balling the kid} on Matusz, a +control lefty, with a 4 pitch repertoire, and a heater in the low to mid 90’s. But rockets Kelly into the top 20, with almost identical “reports” from the right side. With Matusz in the show and Kelly tossing to scrubs why doesn’t he just say Kelly is better then Brian and get it off his chest.

"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."

by fourfingerwoo on Jan 29, 2010 11:04 AM EST reply actions

?

not sure i understand your criticism here…you are complaining about the 11th ranked prospect in baseball being “lowballed” but 11 is still pretty high, no? Not like he is 35. As a point of reference MLB has Matusz at 8, one Baseballhq writer has him at 10 the other at 5, and Sickels has him 3rd on his pitcher’s list (he does separate lists for hitters and pitchers) So Law is a bit low compared to the others but really is there that much of a difference between say 8 and 11?

by DB11 on Jan 29, 2010 12:41 PM EST up reply actions