Fantasy Baseball: Who Would You Rather Have-Justin Upton or Carl Crawford?

by Ray Guilfoyle on Jan 22, 2010 9:00 AM EST in Baseball

I was listening to the ESPN Fantasy Focus podcast with Matthew Berry and Nate Ravitz and they were discussing which outfielder is ranked third behind Ryan Braun and Matt Kemp for 2010-Justin Upton or Carl Crawford?

I suggest Upton should be the third outfielder taken in mixed league, and NL-only league, drafts as he can put up solid performance in 5 categories, while Crawford is more like 3.5 categories. Upton went 26-86-84-20-.300-.366-.532 in just 138 games in 2009, while Crawford went 15-68-96-60-.305-.364-.452 in 2009.

Bill James projects Crawford to go 12-62-82-41-.295-.346-.439 in 2010, while he projects Upton to go 28-90-93-19-.293-.371-.534 in 2010. Crawford's SBs would be hard to pass up, but I think Upton is ready to break out in a big way in 2010. I can easily see him hitting 30-35 HRs with 100+ RBI and 20 SBs this year.

Who would you rather draft?

Poll

Who would you rather draft in 2010: Justin Upton or Carl Crawford?

Upton

143 votes

Crawford

31 votes

neither

10 votes

184 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

Definitely not Upton

I haven’t begun my baseball research yet, but I wouldn’t take Upton over Crawford, for sure. Although he had a fantastic season at the age of 22, there are some things he has yet to overcome, and there is significant risk involved here.

First, his walk rate went down last year, which is a bit of a head scratcher. To me, it suggests he’s still learning (which he is, he’s only 23), and there may be more growing pains on the horizon. Second, I’m concerned about his power. His GB rate went up from 36% and 37% in ’07 and ’08 to 45%. Yet he netted more HR and slugged .532. How? Ahhhh there it is, HR/FB rate. It was 19%, up from 15% in ’08 and 9% in ’07. So the GB rate is alarming to me. He also experienced a career high in BABIP.

Now, I’m not saying he’s going to take a step back or anything of the sort, I’m simply saying that since he has only 3 years of pro ball under his belt, it’s tough to say with any accuracy what kind of skills he’s capable of. Of all those numbers I threw out, which are sustainable and which are outliers? Who knows. It’s too early. I’m tempering my expectations this season. I’d expect a baseline of .270-20-15 with significant upside potential.

by ILLZ on Jan 22, 2010 9:32 AM EST reply actions

HR/FB

That looks like a good regression stat

by faketeams on Jan 22, 2010 11:32 AM EST up reply actions

Agreed

It’s funny, this is exactly what we were talking about in your fan post. His hr/fb rate screams regression but we really don’t know what kind of rate he’s capable of sustaining because he he’s had so few AB’s. That said, I would expect some sort of regression. That coupled with the GB% is what has me worried about his power.

by ILLZ on Jan 22, 2010 3:54 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

Stats

I am not a Murray Chass anti-statist. I disregard those stats that I believe lie upon a foundation of crap. Without getting into it, my other bugaboo is claiming a contract has this much excess dollar value over what is being paid.

The GB% is worrisome. As is an expected regression backwards on his HR/FB. He played 132 games last year.

At his age and pedigree, I’m comfortable weighting those more than the fluctuating peripherals.

by faketeams on Jan 22, 2010 4:59 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah, I mean, he’s headed toward true stardom for sure. In the next 2-3 years he’ll probably be putting down some serious numbers. I just personally can’t justify ranking him as the 3rd best OF with this many question marks. I’d take Crawford over Upton for 2010 without thinking twice, now that I’ve had time to ponder.

by ILLZ on Jan 22, 2010 5:25 PM EST up reply actions

disagree

Upton hit well in a pretty poor lineup last season. Not that the lineup is vastly improved this season, they are getting CoJack back and added Laroche (ugh). I can see him improving his fly ball tendencies, or hitting less ground balls, with better pitch recognition.

raygu
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Jan 22, 2010 6:08 PM EST up reply actions

Definitely

He certainly could flip his G/F splits with better pitch recognition. The problem is that his pitch recognition took a step backwards last season (see walk rate). It’s definitely possible that he goes back to hitting fly balls the way he did in ‘07 and ’08, but it’s also just as possible that his BABIP goes back down (on the way to normalizing). Lots of holes here. Mini holes of course. But I don’t want too many mini holes in the 3rd best OF.

by ILLZ on Jan 22, 2010 9:49 PM EST up reply actions

Upton, and it isn't even close IMO

The only thing Crawford has on Upton is SBs. Upton will do better in nearly every other offensive stat than Crawford in 2010 (which he has already done in an injury-filled 2009).

Of course, I’m looking at offense only.

by rmarx on Jan 22, 2010 2:02 PM EST reply actions

Upton fo sheezy

I’ve got the biggest man-crush on Upton so I could be biased. He will have the ability put up excellent ppwer numbers and hit for a good average. Crawford’s value lies only in runs, stolen bases and average. Upton could go 100/30/100 and hit .300+ any day now.

by Ian, yo on Jan 22, 2010 3:16 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

Upton fo sheezy

by Ian, yo on Jan 22, 2010 3:43 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

crawford

super talented guy playing for a contract vs. a more talented guy that hasn,t shown the work ethic of a true superstar yet. just this season i will go with the guy looking for the payday. the only thing crawford does better is steal. but he will steal between 50-60. long term upton.

by svigen on Jan 23, 2010 2:15 AM EST reply actions