Fantasy Baseball: Will Roy Halladay Win 20 Games in 2010??

by Ray Guilfoyle on Jan 21, 2010 10:00 AM EST in Baseball

I was listening to the Baseball This Morning show yesterday with Steve Davis and Bill Ripken (why do the hosts of this show constantly change?), and Davis mentioned that by switching leagues Halladay can win 23-24 games in Philadelphia in 2010. I said to myself, we heard this talk about Johan Santana last year and there is no way he wins 20+ games with that bullpen.

Then I read Eric Karabell's blog where he was discussing his Top 11-20 rankings. He ranked Halladay at #17 and followed with this comment:

If anyone is going to win 20 games in 2010, I think it's Halladay or CC Sabathia

Before the hype starts, I want to put this one to rest now. I am not going to say he doesn't win 20 games, but I think it is unrealistic to expect that going into your 2010 drafts. Wins are so unpredictable and hinge on so many factors outside the control of the starting pitcher. This is why I think wins should be replaced as a category in fantasy leagues with a stat that is more predictable or consistent, like K/BB.

Does Halladay win 20 games in 2010?

Poll

Will Roy Halladay win 20 games in 2010?

Not a chance with that bullpen.

23 votes

Yes, he will get more run support than he did in Toronto.

105 votes

128 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

20 Wins

Pitchers don’t make enough starts to assume 20 Wins anymore. An elite fantasy pitcher should be projected to win 17 +/-2 W entering the season. Projecting higher than that is pure grabbing-out-of-nowhere guessing.

And a sign of an unserious projection.

by faketeams on Jan 21, 2010 10:17 AM EST reply actions

I agree and disagree

I agree that it’s very hard for pitchers to win 20 games nowadays, however I disagree that it’s grabbing out of nowhere guessing. Moving Halladay from the AL East into the NL should be good enough for 2-3 more Ws alone. And then add in the Phillies offense, and that should add 1 more W that he would’ve lost with no offense. This would allow Roy to have one bad day during the year. I think 20 is more than attainable by moving arguably one of the best (if not THE best) pitchers from the AL to one of the few great offensive teams in the NL.

by rmarx on Jan 21, 2010 1:12 PM EST up reply actions

Santana

how many 20 win seasons does he have in the NL? he was considered the best pitcher in baseball for several years and he has only ONE 20 win season. It is not easy to win 20 games when you start 34-35 games. Throw in the Phillies bullpen and I seriously doubt he will win 20 games.

raygu
www.faketeams.com
www.sbnation.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Jan 21, 2010 1:25 PM EST up reply actions

remember...

you’re talking about an extremely durable pitcher who has pitched 200+ innings each of the last 4 years, and has won 16, 16, 20, and 17 games in that span. The kicker is that he did this in the AL East! And, he’s thrown 29 CGs in those last 4 years. Yes, these numbers are comparable to Santana before he moved to the NL (with the exception of CGs), and you an easily come back in a year or two and say “I told you”, but by watching Halladay pitch, he’s better right now than Santana ever was, IMHO.

by rmarx on Jan 21, 2010 5:47 PM EST up reply actions

Agreed

I only use win potential as a tie breaker.. it’s so unpredictable.

I am, however, opposed to the idea of replacing it with K/BB ratio or another “skill”. Skills (K/BB, K/9, GB/FB%, etc.) are what lead to good stats. Exposing them as being vitally important are what gives us more knowledgeable fantasy leaguers the edge over competition that either doesn’t know about this stuff or just disregards it/brushes it off.

by ILLZ on Jan 21, 2010 12:02 PM EST reply actions

+1

by Xavier. on Jan 22, 2010 1:23 AM EST up reply actions

Bullpen

SInce when does Halladay need a bullpen?

by JJACK on Jan 21, 2010 12:30 PM EST reply actions

Exactly my thoughts. Halladay pitched less than 7 innings only 6 times all of last season. 6! There are plenty of pitchers out there who made it to 7 innings less than 6 times last year. Halladay doesn’t need a bullpen to keep his wins in tact.

We require, as a team, proper levels of pugnacity, testosterone, truculence and belligerence.

by Belligerent Burkie on Jan 21, 2010 12:40 PM EST up reply actions

well

unless he’s going all 9 innings, he does need a bullpen.

by rmarx on Jan 21, 2010 1:10 PM EST up reply actions

+1

raygu
www.faketeams.com
www.sbnation.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Jan 21, 2010 1:26 PM EST up reply actions

right

Thats reason why hes gonna have a record of close to 25-4 this year with 20 complete games. The bullpen might as well take every 5th day off.

by stazmanjr93 on Jan 21, 2010 4:00 PM EST up reply actions

I will bet any amount

he doesn’t go 25-4 with 20 complete games.

raygu
www.faketeams.com
www.sbnation.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Jan 21, 2010 6:35 PM EST up reply actions

Lotsa miles on that arm

He’s pitched a lot of innings over the last few years… and he isn’t getting any younger. If Phillie is either in the hunt…. or wraps up a playoff spot early… they may cut back on his innings a bit to protect their investment.

That being said….. You couldn’t ask for more consistency… and his K per 9 IP is back up to where it used to be. So he’s definitely a threat for 20 wins…. but it isn’t something you can count on. If he wins 18 for the Phillies I think they would consider it a successful trade.

But it isn’t money in the bank…… all it takes is one injury…

by Bob_24798 on Jan 21, 2010 8:13 PM EST reply actions